Postglacial vegetation and climate dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, central coastal British Columbia, Canada: palynological evidence from Tiny Lake.

A pollen-based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740?±?70 14C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860?±?50 14C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso- to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi-permanent air mass.

Late glacial interhemispheric climate dynamics revealed in South African hyrax middens

Our ability to identify the timing and extent of past major climate fluctuations is central to understanding changes in the global climate system. Of the events that have occurred in recent geological time, the Younger Dryas (YD, 13-11.5 ka), an abrupt return to near-glacial conditions during the last glacial-interglacial transition (ca. 18-11.5 ka), is one of the most widely reported. While this event is apparent throughout the Northern Hemisphere (Peteet, 1995), evidence for its occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere remains equivocal due to a lack of well-dated terrestrial records. Here we report high-resolution stable carbon and nitrogen isotope records obtained from a rock hyrax midden, revealing the first unequivocal terrestrial manifestation of the YD from the southern African subtropics. These results provide key evidence for the relative influence of the YD, and suggest that a subtropical-temperate transition zone existed along the oceanic Subtropical Front (similar to 41 degrees S) across the Southern Hemisphere, with the Northern Hemisphere exerting a strong influence on all but the higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere after the Heinrich Stadial 1 (15 ka).

Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

A commentary on climate change, stone decay dynamics and the ‘greening’ of natural stone buildings: new perspectives on ‘deep wetting’

Environmental controls on stone decay processes are rapidly changing as a result of changing climate. UKCP09 projections for the 2020s (2010–2039) indicate that over much of the UK seasonality of precipitation will increase. Summer dryness and winter wetness are both set to increase, the latter linked to projected precipitation increases in autumn and spring months. If so, this could increase the time that stone structures remain wet and possibly the depth of moisture penetration, and it appears that building stone in Northern Ireland has already responded through an increased incidence of algal ‘greening’.This paper highlights the need for understanding the effects of climate change through a series of studies of largely sandstone structures. Current and projected climatic trends are therefore considered to have aesthetic, physical and chemical implications that are not currently built into our models of sandstone decay, especially with respect to the role played by deep-seated wetness on sandstone deterioration and decay progression and the feedbacks associated with, for example surface algal growth. In particular,it is proposed that algal biofilms will aid moisture retention and further facilitate moisture and dissolved salt penetration to depth. Thus, whilst the outer surface of stone may continue to experience frequent wetting and drying associated with individual precipitation events, the latter is less likely to be complete, and the interiors of building blocks may only experience wetting/drying in response to seasonal cycling. A possible consequence of deeper salt penetration could be a delay in the onset of surface deterioration,but more rapid and effective retreat once it commences as decay mechanisms ‘tap into a reservoir of deep salt’.

Late Pleistocene climate change and landscape dynamics in the Eastern Alps: the inner-alpine Unterangerberg record (Austria)

Drill cores from the inner-alpine valley terrace of Unterangerberg, located in the Eastern Alps of Austria, offer first insights into a Pleistocene sedimentary record that was not accessible so far. The succession comprises diamict, gravel, sand, lignite and thick, fine grained sediments. Additionally, cataclastic deposits originating from two paleo-landslide events are present. Multi-proxy analyses including sedimentological and palynological investigations as well as radiocarbon and luminescence data record the onset of the last glacial period (Wurmian) at Unterangerberg at similar to 120-110 ka. This first time period, correlated to the MIS 5d, was characterised by strong fluvial aggradation under cold climatic conditions, with only sparse vegetation cover. Furthermore, two large and quasi-synchronous landslide events occurred during this time interval. No record of the first Early Wiirmian interstadial (MIS 5c) is preserved. During the second Early Wiirmian interstadial (MIS 5a), the local vegetation was characterised by a boreal forest dominated by Picea, with few thermophilous elements. The subsequent collapse of the vegetation is recorded by sediments dated to similar to 70-60 ka (i.e. MIS 4), with very low pollen concentrations and the potential presence of permafrost. Climatic conditions improved again between similar to 55 and 45 ka (MIS 3) and cold-adapted trees re-appeared during interstadials, forming an open forest vegetation. MIS 3 stadials were shorter and less severe than the MIS 4 at Unterangerberg, and vegetation during these cold phases was mainly composed of shrubs, herbs and grasses, similar to what is known from today's alpine timberline. The Unterangerberg record ended at similar to 45 ka and/or was truncated by ice during the Last Glacial Maximum. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of North Patagonian rainforests from fine-resolution pollen, charcoal and tree-ring analysis, Chonos Archipelago, Southern Chile

Fine-resolution palaeoecological and dendrochronological methods were used to investigate the impacts of climate change, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances on vegetation in the North Patagonian rainforest of southern Chile at decadal to century timescales during the late Holocene. A lake sediment mud–water interface core was collected from the northern Chonos Archipelago and analysed for pollen and charcoal. Dendrochronological analysis of tree cores collected from stands of Pilgerodendron uviferum close to the lake site was incorporated into the study. The combined analysis showed that the present mosaic of vegetation types in this region is a function of environmental changes across a range of timescales: millennial climate change, more recent natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and possibly short-term climatic variations. Of particular interest is the spatiotemporal distribution of Pilgerodendron uviferum dieback/burning in the Chonos Archipelago region.

Postglacial formation and dynamics of North Patagonian Rainforest in the Chonos Archipelago, Southern Chile

Pollen analysis of continuous sediment cores from two lakes in the northern Chonos Archipelago (44S) in southern Chile shows a complete postglacial record of vegetation change. The fossil records indicate that deglaciation was complete in the northern Chonos by at least 13,600 14Cyr BP. Ericaceous heath and grassland persisted for more than 600 years after deglaciation under the influence of dry/cold climates and frequent burning. Nothofagus-Pilgerodendron-Podocarpus forest, with modern analogues in the southern Chonos Archipelago, was established across the northern islands by 12,400 14Cyr BP under increasingly warm and wet climates. There is no evidence for a return to cooler climates during the Younger Dryas chronozone. The rise of Tepualia stipularis and Weinmannia trichosperma as important forest components between 10,600 and 6000 14Cyr BP may be associated withclimates that were warmer than present. The collapse of Pilgerodendron communities during this time may have been triggered by a combination of factors related to disturbance frequency including tephra deposition events, fire and climate change. After 6000 14Cyr BP Pilgerodendron recovers and Nothofagus-Pilgerodendron-Tepualia forest persists until the present. European logging and burning activity may have increased the susceptibility of North Patagonian Rainforest to invasion by introduced species and to future collapse of the long-lived Pilgerodendron communities.

Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator

External climate forcings-such as long-term changes in solar insolation-generate different climate responses in tropical and high latitude regions(1). Documenting the spatial and temporal variability of past climates is therefore critical for understanding how such forcings are translated into regional climate variability. In contrast to the data-richmiddle and high latitudes, high-quality climate-proxy records from equatorial regions are relatively few(2-4), especially from regions experiencing the bimodal seasonal rainfall distribution associated with twice-annual passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we present a continuous and well-resolved climate-proxy record of hydrological variability during the past 25,000 years from equatorial East Africa. Our results, based on complementary evidence from seismic-reflection stratigraphy and organic biomarker molecules in the sediment record of Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, reveal that monsoon rainfall in this region varied at half-precessional (similar to 11,500-year) intervals in phase with orbitally controlled insolation forcing. The southeasterly and northeasterly monsoons that advect moisture from the western Indian Ocean were strengthened in alternation when the inter-hemispheric insolation gradient was at a maximum; dry conditions prevailed when neither monsoon was intensified and modest local March or September insolation weakened the rain season that followed. On sub-millennial timescales, the temporal pattern of hydrological change on the East African Equator bears clear high-northern-latitude signatures, but on the orbital timescale it mainly responded to low-latitude insolation forcing. Predominance of low-latitude climate processes in this monsoon region can be attributed to the low-latitude position of its continental regions of surface air flow convergence, and its relative isolation from the Atlantic Ocean, where prominent meridional overturning circulation more tightly couples low-latitude climate regimes to high-latitude boundary conditions.

Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g. Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Evidence for progressive Holocene aridification in southern Africa recorded in Namibian hyrax middens: Implications for African Monsoon dynamics and the

Presented here are stable nitrogen isotope data from a rock hyrax (Procavia capensis) middens from northwestern Namibia that record a series of rapid aridification events beginning at ca. 3800 cal yr BP, and which mark a progressive decrease in regional humidity across the Holocene. Strong correlations exist between this record and other terrestrial and marine archives from southern Africa, indicating that the observed pattern of climate change is regionally coherent. Combined, these data indicate hemispheric synchrony in tropical African climate change during the Holocene, with similar trends characterising the termination of the 'African Humid Period' (AHP) in both the northern and southern tropics. These findings run counter to the widely accepted model of direct low-latitude insolation forcing, which requires an antiphase relationship to exist between the hemispheres. The combined dataset highlights: 1) the importance of forcing mechanisms influencing the high northern latitudes in effecting low-latitude climate change in Africa, and 2) the potential importance of solar forcing and variations in the Earth's geomagnetic shield in determining both long-term and rapid centennial-scale climate changes, identifying a possible mechanism for the variations marking the AHP termination in both the southern and northern tropics. (C) 2010 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics of the liver fluke, Fasciola hepatica: the effect of time and spatial separation on the genetic diversity of fluke populations in the Netherlands

An evaluation of the genetic diversity within Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) may provide an insight into its potential to respond to environmental changes, such as anthelmintic use or climate change. In this study, we determined the mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of >400 flukes from 29 individual cattle, from 2 farms in the Netherlands, as an exemplar of fasciolosis in a European context. Analysis of this dataset has provided us with a measure of the genetic variation within infrapopulations (individual hosts) and the diversity between infrapopulations within a herd of cattle. Temporal sampling from one farm allowed for the measurement of the stability of genetic variation at a single location, whilst the comparison between the two farms provided information on the variation in relation to distance and previous anthelmintic regimes. We showed that the liver fluke population in this region is predominantly linked to 2 distinct clades. Individual infrapopulations contain a leptokurtic distribution of genetically diverse flukes. The haplotypes present on a farm have been shown to change significantly over a relatively short time-period.

Evaluating periocidities in peat-based climate proxy records.

Proxy records derived from ombrotrophic peatlands provide important insights into climate change over decadal to millennial timescales. We present mid- to late- Holocene humification data and testate amoebae-derived water table records from two peatlands in Northern Ireland. We examine the repli- cation of periodicities in these proxy climate records, which have been precisely linked through teph- rochronology. Age-depth models are constructed using a Bayesian piece-wise linear accumulation model and chronological errors are calculated for each profile. A Lomb-Scargle Fourier transform-based spectral analysis is used to test for statistically significant periodicities in the data. Periodicities of c. 130, 180, 260, 540 and 1160 years are present in at least one proxy record at each site. The replication of these peri- odicities provides persuasive evidence that they are a product of allogenic climate controls, rather than internal peatland dynamics. A technique to estimate the possible level of red-noise in the data is applied and demonstrates that the observed periodicities cannot be explained by a first-order autoregressive model. We review the periodicities in the light of those reported previously from other marine and terrestrial climate proxy archives to consider climate forcing parameters. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Postglacial vegetation dynamics of western Tierra del Fuego

The southern fringes of the South American landmass provide a rare opportunity to examine the development of moorland vegetation with sparse tree cover in a wet, cool temperate climate of the Southern Hemisphere. We present a record of changes in vegetation over the past 17,000 years, from a lake in extreme southern Chile (Isla Santa Inés, Magallanes region, 53°38.97S; 72°25.24W), where human influence on vegetation is negligible. The western archipelago of Tierra del Fuego remained treeless for most of the Lateglacial period; Lycopodium magellanicum, Gunnera magellanica and heath species dominated the vegetation. Nothofagus may have survived the last glacial maximum at the eastern edge of the Magellan glaciers from where it spread southwestwards and established in the region at around 10,500 cal. yr BP. Nothofagus antarctica was likely the earlier colonizing tree in the western islands, followed shortly after by Nothofagus betuloides. At 9000 cal. yr BP moorland communities expanded at the expense of Nothofagus woodland. Simultaneously, Nothofagus species shifted to dominance of the evergreen Nothofagus betuloides and the Magellanic rain forest established in the region. Rapid and drastic vegetation changes occurred at 5200 cal. yr BP, after the Mt Burney MB2 eruption, including the expansion and establishment of Pilgerodendron uviferum and the development of mixed Nothofagus-Pilgerodendron-Drimys woodland. Scattered populations of Nothofagus, as they occur today in westernmost Tierra del Fuego may be a good analogue for Nothofagus populations during the Lateglacial in eastern sites.