An invasive-native mammalian species replacement process captured by camera trap survey random encounter models

Camera traps are used to estimate densities or abundances using capture-recapture and, more recently, random encounter models (REMs). We deploy REMs to describe an invasive-native species replacement process, and to demonstrate their wider application beyond abundance estimation. The Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus is a high priority endemic of conservation concern. It is threatened by an expanding population of non-native, European hares L. europaeus, an invasive species of global importance. Camera traps were deployed in thirteen 1 km squares, wherein the ratio of invader to native densities were corroborated by night-driven line transect distance sampling throughout the study area of 1652 km2. Spatial patterns of invasive and native densities between the invader’s core and peripheral ranges, and native allopatry, were comparable between methods. Native densities in the peripheral range were comparable to those in native allopatry using REM, or marginally depressed using Distance Sampling. Numbers of the invader were substantially higher than the native in the core range, irrespective of method, with a 5:1 invader-to-native ratio indicating species replacement. We also describe a post hoc optimization protocol for REM which will inform subsequent (re-)surveys, allowing survey effort (camera hours) to be reduced by up to 57% without compromising the width of confidence intervals associated with density estimates. This approach will form the basis of a more cost-effective means of surveillance and monitoring for both the endemic and invasive species. The European hare undoubtedly represents a significant threat to the endemic Irish hare.

Is childhood type 1 diabetes a wealth-related disease? An ecological analysis of European incidence rates

Aims/Hypothesis: To describe the epidemiology of childhood-onset Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes in Europe, the EURODIAB collaborative group has established prospective, geographically-defined registers of children diagnosed under 15 years. A total of 16,362 cases were registered by 44 centres during the period 1989-1994. The registers cover a population of approximately 28 million children with most European countries represented. Methods In most centres a primary and a secondary source of ascertainment were used so that the completeness of registration could be assessed by the capture-recapture method. Ecological correlation and regression analyses were used to study the relationship between incidence and various environmental, health and economic indicators. Findings: The standardised average annual incidence rate during the period 1989-94 ranged from 3.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia to 40.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in Finland. Indicators of national prosperity such as infant mortality (r= -0.64) and gross domestic product (r= 0.58) were most strongly and significantly correlated with incidence rate, and previously-reported associations with coffee consumption (r= 0.51), milk consumption (r= 0.58) and latitude (r= 0.40) were also observed. Conclusion/Interpretation: The wide variation in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rates within Europe could be partially explained by indicators of national prosperity. These indicators could reflect differences in environmental risk factors such as nutrition or lifestyle that are important in determining a country's incidence rate.

Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989-2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:

The aim of the study was to describe 20-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in 23 EURODIAB centres and compare rates of increase in the first (1989-1998) and second (1999-2008) halves of the period.

METHODS:

All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. Completeness of registration is assessed by capture-recapture methodology. Twenty-three centres in 19 countries registered 49,969 new cases of type 1 diabetes in individuals diagnosed before their 15th birthday during the period studied.

RESULTS:

Ascertainment exceeded 90% in most registers. During the 20-year period, all but one register showed statistically significant changes in incidence, with rates universally increasing. When estimated separately for the first and second halves of the period, the median rates of increase were similar: 3.4% per annum and 3.3% per annum, respectively. However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half for nine of the 21 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; five registers showed significantly higher rates of increase in the first half, and four significantly higher rates in the second half.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:

The incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes continues to rise across Europe by an average of approximately 3-4% per annum, but the increase is not necessarily uniform, showing periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions is warranted.

Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008

Objectives: To investigate seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008.
Methods: 23 population-based registers recorded date of diagnosis in new cases of clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years. Completeness of ascertainment was assessed through capture-recapture methodology and was high in most centres. A general test for seasonal variation (11df) and Edward's test for sinusoidal (sine wave) variation (2df) were employed. Time series methods were also used to investigate if meteorological data were predictive of monthly counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.
Results: Significant seasonal variation was apparent in all but two small centres, with an excess of cases apparent in the winter quarter. Significant sinusoidal pattern was also evident in all but two small centres with peaks in December (14 centres), January (5 centres) or February (2 centres). Relative amplitude varied from ±11% to ±39% (median ±18%). There was no relationship across the centres between relative amplitude and incidence level. However there was evidence of significant deviation from the sinusoidal pattern in the majority of centres. Pooling results over centres, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, but with significantly less variation in those aged under 5 years. Boys showed marginally greater seasonal variation than girls. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four sub-periods of the 20 year period. In most centres monthly counts of cases were not associated with deviations from normal monthly average temperature or sunshine hours; short term meteorological variations do not explain numbers of cases diagnosed.
Conclusions: Seasonality with a winter excess is apparent in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5s show less marked variation. The seasonal pattern changed little in the 20 year period.

EURODIAB childhood type 1 diabetes incidence registers - results from the first 20 years. Oral presentation at the 47th EASD Annual Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal.

Background and aims: In 1989 a number of registers in Europe began recording new cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged under 15 years using a common protocol. Trends in incidence rate during the 20 year period 1989-2008 are described.
Materials and methods: All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. When possible, completeness of registration in each register is assessed using capture-recapture methodology by identifying primary and secondary sources of ascertainment. The completeness estimate is obtained by identifying the numbers of cases identified by the primary source only, by the secondary source only and by both the primary and the secondary sources.
Results: Other registers have joined the Group since 1989, and 21 registers in 15 countries continue to submit registration data. In the first five years (1989-93) incidence rates varied from 3.2 per 100,000 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to 25.8 per 100,000 in the Stockholm area of Sweden. In the last five years (2004-2008) these same two registers again had the lowest and highest incidence, but rates had increased to 5.8 per 100,000 and 36.6 per 100,000, respectively. During the 20 year period all but two of the 21 registers showed statistically significant rates of increase (median rate of increase 4% per annum), and similar figures were obtained when this median rate of increase was estimated for the first half of the period (1989-98) and for the second half (1999-2008) . However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half of the period for eight of the 17 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; four registers showing significantly higher rates of increase in the first half and four significantly higher rates in the second half.
Conclusion: The childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rate continues to rise across Europe by approximately 4% per annum, but the increase within a register is not necessarily uniform with periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence occurring in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions are warranted.

EURODIAB childhood type 1 diabetes incidence registers - results from the first 20 years

Background and aims: In 1989 a number of registers in Europe began recording new cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged under 15 years using a common protocol. Trends in incidence rate during the 20 year period 1989-2008 are described.
Materials and methods: All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. When possible, completeness of registration in each register is assessed using capture-recapture methodology by identifying primary and secondary sources of ascertainment. The completeness estimate is obtained by identifying the numbers of cases identified by the primary source only, by the secondary source only and by both the primary and the secondary sources.
Results: Other registers have joined the Group since 1989, and 21 registers in 15 countries continue to submit registration data. In the first five years (1989-93) incidence rates varied from 3.2 per 100,000 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to 25.8 per 100,000 in the Stockholm area of Sweden. In the last five years (2004-2008) these same two registers again had the lowest and highest incidence, but rates had increased to 5.8 per 100,000 and 36.6 per 100,000, respectively. During the 20 year period all but two of the 21 registers showed statistically significant rates of increase (median rate of increase 4% per annum), and similar figures were obtained when this median rate of increase was estimated for the first half of the period (1989-98) and for the second half (1999-2008) . However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half of the period for eight of the 17 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; four registers showing significantly higher rates of increase in the first half and four significantly higher rates in the second half.
Conclusion: The childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rate continues to rise across Europe by approximately 4% per annum, but the increase within a register is not necessarily uniform with periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence occurring in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions are warranted.

Restraing Regulatory Capture? Anglo America, Crisis Politics and Trajectories of Change in Global Financial Governance

A growing number of respected commentators now argue that regulatory capture of public agencies and public policy by leading banks was one of the main causal factors behind the financial crisis of 2007–2009, resulting in a permissive regulatory environment. This regulatory environment placed a faith in banks own internal risk models, contributed to pro-cyclical behaviour and turned a blind eye to excessive risk taking. The article argues that a form of ‘multi-level regulatory capture’ characterized the global financial architecture prior to the crisis. Simultaneously, regulatory capture fed off, but also nourished the financial boom, in a fashion that mirrored the life cycle of the boom itself. Minimizing future financial booms and crises will require continuous, conscious and explicit efforts to restrain financial regulatory capture now and into the future. The article assesses the extent to which this has been achieved in current global financial governance reform efforts and highlights some of the persistent difficulties that will continue to hamper efforts to restrain regulatory capture. The evidence concerning the extent to which regulatory capture is being effectively restrained is somewhat mixed, and where it is happening it is largely unintentional and accidental. Recent reforms have overlooked the political causes of the crisis and have failed to focus explicitly or systematically on regulatory capture.

Signatures of delayed detonation, asymmetry, and electron capture in the mid-infrared spectra of supernovae 2003hv and 2005df

We present mid-infrared (5.2-15.2 mu m) spectra of the Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) 2003hv and 2005df observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope. These are the first observed mid-infrared spectra of thermonuclear supernovae, and show strong emission from fine-structure lines of Ni, Co, S, and Ar. The detection of Ni emission in SN 2005df 135 days after the explosion provides direct observational evidence of high-density nuclear burning forming a significant amount of stable Ni in a SN Ia. The SN 2005df Ar lines also exhibit a two-pronged emission profile, implying that the Ar emission deviates significantly from spherical symmetry. The spectrum of SN 2003hv also shows signs of asymmetry, exhibiting blueshifted [Co (III)], which matches the blueshift of [Fe (II)] lines in nearly coeval near-infrared spectra. Finally, local thermodynamic equilibrium abundance estimates for the yield of radioactive Ni-56 give M-56Ni approximate to 0.5 M-circle dot, for SN 2003hv, but only M-56Ni approximate to 0.13-0.22 M-circle dot for the apparently subluminous SN 2005df, supporting the notion that the luminosity of SNe Ia is primarily a function of the radioactive 56Ni yield. The observed emission-line profiles in the SN 2005df spectrum indicate a chemically stratified ejecta structure, which matches the predictions of delayed detonation (DD) models, but is entirely incompatible with current three-dimensional deflagration models. Furthermore, the degree that this layering persists to the innermost regions of the supernova is difficult to explain even in a DD scenario, where the innermost ejecta are still the product of deflagration burning. Thus, while these results are roughly consistent with a delayed detonation, it is clear that a key piece of physics is still missing from our understanding of the earliest phases of SN Ia explosions.

Review of constitutive models for describing the time dependent behaviour of soft clays

Different classes of constitutive models have been proposed to capture the time-dependent behaviour of soft soil (creep, stress relaxation, rate dependency). This paper critically reviews many of the models developed based on understanding of the time dependent stress-strain-stress rate-strain rate behaviour of soils and viscoplasticity in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. Some discussion is also made on the numerical implementation aspects of these models. Typical findings from numerical analyses of geotechnical structures constructed on soft soils are also discussed. The general elastic viscoplastic (EVP) models can roughly be divided into two categories: models based on the concept of overstress and models based on non-stationary flow surface theory. Although general in structure, both categories have their own strengths and shortcomings. This review indicates that EVP analysis is yet to be vastly used by the geotechnical engineers, apparently due to the mathematical complication involved in the formulation of the constitutive models, unconvincing benefit in terms of the accuracy of performance prediction, requirement of additional soil parameter(s), difficulties in determining them, and the necessity of excessive computing resources and time. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

Weaving behavior into feature models for embedded system families

Product Line software Engineering depends on capturing the commonality and variability within a family of products, typically using feature modeling, and using this information to evolve a generic reference architecture for the family. For embedded systems, possible variability in hardware and operating system platforms is an added complication. The design process can be facilitated by first exploring the behavior associated with features. In this paper we outline a bidirectional feature modeling scheme that supports the capture of commonality and variability in the platform environment as well as within the required software. Additionally, 'behavior' associated with features can be included in the overall model. This is achieved by integrating the UCM path notation in a way that exploits UCM's static and dynamic stubs to capture behavioral variability and link it to the feature model structure. The resulting model is a richer source of information to support the architecture development process.

Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Models of Mortality - Analysing the Residuals

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 20 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, professionals, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be able to fund their old age. In particular, to quantify the costs of increasing longevity we need suitable model of mortality rates that capture the dynamics of the data and forecast them with sufficient accuracy to make them useful. In this paper we test several of those models by considering the fitting quality and in particular, testing the residuals of those models for normality properties. In a wide ranging study considering 30 countries we find that almost exclusively the residuals do not demonstrate normality. Further, in Hurst tests of the residuals we find evidence that structure remains that is not captured by the models.

Automatic extraction of Reduced order models from CFD simulations for building energy modeling

Thermal comfort is defined as “that condition of mind which expresses satisfaction with the thermal environment’ [1] [2]. Field studies have been completed in order to establish the governing conditions for thermal comfort [3]. These studies showed that the internal climate of a room was the strongest factor in establishing thermal comfort. Direct manipulation of the internal climate is necessary to retain an acceptable level of thermal comfort. In order for Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) strategies to be efficiently utilised it is necessary to have the ability to predict the effect that activating a heating/cooling source (radiators, windows and doors) will have on the room. The numerical modelling of the domain can be challenging due to necessity to capture temperature stratification and/or different heat sources (radiators, computers and human beings). Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) models are usually utilised for this function because they provide the level of details required. Although they provide the necessary level of accuracy these models tend to be highly computationally expensive especially when transient behaviour needs to be analysed. Consequently they cannot be integrated in BEMS. This paper presents and describes validation of a CFD-ROM method for real-time simulations of building thermal performance. The CFD-ROM method involves the automatic extraction and solution of reduced order models (ROMs) from validated CFD simulations. The test case used in this work is a room of the Environmental Research Institute (ERI) Building at the University College Cork (UCC). ROMs have shown that they are sufficiently accurate with a total error of less than 1% and successfully retain a satisfactory representation of the phenomena modelled. The number of zones in a ROM defines the size and complexity of that ROM. It has been observed that ROMs with a higher number of zones produce more accurate results. As each ROM has a time to solution of less than 20 seconds they can be integrated into the BEMS of a building which opens the potential to real time physics based building energy modelling.