An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

What price harmony? Teachers' methods of delivering an ethos of tolerance and respect for diversity in an integrated school in Northern Ireland

The aim of the paper is to explore teachers’ methods of delivering an ethos of tolerance, respect
and mutual understanding in one integrated secondary school in Northern Ireland. Drawing on
interviews with teachers in the school, it is argued that most teachers make ‘critical choices’
which both reflect and reinforce a ‘culture of avoidance’, whereby politically or religiously contentious
issues are avoided rather than explored. Although teachers are well-intentioned in making
these choices, it is shown that they have the potential to create the conditions that maintain or even
harden psychological boundaries between Catholics and Protestants rather than dilute them.

Science for sale in a free market economy: But at what price? ABA and the treatment of autism in Europe.

Educating the public accurately about Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) is an important undertaking, not least because misconceptions and myths about ABA abound. In this paper we argue that, unfortunately, the efforts of many dedicated professionals and parents to disseminate accurate information about the benefits of ABA for children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are damaged by a few behavior analysts whose focus seems to be more on monetary gains than social responsibility. We cite examples of the resulting harm to the public image of behavior analysis from a number of European countries. We conclude by calling upon fellow scientists to unite in their opposition to unscrupulous abuses of free market forces for short-term monetary gains that damage the dissemination of the science of behavior analysis and thereby ultimately disadvantage those who should benefit primarily from our science, i.e., some of the most vulnerable citizens of society.

Putting a Price on Prisoner Release: The History of Bail and the Future of Parole

In this article, we argue that the history of bail foretells the future of parole. Under a plancalled the Conditional Post-Conviction Release Bond Act (recently passed into law inthree states), US prisoners can secure early release only after posting ‘post-convictionbail’. As with pre-trial bail, the fledgling model would require prisoners to pay a percent-age of the bail amount to secure their release under the contractual responsibility of acommercial bail agency. If release conditions are breached, bounty hunters are legallyempowered to seize and return the parolee to prison. Our inquiry outlines the origins of this post-conviction bond plan and the research upon which it is based. Drawing on the‘new penology’ framework, we identify several underlying factors that make for a ripeadvocacy environment and set the stage for widespread state-level adoption of this planin the near future. Post-conviction bail fits squarely within the growing policy trendstoward privatization, managerialism, and actuarial justice. Most importantly, though,advocates have the benefit of precedent on their side, as most US states have longrelied on a system of commercial bail bonding and private bounty hunting to manageconditional pretrial release.

Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured.