Constraining the age of Lateglacial and early Holocene pollen zones and tephra horizons in southern Sweden with Bayesian probability methods

The sediment sequence from Hasseldala port in southeastern Sweden provides a unique Lateglacial/early Holocene record that contains five different tephra layers. Three of these have been geochemically identified as the Borrobol Tephra, the Hasseldalen Tephra and the 10-ka Askja Tephra. Twenty-eight high-resolution C-14 measurements have been obtained and three different age models based on Bayesian statistics are employed to provide age estimates for the five different tephra layers. The chrono- and pollen stratigraphic framework supports the stratigraphic position of the Borrobol Tephra as found in Sweden at the very end of the Older Dryas pollen zone and provides the first age estimates for the Askja and Hasseldalen tephras. Our results, however, highlight the limitations that arise in attempting to establish a robust, chronologically independent lacustrine sequence that can be correlated in great detail to ice core or marine records. Radiocarbon samples are prone to error and sedimentation rates in lake basins may vary considerably due to a number of factors. Any type of valid and 'realistic' age model, therefore, has to take these limitations into account and needs to include this information in its prior assumptions. As a result, the age ranges for the specific horizons at Hasseldala port are large and calendar year estimates differ according to the assumptions of the age-model. Not only do these results provide a cautionary note for overdependence on one age-model for the derivation of age estimates for specific horizons, but they also demonstrate that precise correlations to other palaeoarchives to detect leads or lags is problematic. Given the uncertainties associated with establishing age-depth models for sedimentary sequences spanning the Lateglacial period, however, this exercise employing Bayesian probability methods represents the best possible approach and provides the most statistically significant age estimates for the pollen zone boundaries and tephra horizons. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factors influencing eating a varied diet in old age

OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the influences of resources and food-related goals on the variety of food choice among older people.
DESIGN:
A questionnaire-based survey in eight European countries: Poland, Portugal, United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Italy and Spain.
SUBJECTS:
Participants (n 3200) were above 65 years of age and living in their own homes. The samples were quota samples, eight groups of fifty in each country, based on gender, age and living circumstances, reflecting the diversity of each of the national populations based on education, income and urbanization of living environment.
RESULTS:
Hierarchical multiple regression analysis showed that income, health status, access to a car and living arrangement affected the level of dietary variety. The perceived level of different food-related resources impacted the consumption of a varied diet over and above actual resource levels. Food-related goals contributed to variety of food intake that was not accounted for by the amount of material resources possessed or the social and other resources perceived to be possessed.
CONCLUSIONS:
Older people's variety of food intake depended on material resources (e.g. monthly income, access to a car, living arrangement, physical and mental health). However, in addition to these variables, the way older people perceived other resources, such as their level of appetite, their food knowledge, their perception of the distance to the shops, access to high-quality products, having better kitchen facilities, access to good service providers and support from friends and neighbours, all contributed to how varied a diet they ate.

Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes in Sweden Among Individuals Aged 0–34 Years, 1983–2007:An analysis of time trends

OBJECTIVE: To clarify whether the increase in childhood type 1 diabetes is mirrored by a decrease in older age-groups, resulting in younger age at diagnosis.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from two prospective research registers, the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register, which included case subjects aged 0-14.9 years at diagnosis, and the Diabetes in Sweden Study, which included case subjects aged 15-34.9 years at diagnosis, covering birth cohorts between 1948 and 2007. The total database included 20,249 individuals with diabetes diagnosed between 1983 and 2007. Incidence rates over time were analyzed using Poisson regression models.
RESULTS: The overall yearly incidence rose to a peak of 42.3 per 100,000 person-years in male subjects aged 10-14 years and to a peak of 37.1 per 100,000 person-years in female subjects aged 5-9 years and decreased thereafter. There was a significant increase by calendar year in both sexes in the three age-groups <15 years; however, there were significant decreases in the older age-groups (25- to 29-years and 30- to 34-years age-groups). Poisson regression analyses showed that a cohort effect seemed to dominate over a time-period effect.
CONCLUSIONS: Twenty-five years of prospective nationwide incidence registration demonstrates a clear shift to younger age at onset rather than a uniform increase in incidence rates across all age-groups. The dominance of cohort effects over period effects suggests that exposures affecting young children may be responsible for the increasing incidence in the younger age-groups.

Differences in cancer awareness and beliefs between Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK (the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership):Do they contribute to differences in cancer survival?

Background:There are wide international differences in 1-year cancer survival. The UK and Denmark perform poorly compared with other high-income countries with similar health care systems: Australia, Canada and Sweden have good cancer survival rates, Norway intermediate survival rates. The objective of this study was to examine the pattern of differences in cancer awareness and beliefs across these countries to identify where these might contribute to the pattern of survival.Methods:We carried out a population-based telephone interview survey of 19 079 men and women aged =50 years in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure.Results:Awareness that the risk of cancer increased with age was lower in the UK (14%), Canada (13%) and Australia (16%) but was higher in Denmark (25%), Norway (29%) and Sweden (38%). Symptom awareness was no lower in the UK and Denmark than other countries. Perceived barriers to symptomatic presentation were highest in the UK, in particular being worried about wasting the doctor's time (UK 34%; Canada 21%; Australia 14%; Denmark 12%; Norway 11%; Sweden 9%).Conclusion:The UK had low awareness of age-related risk and the highest perceived barriers to symptomatic presentation, but symptom awareness in the UK did not differ from other countries. Denmark had higher awareness of age-related risk and few perceived barriers to symptomatic presentation. This suggests that other factors must be involved in explaining Denmark's poor survival rates. In the UK, interventions that address barriers to prompt presentation in primary care should be developed and evaluated. © 2013 Cancer Research UK. All rights reserved.

Breast cancer survival and stage at diagnosis in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK, 2000-2007:A population-based study

Background: We investigate whether differences in breast cancer survival in six high-income countries can be explained by differences in stage at diagnosis using routine data from population-based cancer registries. Methods: We analysed the data on 257 362 women diagnosed with breast cancer during 2000-7 and registered in 13 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Flexible parametric hazard models were used to estimate net survival and the excess hazard of dying from breast cancer up to 3 years after diagnosis.Results:Age-standardised 3-year net survival was 87-89% in the UK and Denmark, and 91-94% in the other four countries. Stage at diagnosis was relatively advanced in Denmark: only 30% of women had Tumour, Nodes, Metastasis (TNM) stage I disease, compared with 42-45% elsewhere. Women in the UK had low survival for TNM stage III-IV disease compared with other countries. Conclusion: International differences in breast cancer survival are partly explained by differences in stage at diagnosis, and partly by differences in stage-specific survival. Low overall survival arises if the stage distribution is adverse (e.g. Denmark) but stage-specific survival is normal; or if the stage distribution is typical but stage-specific survival is low (e.g. UK). International differences in staging diagnostics and stage-specific cancer therapies should be investigated. © 2013 Cancer Research UK. All rights reserved.

Lung cancer survival and stage at diagnosis in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK:A population-based study, 2004-2007

Background: The authors consider whether differences in stage at diagnosis could explain the variation in lung cancer survival between six developed countries in 2004-2007. Methods: Routinely collected population-based data were obtained on all adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with lung cancer in 2004-2007 and registered in regional and national cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Stage data for 57 352 patients were consolidated from various classification systems. Flexible parametric hazard models on the log cumulative scale were used to estimate net survival at 1 year and the excess hazard up to 18 months after diagnosis. Results: Age-standardised 1-year net survival from non-small cell lung cancer ranged from 30% (UK) to 46% (Sweden). Patients in the UK and Denmark had lower survival than elsewhere, partly because of a more adverse stage distribution. However, there were also wide international differences in stage-specific survival. Net survival from TNM stage I non-small cell lung cancer was 16% lower in the UK than in Sweden, and for TNM stage IV disease survival was 10% lower. Similar patterns were found for small cell lung cancer. Conclusions: There are comparability issues when using population-based data but, even given these constraints, this study shows that, while differences in stage at diagnosis explain some of the international variation in overall lung cancer survival, wide disparities in stage-specific survival exist, suggesting that other factors are also important such as differences in treatment. Stage should be included in international cancer survival studies and the comparability of population-based data should be improved.

Awareness of sunburn in childhood, use of sunbeds and change of moles in Denmark, Northern Ireland, Norway and Sweden

Background: Malignant melanoma (MM) is increasing rapidly in Northern Europe. To reduce incidence and mortality through earlier diagnosis, public awareness of MM is important. Thus, we aim to examine awareness of risk factors and a symptom of MM, and how awareness varies by country and socio-demographic factors in Denmark, Northern Ireland (NI), Norway and Sweden.

Methods: Population-based telephone interviews using the ‘Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer’ measure were conducted in 2011 among 8355 adults ≥50 years as part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership Module 2. Prevalence ratios (PRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated.

Results: In these four countries, lowest awareness was found for ‘sunburn in childhood’ (63%), whereas awareness was high for ‘use of sunbeds’ (91%) and ‘mole change’ (97%). Lack of awareness of ‘sunburn in childhood’ was more prevalent among respondents from Norway [PR = 1.38 (1.28–1.48)] but less prevalent among respondents from Northern Ireland (NI) [PR = 0.78 (0.72–0.85)] and Sweden [PR = 0.86 (0.79–0.93)] compared with respondents from Denmark. Lack of awareness of ‘use of sunbeds’ was more prevalent among respondents from Norway [PR = 2.99 (2.39–3.74)], Sweden [PR = 1.57 (1.22–2.00)], and NI [PR = 1.65 (1.30–2.10)] compared with respondents form Denmark. Being a man, age ≥70, living alone, and having lower education, were each independently associated with lack of MM-awareness.

Conclusions: The results indicate relatively low awareness of ‘sunburn in childhood’ as a risk factor for MM, and important disparities in MM-awareness across countries and socio-demographic groups. Improved and more directed initiatives to enhance public MM-awareness, particularly about ‘sunburn in childhood’, are needed.

The association between spastic Cerebral Palsy, intellectual impairment, and gestational age: results from the Northern Ireland Cerebral Palsy Register

Background
Studies suggest a complex relationship between Cerebral Palsy sub-types, severity of impairment, and risk factors such as gestational age. To investigate these relationships, we conducted analyses on over 1,100 children included in the Northern Ireland Cerebral Palsy Register (NICPR) whose clinical CP subtype was Bilateral Spastic or Spastic Hemiplegia, and for whom information was available on the relevant variables.
Methods
We tested for the association between Bilateral and Hemiplegia subtypes, severe intellectual impairment, and gestational age (term; moderately preterm; very or extremely preterm) while controlling for gender, socio-economic deprivation, year of birth, and birth weight (using a standardized birth-weight score based on deviance from the birth weight average within each gestational age band). Severity of intellectual impairment was dichotomised (severe intellectual delay vs. moderate or no delay).
Results
Logistic regressions indicated a good fit of the model, and the predictors included explained approximately 19% of variability in the outcome. The results indicated a strong association between the Bilateral subtype and severe intellectual impairment: compared to children with the Hemiplegia subtype, those with Bilateral Spastic CP displayed a 10-fold increase in the odds of severe intellectual impairment. The results revealed a significant interaction between CP subtype and gestational age: for the Bilateral CP subtype, being born at term was associated with increased probability of severe intellectual impairment.
Discussion
Results are consistent with other studies (Hemming et al., 2008) in indicating that the likelihood of cognitive impairments increases with increasing gestational age at delivery of Bilateral Spastic CP children. The results are discussed in light of hypotheses that suggest the brain might be able to reorganise and compensate the effects of lesions and injuries when it is still less developed.