Disparities in breast cancer mortality trends between 30 European countries: Retrospective trend analysis of WHO mortality database

Objective: To examine changes in temporal trends in breast cancer mortality in women living in 30 European countries.
Design: Retrospective trend analysis.
Data source: WHO mortality database on causes of deaths
Subjects reviewed: Female deaths from breast cancer from 1989 to 2006
Main outcome measures: Changes in breast cancer mortality for all women and by age group (<50, 50-69, and >= 70 years) calculated from linear regressions of log transformed, age adjusted death rates. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the year when trends in all age mortality began to change.
Results: From 1989 to 2006, there was a median reduction in breast cancer mortality of 19%, ranging from a 45% reduction in Iceland to a 17% increase in Romania. Breast cancer mortality decreased by >= 20% in 15 countries, and the reduction tended to be greater in countries with higher mortality in 1987-9. England and Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland had the second, third, and fourth largest decreases of 35%, 29%, and 30%, respectively. In France, Finland, and Sweden, mortality decreased by 11%, 12%, and 16%, respectively. In central European countries mortality did not decline or even increased during the period. Downward mortality trends usually started between 1988 and 1996, and the persistent reduction from 1999 to 2006 indicates that these trends may continue. The median changes in the age groups were -37% (range -76% to -14%) in women aged <50, -21% (-40% to 14%) in 50-69 year olds, and -2% (-42% to 80%) in >= 70 year olds.
Conclusions: Changes in breast cancer mortality after 1988 varied widely between European countries, and the UK is among the countries with the largest reductions. Women aged <50 years showed the greatest reductions in mortality, also in countries where screening at that age is uncommon. The increasing mortality in some central European countries reflects avoidable mortality.

Breast cancer mortality in neighbouring European countries with different level of breast screening but similar access to treatment: An analysis of WHO mortality database

Objective: To compare trends in breast cancer mortality within three pairs of neighbouring European countries in relation to implementation of screening. Design: Retrospective trend analysis.
Setting: Three country pairs (Northern Ireland (United Kingdom) v Republic of Ireland, the Netherlands v Belgium and Flanders (Belgian region south of the Netherlands), and Sweden v Norway).
Data sources: WHO mortality database on cause of death and data sources on mammography screening, cancer treatment, and risk factors for breast cancer mortality.
Main outcome measures: Changes in breast cancer mortality calculated from linear regressions of log transformed, age adjusted death rates. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the year when trends in mortality for all ages began to change.
Results: From 1989 to 2006, deaths from breast cancer decreased by 29% in Northern Ireland and by 26% in the Republic of Ireland; by 25% in the Netherlands and by 20% in Belgium and 25% in Flanders; and by 16% in Sweden and by 24% in Norway. The time trend and year of downward inflexion were similar between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and between the Netherlands and Flanders. In Sweden, mortality rates have steadily decreased since 1972, with no downward inflexion until 2006. Countries of each pair had similar healthcare services and prevalence of risk factors for breast cancer mortality but differing implementation of mammography screening, with a gap of about 10-15 years.
Conclusions: The contrast between the time differences in implementation of mammography screening and the similarity in reductions in mortality between the country pairs suggest that screening did not play a direct part in the reductions in breast cancer mortality.

Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989-2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:

The aim of the study was to describe 20-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in 23 EURODIAB centres and compare rates of increase in the first (1989-1998) and second (1999-2008) halves of the period.

METHODS:

All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. Completeness of registration is assessed by capture-recapture methodology. Twenty-three centres in 19 countries registered 49,969 new cases of type 1 diabetes in individuals diagnosed before their 15th birthday during the period studied.

RESULTS:

Ascertainment exceeded 90% in most registers. During the 20-year period, all but one register showed statistically significant changes in incidence, with rates universally increasing. When estimated separately for the first and second halves of the period, the median rates of increase were similar: 3.4% per annum and 3.3% per annum, respectively. However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half for nine of the 21 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; five registers showed significantly higher rates of increase in the first half, and four significantly higher rates in the second half.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:

The incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes continues to rise across Europe by an average of approximately 3-4% per annum, but the increase is not necessarily uniform, showing periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions is warranted.

EURODIAB childhood type 1 diabetes incidence registers - results from the first 20 years. Oral presentation at the 47th EASD Annual Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal.

Background and aims: In 1989 a number of registers in Europe began recording new cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged under 15 years using a common protocol. Trends in incidence rate during the 20 year period 1989-2008 are described.
Materials and methods: All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. When possible, completeness of registration in each register is assessed using capture-recapture methodology by identifying primary and secondary sources of ascertainment. The completeness estimate is obtained by identifying the numbers of cases identified by the primary source only, by the secondary source only and by both the primary and the secondary sources.
Results: Other registers have joined the Group since 1989, and 21 registers in 15 countries continue to submit registration data. In the first five years (1989-93) incidence rates varied from 3.2 per 100,000 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to 25.8 per 100,000 in the Stockholm area of Sweden. In the last five years (2004-2008) these same two registers again had the lowest and highest incidence, but rates had increased to 5.8 per 100,000 and 36.6 per 100,000, respectively. During the 20 year period all but two of the 21 registers showed statistically significant rates of increase (median rate of increase 4% per annum), and similar figures were obtained when this median rate of increase was estimated for the first half of the period (1989-98) and for the second half (1999-2008) . However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half of the period for eight of the 17 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; four registers showing significantly higher rates of increase in the first half and four significantly higher rates in the second half.
Conclusion: The childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rate continues to rise across Europe by approximately 4% per annum, but the increase within a register is not necessarily uniform with periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence occurring in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions are warranted.

EURODIAB childhood type 1 diabetes incidence registers - results from the first 20 years

Background and aims: In 1989 a number of registers in Europe began recording new cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged under 15 years using a common protocol. Trends in incidence rate during the 20 year period 1989-2008 are described.
Materials and methods: All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. When possible, completeness of registration in each register is assessed using capture-recapture methodology by identifying primary and secondary sources of ascertainment. The completeness estimate is obtained by identifying the numbers of cases identified by the primary source only, by the secondary source only and by both the primary and the secondary sources.
Results: Other registers have joined the Group since 1989, and 21 registers in 15 countries continue to submit registration data. In the first five years (1989-93) incidence rates varied from 3.2 per 100,000 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to 25.8 per 100,000 in the Stockholm area of Sweden. In the last five years (2004-2008) these same two registers again had the lowest and highest incidence, but rates had increased to 5.8 per 100,000 and 36.6 per 100,000, respectively. During the 20 year period all but two of the 21 registers showed statistically significant rates of increase (median rate of increase 4% per annum), and similar figures were obtained when this median rate of increase was estimated for the first half of the period (1989-98) and for the second half (1999-2008) . However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half of the period for eight of the 17 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; four registers showing significantly higher rates of increase in the first half and four significantly higher rates in the second half.
Conclusion: The childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rate continues to rise across Europe by approximately 4% per annum, but the increase within a register is not necessarily uniform with periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence occurring in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions are warranted.

Facilities management: Tracing its development trajectory

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide facilities management (FM) practitioners and researchers with a better understanding of the FM industry sector by analyzing the trend of its development.
Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interview is adopted in this research as the main methodology. In total, 30 FM professionals in the UK were interviewed to explore the past, present and future of FM. The analysis of interview results helps to identify the key areas in which FM has changed, is changing and will change. It also helps to explain the implications of FM development in each key area.
Findings – FM evolves and matures continuously. It is important for FM organizations and practitioners to recognize the dynamic nature of this industry sector, based on which they can develop appropriate strategies to adapt to changing circumstances. This is probably the only way for them to
keep pace with the times.
Originality/value – Both backward looking and forward looking are crucial to the development of an industry sector. However, existing studies on FM development are conducted through either review or outlook. On the other hand, most of these studies focus on one particular management area or one particular industry sector. Based on 30 expert interviews, this research attempts to bridge the knowledge gap and analyze the trend of FM development in a systematic way. A better understanding of the trend provides a possibility and a guide for FM organizations and practitioners to pursue best practice.

The Effect of Community-Based Specialist Palliative Care Teams on Place of Care

BACKGROUND: Prior research on community-based specialist palliative care teams used outcome measures of place of death and/or dichotomous outcome measures of acute care use in the last two weeks of life. However, existing research seldom measured the diverse places of care used and their timing prior to death.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to examine the place of care in the last 30 days of life.

METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, patients who received care from a specialist palliative care team (exposed) were matched by propensity score to patients who received usual care in the community (unexposed) in Ontario, Canada. Measured was the percentage of patients in each place of care in the last month of life as a proportion of the total cohort.

RESULTS: After matching, 3109 patients were identified in each group, where 79% had cancer and 77% received end-of-life home care. At 30 days compared to 7 days before death, the exposed group's proportions rose from 33% to 41% receiving home care and 14% to 15% in hospital, whereas the unexposed group's proportions rose from 28% to 32% receiving home care and 16% to 22% in hospital. Linear trend analysis (proportion over time) showed that the exposed group used significantly more home care services and fewer hospital days (p < 0.001) than the unexposed group. On the last day of life (place of death), the exposed group had 18% die in an in-patient hospital bed compared to 29% in usual care.

CONCLUSION: Examining place of care in the last month can effectively illustrate the service use trajectory over time.

Detection of visual-field deterioration by Glaucoma Progression Analysis and Threshold Noiseless Trend programs

BACKGROUND: To compare the ability of Glaucoma Progression Analysis (GPA) and Threshold Noiseless Trend (TNT) programs to detect visual-field deterioration.

METHODS: Patients with open-angle glaucoma followed for a minimum of 2 years and a minimum of seven reliable visual fields were included. Progression was assessed subjectively by four masked glaucoma experts, and compared with GPA and TNT results. Each case was judged to be stable, deteriorated or suspicious of deterioration

RESULTS: A total of 56 eyes of 42 patients were followed with a mean of 7.8 (SD 1.0) tests over an average of 5.5 (1.04) years. Interobserver agreement to detect progression was good (mean kappa = 0.57). Progression was detected in 10-19 eyes by the experts, in six by GPA and in 24 by TNT. Using the consensus expert opinion as the gold standard (four clinicians detected progression), the GPA sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 83%, respectively, while the TNT sensitivity and specificity was 100% and 77%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: TNT showed greater concordance with the experts than GPA in the detection of visual-field deterioration. GPA showed a high specificity but lower sensitivity, mainly detecting cases of high focality and pronounced mean defect slopes.

Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

The energetics of tetrahydrocarbazole aromatization over Pd(111): A computational analysis

The carbazole moiety is a component of many important pharmaceuticals including anticancer and anti-HIV agents and is commonly utilized in the production of modern polymeric materials with novel photophysical and electronic properties. Simple carbazoles are generally produced via the aromatization of the respective tetrahydrocarbazole (THCZ). In this work, density functional theory calculations are used to model the reaction pathway of tetrahydrocarbazole aromatization over Pd(111). The geometry of each of the intermediate surface species has been determined and how each structure interacts with the metal surface addressed. The reaction energies and barriers of each of the elementary surface reactions have also been calculated, and a detailed analysis of the energetic trends performed. Our calculations have shown that the surface intermediates remain fixed to the surface via the aromatic ring in a manner similar to that of THCZ. Moreover, the aliphatic ring becomes progressively more planer with the dissociation of each subsequent hydrogen atom. Analysis of the reaction energy profile has revealed that the trend in reaction barriers is determined by the two factors: (i) the strength of the dissociating ring-H bond and (ii) the subsequent gain in energy due to the geometric relaxation of the aliphatic ring. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Reactivity of the 4d transition metals toward N hydrogenation and NH dissociation: A DFT-based HSAB analysis

The density functional theory (DFT) based hard-soft acid-base (HSAB) reactivity indices, including the electrophilicity index, have been successfully applied to many areas of molecular chemistry. In this work we test the applicability of such an approach to fundamental surface chemistry. We have considered, as prototypical surface reactions, both the hydrogenation of atomic nitrogen and the dissociative adsorption of the NH molecular radical. By use of a DFT methodology, the minimum energy reaction pathways, and corresponding reaction barriers, of the above reactions over Zr(001), Nb(110), Mo(110), Tc(001), Ru(001), Rh(111), and Pd(111) have been determined. By consideration of the chemical potential and chemical hardness of the surface metal atoms, and the principle of electronegativity equalization, it is found that the charge transferred to the NH radical during the process of dissociative adsorption correlates very well with that determined by Mulliken population analysis. Furthermore, it is found that the stability of the NH/surface transition state complex relates directly to this charge transfer and that the trend in transition state stability predicted by a HSAB; treatment correlates very strongly with that determined by DFT calculations. With regards to N hydrogenation, we find that during the course of the reaction, H loses cohesion to the surface, as it must migrate from a 3-fold hollow site to either a bridge or top site, to react with N. Partial density of states (PDOS) and Mulliken population analysis reveal that this loss of bonding is accompanied by charge transfer from H to the surface metal atoms. Moreover, by simple modeling, we show that the reaction barriers are directly proportional to this mandatory charge transfer. Indeed, it is found that the reaction barriers correlate very well with the electrophilicity index of the metal atoms.

Spatial Allocation of Material Flow Analysis: A Geographic Information System Application of Material Flow Analysis in Ireland

This study concerns the spatial allocation of material flows, with emphasis on construction material in the Irish housing sector. It addresses some of the key issues concerning anthropogenic impact on the environment through spatial temporal visualisation of the flow of materials, wastes and emissions at different spatial levels. This is presented in the form of a spatial model, Spatial Allocation of Material Flow Analysis (SAMFA), which enables the simulation of construction material flows and associated energy use. SAMFA parallels the Island Limits project (EPA funded under 2004-SD-MS-22-M2), which aimed to create a material flow analysis of the Irish economy classified by industrial sector. SAMFA further develops this by attempting to establish the material flows at the subnational geographical scale that could be used in the development of local authority (LA) sustainability strategies and spatial planning frameworks by highlighting the cumulative environmental impacts of the development of the built environment. By drawing on the idea of planning support systems, SAMFA also aims to provide a cross-disciplinary, integrative medium for involving stakeholders in strategies for a sustainable built environment and, as such, would help illustrate the sustainability consequences of alternative The pilot run of the model in Kildare has shown that the model can be successfully calibrated and applied to develop alternative material flows and energy-use scenarios at the ED level. This has been demonstrated through the development of an integrated and a business-as-usual scenario, with the former integrating a range of potential material efficiency and energysaving policy options and the latter replicating conditions that best describe the current trend. Their comparison shows that the former is better than the latter in terms of both material and energy use. This report also identifies a number of potential areas of future research and areas of broader application. This includes improving the accuracy of the SAMFA model (e.g. by establishing actual life expectancy of buildings in the Irish context through field surveys) and the extension of the model to other Irish counties. This would establish SAMFA as a valuable predicting and monitoring tool that is capable of integrating national and local spatial planning objectives with actual environmental impacts. Furthermore, should the model prove successful at this level, it then has the potential to transfer the modelling approach to other areas of the built environment, such as commercial development and other key contributors of greenhouse emissions. The ultimate aim is to develop a meta-model for predicting the consequences of consumption patterns at the local scale. This therefore offers the possibility of creating critical links between socio technical systems with the most important challenge of all the limitations of the biophysical environment.

Association Analysis of the PIP4K2A Gene on Chromosome 10p12 and Schizophrenia in the Irish Study of High Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF) and the Irish Case-Control Study of Schizophrenia (ICCSS)

Molecular studies support pharmacological evidence that phosphoinositide signaling is perturbed in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The phosphatidylinositol-4-phosphate-5-kinase type-II alpha (PIP4K2A) gene is located on chromosome 10p12. This region has been implicated in both diseases by linkage, and PIP4K2A directly by association. Given linkage evidence in the Irish Study of High Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF) to a region including 10p12, we performed an association study between genetic variants at PIP4K2A and disease. No association was detected through single-marker or haplotype analysis of the whole sample. However, stratification into families positive and negative for the ISHDSF schizophrenia high-risk haplotype (HRH) in the DTNBP1 gene and re-analysis for linkage showed reduced amplitude of the 10p12 linkage peak in the DTNBP1 HRH positive families. Association analysis of the stratified sample showed a trend toward association of PIP4K2A SNPs rs1417374 and rs1409395 with schizophrenia in the DTNBP1 HRH positive families. Despite this apparent paradox, our data may therefore suggest involvement of PIP4K2A in schizophrenia in those families for whom genetic variation in DTNBP1 appears also to be a risk factor. This trend appears to arise from under-transmission of common alleles to female cases. Follow-up association analysis in a large Irish schizophrenia case-control control sample (ICCSS) showed significant association with disease of a haplotype comprising these same SNPs rs1417374-rs1409395, again more so in affected females, and in cases with negative family history of the disease. This study supports a minor role for PIP4K2A in schizophrenia etiology in the Irish population. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Variations in Apolipoprotein E Frequency With Age in a Pooled Analysis of a Large Group of Older People

Variation in the apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) has been reported to be associated with longevity in humans. The authors assessed the allelic distribution of APOE isoforms e2, e3, and e4 among 10,623 participants from 15 case-control and cohort studies of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in populations of European ancestry (study dates ranged from 1990 to 2009). The authors included only the 10,623 control subjects from these studies who were classified as having no evidence of AMD, since variation within the APOE gene has previously been associated with AMD. In an analysis stratified by study center, gender, and smoking status, there was a decreasing frequency of the APOE e4 isoform with increasing age (?2 for trend = 14.9 (1 df); P = 0.0001), with a concomitant increase in the e3 isoform (?2 for trend = 11.3 (1 df); P = 0.001). The association with age was strongest in e4 homozygotes; the frequency of e4 homozygosity decreased from 2.7% for participants aged 60 years or less to 0.8% for those over age 85 years, while the proportion of participants with the e3/e4 genotype decreased from 26.8% to 17.5% across the same age range. Gender had no significant effect on the isoform frequencies. This study provides strong support for an association of the APOE gene with human longevity.

Blue luminous stars in nearby galaxies: Quantitative spectral analysis of M33 B-type supergiant stars

We present the detailed spectral analysis of a sample of M33 B-type supergiant stars, aimed at the determination of their fundamental parameters and chemical composition. The analysis is based on a grid of non-LTE metal line-blanketed model atmospheres including the effects of stellar winds and spherical extension computed with the code FASTWIND. Surface abundance ratios of C, N, and O are used to discuss the chemical evolutionary status of each individual star. The comparison of observed stellar properties with theoretical predictions of massive star evolutionary models shows good agreement within the uncertainties of the analysis. The spatial distribution of the sample allows us to investigate the existence of radial abundance gradients in the disk of M33. The comparison of stellar and H II region O abundances ( based on direct determinations of the electron temperature of the nebulae) shows good agreement. Using a simple linear radial representation, the stellar oxygen abundances result in a gradient of -0.0145 +/- 0.005 dex arcmin(-1) (or -0.06 +/- 0.02 dex kpc(-1)) up to a distance equal to similar to 1.1 times the isophotal radius of the galaxy. A more complex representation cannot be completely discarded by our stellar sample. The stellar Mg and Si abundances follow the trend displayed by O abundances, although with shallower gradients. These differences in gradient slope cannot be explained at this point. The derived abundances of the three alpha-elements yield solar metallicity in the central regions of the disk of M33. A comparison with recent planetary nebula data from Magrini and coworkers indicates that the disk of M33 has not suffered from a significant O enrichment in the last 3 Gyr.