Land-use patterns and cultural change in the Middle to Late Bronze Age in Ireland: inferences from pollen records

In Ireland, the Middle to Late Bronze Age (1500-600 cal. B.C.) is characterised by alternating phases of prolific metalwork production (the Bishopsland and Dowris Phases) and apparent recessions (the Roscommon Phase and the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age transition). In this paper, these changes in material culture are placed in a socio-economic context by examining contemporary settlement and land-use patterns interpreted from the pollen record. The vegetation histories of six tephrochronologically-linked sites are presented that provide high-resolution and chronologically well-resolved insights into changes in landscape use over the Middle to Late Bronze Age. The records are compared with published pollen records in an attempt to discern if there are any trends of woodland clearance and abandonment from which changes in settlement patterns can be inferred. The results suggest that prolific metalworking industries correlate chronologically with expansive farming activity, which indicates that they were supported by a productive subsistence economy. Conversely, declines in metalwork production occur during periods when farming activity is generally less extensive and perhaps more centralised, and it is proposed that disparate socio-economic or –political factors, rather than a collapse of the subsistence economy, lies behind the demise of metalworking industries.

Cue Competition Effects and Young Children's Causal and Counterfactual Inferences

The authors examined cue competition effects in young children using the blicket detector paradigm, in which objects are placed either singly or in pairs on a novel machine and children must judge which objects have the causal power to make the machine work. Cue competition effects were found in a 5- to 6-year-old group but not in a 4-year-old group. Equivalent levels of forward and backward blocking were found in the former group. Children's counterfactual judgments were subsequently examined by asking whether or not the machine would have gone off in the absence of I of 2 objects that had been placed on it as a pair. Cue competition effects were demonstrated only in 5- to 6-year-olds using this mode of assessing causal reasoning.

Temporal information and children's and adults' causal inferences

Three experiments examined whether children and adults would use temporal information as a cue to the causal structure of a three-variable system, and also whether their judgements about the effects of interventions on the system would be affected by the temporal properties of the event sequence. Participants were shown a system in which two events B and C occurred either simultaneously (synchronous condition) or in a temporal sequence (sequential condition) following an initial event A. The causal judgements of adults and 6-7-year-olds differed between the conditions, but this was not the case for 4-year-olds' judgements. However, unlike those of adults, 6-7-year-olds' intervention judgements were not affected by condition, and causal and intervention judgements were not reliably consistent in this age group. The findings support the claim that temporal information provides an important cue to causal structure, at least in older children. However, they raise important issues about the relationship between causal and intervention judgements.

When some is actually all: Scalar inferences in face-threatening contexts

Accounts of the scalar inference from 'some X-ed' to 'not all X-ed' are central to the debate between contemporary theories of conversational pragmatics. An important contribution to this debate is to identify contexts that decrease the endorsement rate of the inference. We suggest that the inference is endorsed less often in face-threatening contexts, i.e., when X implies a loss of face for the listener. This claim is successfully tested in Experiment 1. Experiment 2 rules out a possible confound between face-threatening contexts and lower-bound contexts. Experiment 3 shows that whilst saying 'some X-ed' when one knew for a fact that all X-ed is always perceived as an underinformative utterance, it is also seen as a nice and polite thing to do when X threatens the face of the listener. These findings are considered from the perspective of Relevance Theory as well as that of the Generalized Conversational Inference approach. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complexity of Inferences in Polytree-shaped Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the Bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that inferences can be performed in linear time if there is a single observed node, which is a relevant practical case. Because our proof is constructive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynomial-time algorithm for SQPNs. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Approximating Credal Network Inferences by Linear Programming

An algorithm for approximate credal network updating is presented. The problem in its general formulation is a multilinear optimization task, which can be linearized by an appropriate rule for fixing all the local models apart from those of a single variable. This simple idea can be iterated and quickly leads to very accurate inferences. The approach can also be specialized to classification with credal networks based on the maximality criterion. A complexity analysis for both the problem and the algorithm is reported together with numerical experiments, which confirm the good performance of the method. While the inner approximation produced by the algorithm gives rise to a classifier which might return a subset of the optimal class set, preliminary empirical results suggest that the accuracy of the optimal class set is seldom affected by the approximate probabilities

Chironomid-based reconstructions of summer air temperature from lake deposits in Lyndon Stream, New Zealand spanning the MIS 3/2 transition

We present chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from lake sediments deposited between ca 26,600 cal yr BP and 24,500 cal yr BP from Lyndon Stream, South Island, New Zealand. Summer (February mean) temperatures averaged 1 1C cooler, with a maximum inferred cooling of 3.7 1C. These estimates corroborate macrofossil and beetle-based temperature inferences from the same site and suggest climate amelioration (an interstadial) at this time. Other records from the New Zealand region also show a large degree of variability during the late Otiran glacial sequence (34,000–18,000 cal yr BP) including a phase of warming at the MIS 2/3 transition and a maximum cooling that did not occur until the global LGM (ca 20,000 cal yr BP). The very moderate cooling identified here at the MIS 2/3 transition confirms and enhances the long-standing discrepancy in New Zealand records between pollen and other proxies. Low abundances (o20%) of canopy tree pollen in records from late MIS 3 to the end of MIS 2 cannot be explained by the minor (o5 1C) cooling inferred from this and other studies unless other environmental parameters are considered. Further work is required to address this critical issue.

Monitoring treatment fidelity in a randomised controlled trial of a complex intervention.

Aim. This paper is a report of a study to describe how treatment fidelity is being enhanced and monitored, using a model from the National Institutes of Health Behavior Change Consortium. Background. The objective of treatment fidelity is to minimize errors in interpreting research trial outcomes, and to ascribe those outcomes directly to the intervention at hand. Treatment fidelity procedures are included in trials of complex interventions to account for inferences made from study outcomes. Monitoring treatment fidelity can help improve study design, maximize reliability of results, increase statistical power, determine whether theory-based interventions are responsible for observed changes, and inform the research dissemination process. Methods. Treatment fidelity recommendations from the Behavior Change Consortium were applied to the SPHERE study (Secondary Prevention of Heart DiseasE in GeneRal PracticE), a randomized controlled trial of a complex intervention. Procedures to enhance and monitor intervention implementation included standardizing training sessions, observing intervention consultations, structuring patient recall systems, and using written practice and patient care plans. The research nurse plays an important role in monitoring intervention implementation. Findings. Several methods of applying treatment fidelity procedures to monitoring interventions are possible. The procedure used may be determined by availability of appropriate personnel, fiscal constraints, or time limits. Complex interventions are not straightforward and necessitate a monitoring process at trial stage. Conclusion. The Behavior Change Consortium’s model of treatment fidelity is useful for structuring a system to monitor the implementation of a complex intervention, and helps to increase the reliability and validity of evaluation findings.

Constructing probabilistic ATMS using extended incidence calculus

This paper discusses the relations between extended incidence calculus and assumption-based truth maintenance systems (ATMSs). We first prove that managing labels for statements (nodes) in an ATMS is equivalent to producing incidence sets of these statements in extended incidence calculus. We then demonstrate that the justification set for a node is functionally equivalent to the implication relation set for the same node in extended incidence calculus. As a consequence, extended incidence calculus can provide justifications for an ATMS, because implication relation sets are discovered by the system automatically. We also show that extended incidence calculus provides a theoretical basis for constructing a probabilistic ATMS by associating proper probability distributions on assumptions. In this way, we can not only produce labels for all nodes in the system, but also calculate the probability of any of such nodes in it. The nogood environments can also be obtained automatically. Therefore, extended incidence calculus and the ATMS are equivalent in carrying out inferences at both the symbolic level and the numerical level. This extends a result due to Laskey and Lehner.

Do development and learning really decrease memory? On similarity and category-based induction in adults and children

In a recently published study, Sloutsky and Fisher [Sloutsky, V. M., & Fisher, A.V. (2004a). When development and learning decrease memory: Evidence against category-based induction in children. Psychological Science, 15, 553-558; Sloutsky, V. M., & Fisher, A. V. (2004b). Induction and categorization in young children: A similarity-based model. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 133, 166-188.] demonstrated that children have better memory for the items that they generalise to than do adults. On the basis of this finding, they claim that children and adults use different mechanisms for inductive generalisations;whereas adults focus on shared category membership, children project properties on the basis of perceptual similarity. Sloutsky & Fisher attribute children's enhanced recognition memory to the more detailed processing required by this similarity-based mechanism. In Experiment I we show that children look at the stimulus items for longer than adults. In Experiment 2 we demonstrate that although when given just 250 ms to inspect the items children remain capable of making accurate inferences, their subsequent memory for those items decreases significantly. These findings suggest that there are no necessary conclusions to be drawn from Sloutsky & Fisher's results about developmental differences in generalisation strategy. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Searching and planning: Young children's reasoning about past and future event sequences

Six experiments examined children's ability to make inferences using temporal order information. Children completed versions of a task involving a toy zoo; one version required reasoning about past events (search task) and the other required reasoning about future events (planning task). Children younger than 5 years failed both the search and the planning tasks, whereas 5-year-olds passed both (Experiments 1 and 2). However, when the number of events in the sequence was reduced (Experiment 3), 4-year-olds were successful on the search task but not the planning task. Planning difficulties persisted even when relevant cues were provided (Experiments 4 and 5). Experiment 6 showed that improved performance on the search task found in Experiment 3 was not due to the removal of response ambiguity.

Alternative antecedents, probabilities, and the suppression of fallacies in Wason's selection task

Three experiments examined the influence of a second rule on the pattern of card selections on Wason's selection task. In Experiment 1 participants received a version of the task with a single test rule or one of two versions of the task with the same original test rule together with a second rule. The probability of q was manipulated in the two-rules conditions by varying the size of the antecedent set in the second rule. The results showed a significant suppression of q card and not-p card selections in the alternative-rule conditions, but no difference as a function of antecedent set size. In Experiment 2 the size of the antecendent set in the two-rules conditions was manipulated using the context of a computer printing double-sided cards. The results showed a significant reduction of q card selections in the two-rules conditions, but no effect of p set size. In Experiment 3 the scenario accompanying the rule was manipulated, and it specified a single alternative antecedent or a number of alternative antecedents. The q card selection rates were not affected by the scenario manipulation but again were suppressed by the presence of a second rule. Our results suggest that people make inferences about the unseen side of the cards when engaging with the task and that these inferences are systematically influenced by the presence of a second rule, but are not influenced by the probabilistic characteristics of this rule. These findings are discussed in the context of decision theoretic views of selection task performance (Oaksford Chater, 1994).