Outlier effects on robust joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data

Robust joint modelling is an emerging field of research. Through the advancements in electronic patient healthcare records, the popularly of joint modelling approaches has grown rapidly in recent years providing simultaneous analysis of longitudinal and survival data. This research advances previous work through the development of a novel robust joint modelling methodology for one of the most common types of standard joint models, that which links a linear mixed model with a Cox proportional hazards model. Through t-distributional assumptions, longitudinal outliers are accommodated with their detrimental impact being down weighed and thus providing more efficient and reliable estimates. The robust joint modelling technique and its major benefits are showcased through the analysis of Northern Irish end stage renal disease patients. With an ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease within the United Kingdom, there is a pressing demand to investigate the detrimental relationship between the changing haemoglobin levels of haemodialysis patients and their survival. As outliers within the NI renal data were found to have significantly worse survival, identification of outlying individuals through robust joint modelling may aid nephrologists to improve patient's survival. A simulation study was also undertaken to explore the difference between robust and standard joint models in the presence of increasing proportions and extremity of longitudinal outliers. More efficient and reliable estimates were obtained by robust joint models with increasing contrast between the robust and standard joint models when a greater proportion of more extreme outliers are present. Through illustration of the gains in efficiency and reliability of parameters when outliers exist, the potential of robust joint modelling is evident. The research presented in this thesis highlights the benefits and stresses the need to utilise a more robust approach to joint modelling in the presence of longitudinal outliers.

Apoptosis and cell-cycle regulatory proteins in colorectal carcinoma: relationship to tumour stage and patient survival

The quantitative assessment of apoptotic index (AI) and mitotic index (MI) and the immunoreactivity of p53, bcl-2, p21, and mdm2 were examined in tumour and adjacent normal tissue samples from 30 patients with colonic and 22 with rectal adenocarcinoma. Individual features and combined profiles were correlated with clinicopathological parameters and patient survival data to assess their prognostic value. Increased AI was significantly associated with increased bcl-2 expression (p

Temporal characterization and in vitro comparison of cell survival following the delivery of 3D-conformal, intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT)

A phantom was designed and implemented for the delivery of treatment plans to cells in vitro. Single beam, 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) plans, inverse planned five-field intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), nine-field IMRT, single-arc volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and dual-arc VMAT plans were created on a CT scan of the phantom to deliver 3 Gy to the cell layer and verified using a Farmer chamber, 2D ionization chamber array and gafchromic film. Each plan was delivered to a 2D ionization chamber array to assess the temporal characteristics of the plan including delivery time and 'cell's eye view' for the central ionization chamber. The effective fraction time, defined as the percentage of the fraction time where any dose is delivered to each point examined, was also assessed across 120 ionization chambers. Each plan was delivered to human prostate cancer DU-145 cells and normal primary AGO-1522b fibroblast cells. Uniform beams were delivered to each cell line with the delivery time varying from 0.5 to 20.54 min. Effective fraction time was found to increase with a decreasing number of beams or arcs. For a uniform beam delivery, AGO-1552b cells exhibited a statistically significant trend towards increased survival with increased delivery time. This trend was not repeated when the different modulated clinical delivery methods were used. Less sensitive DU-145 cells did not exhibit a significant trend towards increased survival with increased delivery time for either the uniform or clinical deliveries. These results confirm that dose rate effects are most prevalent in more radiosensitive cells. Cell survival data generated from uniform beam deliveries over a range of dose rates and delivery times may not always be accurate in predicting response to more complex delivery techniques, such as IMRT and VMAT.

The Conditional Phase-type distribution: Graphical Models for Continuous Non-Normal Data:The Conditional Phase-type (C-Ph) distribution:

Conditional Gaussian (CG) distributions allow the inclusion of both discrete and continuous variables in a model assuming that the continuous variable is normally distributed. However, the CG distributions have proved to be unsuitable for survival data which tends to be highly skewed. A new method of analysis is required to take into account continuous variables which are not normally distributed. The aim of this paper is to introduce the more appropriate conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution for representing a continuous non-normal variable while also incorporating the causal information in the form of a Bayesian network.

Mutational Status of the TP53 Gene As a Predictor of Response and Survival in Patients With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: Results From the LRF CLL4 Trial

PurposeTP53 mutations have been described in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and have been associated with poor prognosis in retrospective studies. We aimed to address the frequency and prognostic value of TP53 abnormalities in patients with CLL in the context of a prospective randomized trial.Patients and MethodsWe analyzed 529 CLL samples from the LRF CLL4 (Leukaemia Research Foundation Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia 4) trial (chlorambucil v fludarabine with or without cyclophosphamide) at the time of random assignment for mutations in the TP53 gene. TP53 mutation status was correlated with response and survival data.ResultsMutations of TP53 were found in 40 patients (7.6%), including 25 (76%) of 33 with 17p deletion and 13 (3%) of 487 without that deletion. There was no significant correlation between TP53 mutations and age, stage, IGHV gene mutations, CD38 and ZAP-70 expression, or any other chromosomal abnormality other than 17p deletion, in which concordance was high (96%). TP53 mutations were significantly associated with poorer overall response rates (27% v 83%; P <.001) and shorter progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS; 5-year PFS: 5% v 17%; 5-year OS: 20% v 59%; P <.001 for both). Multivariate analysis that included baseline clinical variables, treatment, and known adverse genetic factors confirmed that TP53 mutations have added prognostic value.ConclusionTP53 mutations are associated with impaired response and shorter survival in patients with CLL. Analysis of TP53 mutations should be performed in patients with CLL who have progressive disease before starting first-line treatment, and those with mutations should be selected for novel experimental therapies. J Clin Oncol 29: 2223-2229. (C) 2011 by American Society of Clinical Oncology

A phase 2 study of high-activity 186Re-HEDP with autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplant in progressive hormone-refractory prostate cancer metastatic to bone

Purpose: We investigated the potential for improvement in disease control by use of autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplant (PBSCT) to permit administration of high activities of 186Re-hydroxyethylidene diphosphonate (HEDP) in patients with progressive hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC).

Methods: Eligible patients had progressive HRPC metastatic to bone, good performance status and minimal soft tissue disease. Patients received 5,000 MBq of 186Re-HEDP i.v., followed 14 days later by PBSCT. Response was assessed using PSA, survival, pain scores and quality of life.

Results: Thirty-eight patients with a median age of 67 years (range 50–77) and a median PSA of 57 ng/ml (range 4–3,628) received a median activity of 4,978 MBq 186Re-HEDP (range 4,770–5,100 MBq). The most serious toxicity was short-lived grade 3 thrombocytopenia in 8 (21%) patients. The median survival of the group is 21 months (95%CI 18–24 months) with Kaplan-Meier estimated 1- and 2-year survival rates of 83% and 40% respectively. Thirty-one patients (81%, 95% CI 66–90%) had stable or reduced PSA levels 3 months post therapy while 11 (29%, 95% CI 15–49%) had PSA reductions of >50% lasting >4 weeks. Quality of life measures were stable or improved in 27 (66%) at 3 months.

Conclusion: We have shown that it is feasible and safe to deliver high-activity radioisotope therapy with PBSCT to men with metastatic HRPC. Response rates and survival data are encouraging; however, further research is needed to define optimal role of this treatment approach.

Low-dose studies of bystander cell killing with targeted soft X rays

The Gray Cancer Institute ultrasoft X-ray microprobe was used to quantify the bystander response of individual V79 cells exposed to a focused carbon K-shell (278 eV) X-ray beam. The ultrasoft X-ray microprobe is designed to precisely assess the biological response of individual cells irradiated in vitro with a very fine beam of low-energy photons. Characteristic C-K X rays are generated by a focused beam of 10 keV electrons striking a graphite target. Circular diffraction gratings (i.e. zone plates) are then employed to focus the X-ray beam into a spot with a radius of 0.25 mum at the sample position. Using this microbeam technology, the correlation between the irradiated cells and their nonirradiated neighbors can be examined critically. The survival response of V79 cells irradiated with a C-K X-ray beam was measured in the 0-2-Gy dose range. The response when all cells were irradiated was compared to that obtained when only a single cell was exposed. The cell survival data exhibit a linear-quadratic response when all cells were targeted (with evidence for hyper-sensitivity at low doses). When only a single cell was targeted within the population, 10% cell killing was measured. In contrast to the binary bystander behavior reported by many other investigations, the effect detected was initially dependent on dose (200 mGy). In the low-dose region (

Experimenting with the Coxian Phase-Type Distribution to Uncover Suitable Fits

In the past few decades, Coxian phase-type distributions have become increasingly more popular as a means of representing survival times. In healthcare, they are considered suitable for modelling the length of stay of patients in hospital and more recently for modelling the patient waiting times in Accident and Emergency Departments. The Coxian phase-type distribution has not only been shown to provide a good representation of real survival data, but its interpretation seems reasonably initiative to the medical experts. The drawback, however, is fitting the distribution to the data. There have been many attempts at accurately estimating the Coxian phase-type parameters. This paper wishes to examine the most promising of the approaches reported in the literature to determine the most accurate. Three performance measures are introduced to assess the fitting process of the algorithms along with the likelihood values and AIC to examine the goodness of fit and complexity of the model. Previous research suggests that the fitting process is strongly influenced by the initial parameter estimates and the data itself being quite variable. To overcome this, one experiment in this research paper will use the same initial parameter values for each estimation and perform the fits on the data simulated from a Coxian phase-type distribution with known parameters.

Polyomavirus enhancer activator 3 protein promotes breast cancer metastatic progression through Snail-induced epithelial-mesenchymal transition.

Polyomavirus enhancer activator 3 protein (Pea3), also known as ETV4, is a member of the Ets-transcription factor family, which promotes metastatic progression in various types of solid cancer. Pea3-driven epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) has been described in lung and ovarian cancers. The mechanisms of Pea3-induced EMT, however, are largely unknown. Here we show that Pea3 overexpression promotes EMT in human breast epithelial cells through transactivation of Snail (SNAI1), an activator of EMT. Pea3 binds to the human Snail promoter through the two proximal Pea3 binding sites and enhances Snail expression. In addition, knockdown of Pea3 in invasive breast cancer cells results in down-regulation of Snail, partial reversal of EMT, and reduced invasiveness in vitro. Moreover, knockdown of Snail partially rescues the phenotype induced by Pea3 overexpression, suggesting that Snail is one of the mediators bridging Pea3 and EMT, and thereby metastatic progression of the cancer cells. In four breast cancer patient cohorts whose microarray and survival data were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database, Pea3 and Snail expression are significantly correlated with each other and with overall survival of breast cancer patients. We further demonstrate that nuclear localization of Pea3 is associated with Snail expression in breast cancer cell lines and is an independent predictor of overall survival in a Chinese breast cancer patient cohort. In conclusion, our results suggest that Pea3 may be an important prognostic marker and a therapeutic target for metastatic progression of human breast cancer. © 2011 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Low-dose hypersensitivity in Chinese hamster V79 cells targeted with counted protons using a charged-particle microbeam

The Gray Laboratory charged-particle microbeam has been used to assess the clonogenic ability of Chinese hamster V79 cells after irradiation of their nuclei with a precisely defined number of protons with energies of 1.0 and 3.2 MeV. The microbeam uses a 1-mum. silica capillary collimator to deliver protons to subcellular targets with high accuracy. The detection system is based on a miniature photomultiplier tube positioned above the cell dish, which detects the photons generated by the passage of the charged particles through an 18-mum-thick scintillator placed below the cells. With this system, a detection efficiency of greater than 99% is achieved. The cells are plated on specially designed dishes (3-mum-thick Mylar base), and the nuclei are identified by fluorescence microscopy. After an incubation period of 3 days, the cells are revisited individually to assess the formation of colonies from the surviving cells. For each energy investigated, the survival curve obtained for the microbeam shows a significant deviation below I Gy from a response extrapolated using the LQ model for the survival data above 1 Gy. The data are well fitted by a model that supports the hypothesis that radioresistance is induced by low-dose hypersensitivity. These studies demonstrate the potential of the microbeam for performing studies of the effects of single charged particles on cells in vitro. The hypersensitive responses observed are comparable with those reported by others using different radiations and techniques. (C) 2001 by Radiation Research Society.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC_Ph) for patient waiting time with a logistic regression component to predict patient admission to hospital

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models are a family of models which represent skewed survival data conditioned on specific inter-related discrete variables. The survival data is modeled using a Coxian phase-type distribution which is associated with the inter-related variables using a range of possible data mining approaches such as Bayesian networks (BNs), the Naïve Bayes Classification method and classification regression trees. This paper utilizes the Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC-Ph) to explore the modeling of patient waiting times in an Accident and Emergency Department of a UK hospital. The resulting DC-Ph model takes on the form of the Coxian phase-type distribution conditioned on the outcome of a logistic regression model.

Epidemiology of MPN: What Do We Know?

The myeloproliferative neoplasms, are characterised by overproduction of myeloid cells. Chronic myeloid leukaemia, polycythaemia vera, essential thrombocythaemia, myelofibrosis and the very rare disorders chronic neutrophilic leukaemia, chronic eosinophilic leukaemia not otherwise specified and mastocytosis are all included in the group. Incidence and prevalence rates reported in the worldwide literature are presented in this review. Survival data on each condition is described. Information on the aetiology of the disorders is discussed including body mass index, diet, smoking and alcohol, allergies, associated medical conditions, occupation and environmental exposures with focus on recent new studies. The aetiology of the myeloproliferative neoplasms remains unknown, and this review of the current state of knowledge highlights the need for further comprehensive research.

Dose-response relationship in phase 1 clinical trials: a European Drug Development Network (EDDN) Collaboration Study

Introduction: Because a dose–response relationship is characteristic of conventional chemotherapy, this concept is widely used for the development of novel cytotoxic (CTX) drugs. However, the need to reach the MTD to obtain optimal benefit with molecularly targeted agents (MTA) is controversial. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between dose and efficacy in a large cohort of phase I patients with solid tumors.

Experimental Design: We collected data on 1,182 consecutive patients treated in phase I trials in 14 European institutions in 2005–2007. Inclusion criteria were: (i) patients treated within completed single-agent studies in which a maximum-administered dose was defined and (ii) RECIST/survival data available.

Results: Seventy-two percent of patients were included in trials with MTA (N = 854) and 28% in trials with CTX (N = 328). The objective response (OR) rate was 3% and disease control at 6 months was 11%. OR for CTX was associated with higher doses (median 92% of MTD); this was not the case for MTA, where patients achieving OR received a median of 50% of MTD. For trials with MTA, patients treated at intermediate doses (40%–80%) had better survival compared with those receiving low or high doses (P = 0.038). On the contrary, there was a direct association between higher dose and better OS for CTX agents (P = 0.003).

Conclusion: Although these results support the development of novel CTX based on MTD, we found no direct relationship between higher doses and response with MTA in unselected patients. However, the longest OS was seen in patients treated with MTA at intermediate doses (40%–80% of MTD)