ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of utmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies, and government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data to anticipate future life expectancy and hence quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age, and cohort and forecast these trends into the future by using standard statistical methods. These approaches rely on the assumption that structural breaks in the trend do not exist or do not have a significant impact on the mortality forecasts. Recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive investigation of the presence or of structural breaks in a selection of leading mortality models. We find that structural breaks are present in the majority of cases. In particular, we find that allowing for structural break, where present, improves the forecast result significantly.

The G20 and Monetary Policy Stasis

Since the financial crash of 2008 monetary policy has been in a state of stasis – a condition in which things are not changing, moving, or progressing, but rather appear frozen. Interest rates have been frozen at low levels for a considerable period time. Inflation targets have consistently been missed, through phases of both overshooting and undershooting. At the same time, a variety of unconventional monetary policies involving asset purchases and liquidity provision have been pursued. Questions have been raised from a variety of sources, including various international organizations, covering distinct BIS and IMF positions about the continuing validity and sustainability of existing monetary policy frameworks, not least because inflation targeting has ceased to act as reliable guide for policy for over six years. Despite this central banks have been reluctant to debate moving to a new formal policy framework. This article argues that as an apex policy forum only the G20 leaders’ summits has the necessary political authority to call their central banks to account and initiate a wide ranging debate on the future of monetary policy. A case is made for convening a monetary policy working group to discuss a range of positions, including those of the BIS and IMF, and to make recommendations, because the G20 has been most effective in displaying international financial leadership, when leaders have convened and made use of specialist working groups.

Reconstructing the Social Fabric amid On-going Violence: Attitudes toward Reconciliation and Structural Transformation in Colombia

Given the increase of reconciliation processes initiated amid on-going violence, this study focuses on community reconciliation and its relation to structural transformation, or social reconstruction through reforming unjust institutions and practices that facilitate protracted violent conflict. Drawing lessons from the Caribbean coast of Colombia, mixed method analyses include eight in-depth interviews and 184 surveys. Four key dimensions of reconciliation – truth, justice, mercy, peace – are examined. In the interviews, participants prioritize reconstructing the truth and bringing perpetrators to justice as essential aspects of reconciliation. Notions of mercy and forgiveness are less apparent. For the participants, sustainable peace is dependent on structural transformation to improve livelihoods. These data, however, do not indicate how this understanding of reconciliation may relate to individual participation in reconciliation processes. Complementing the qualitative data, quantitative analyses identify some broad patterns that relate to participation in reconciliation events. Compared to those who did not participate, individuals who engaged in reconciliation initiatives report higher levels of personal experience with violence, live alongside demobilized paramilitaries, are more engaged in civic life, and express greater preference for structural transformation. The paper concludes with policy implications that integrate reconciliation and structural transformation to deepen efforts to rebuild the social fabric amid violence.

Experimental and Modelling Studies of the Thermodynamics and Kinetics of Phase and Structural Transformations in a Gamma TiAl-based Alloy

This work combines microscopy, synchrotron radiation X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry and thermodynamic calculations in the characterisation of phase transformation behaviour of a Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy upon continuous heating at constant rates. It has been found that the Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy after being forged at 1200 °C without further treatment has a duplex microstructure consisting of fine equiaxed and lamellar ? grains with a small amount of a2 plates and particles and about 1 wt.% B2 phase. Differential scanning calorimetry revealed reproducibly several thermal effects upon heating of the as-forged alloy. These thermal effects are related to the equilibration and homogenisation of the sample, change of phase ratios between a2, ? and B2 phases in particular the increase of B2 in respect to a2 and ?, and the following five phase transformations: a2 + ? + B2 a + ? + B2, a + ? + B2 a + ?, ? + a a, a a + ß, a + ß a + ß + L. The observation of these transformations by differential scanning calorimetry is largely in agreement with literature phase diagrams and thermodynamic calculations, though care is needed to consider the different alloy compositions. Kinetics of the ? + a a phase transformation in the Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy has been quantitatively derived from the calorimetry data, giving phase compositions at any point during the transformation upon continuous heating.

Maximum of dielectric permittivity caused by structural transition in ferroelectric BaTiO3-SrTiO3 superlattices

We invoke the onset of dislocations along the BaTiO3-SrTiO3 interface as reported by Wunderlich et al. to explain the non-monotonic behaviour of the dielectric permittivity as a function of superlattice periodicity and the less than four-fold in-plane symmetry at the dielectric maximum. At a periodicity of about 10/10, depending on composition and growth mechanism, several groups report a maximum of dielectric permittivity. In addition to that we observe in-plane symmetry less than tetragonal for 10/10 superlattices by HR-XRD, in contrast to initial low-resolution data from Tabata et al. thus challenging the assumption of unrelaxed strain all the way through the superlattice. The aim of this article is to link both effects to the increasing volume fraction of conducting layers close to the interface in series with the superlattice layers.

Stakeholders and perspectivism in qualitative policy evaluation: A realist reflection

This paper examines the epistemological bases for the inclusion of stakeholders in policy research. While it concedes that the input of stakeholders provides essential expert and experiential knowledge for the understanding of complex policies and programmes, it contends that the approach which assumes that all interpretations of policy including those of stakeholders should be afforded equal validity, which we term relativist perspectivism, undermines the possibility of robust research by allowing power to replace methodological rigour as the primary research dynamic. It is noted that this problem tends to be more acute when the research is qualitative. A study into the gendered effects of Common Agricultural Policy reforms is used as an illustrative example of how research can be compromised by relativist perspectivism. It is argued that realist research methodologies uniquely provide the capacity to maintain epistemological robustness, while also being able to take due account of the perspectives of stakeholders.

Structural change in multipartite entanglement sharing: A random matrix approach

We study the typical entanglement properties of a system comprising two independent qubit environments interacting via a shuttling ancilla. The initial preparation of the environments is modeled using random matrix techniques. The entanglement measure used in our study is then averaged over many histories of randomly prepared environmental states. Under a Heisenberg interaction model, the average entanglement between the ancilla and one of the environments remains constant, regardless of the preparation of the latter and the details of the interaction. We also show that, upon suitable kinematic and dynamical changes in the ancillaenvironment subsystems, the entanglement-sharing structure undergoes abrupt modifications associated with a change in the multipartite entanglement class of the overall system's state. These results are invariant with respect to the randomized initial state of the environments.

Structural changes in quasi-one-dimensional many-electron systems: From linear to zigzag and beyond

Many-electron systems confined to a quasi-one-dimensional geometry by a cylindrical distribution of positive charge have been investigated by density functional computations in the unrestricted local spin density approximation. Our investigations have been focused on the low-density regime, in which electrons are localized. The results reveal a wide variety of different charge and spin configurations, including linear and zig-zag chains, single-and double-strand helices, and twisted chains of dimers. The spin-spin coupling turns from weakly antiferromagnetic at relatively high density, to weakly ferromagnetic at the lowest densities considered in our computations. The stability of linear chains of localized charge has been investigated by analyzing the radial dependence of the self-consistent potential and by computing the dispersion relation of low-energy harmonic excitations.

Using Room Temperature Ionic Liquids as Solvents to Probe Structural Effects in Electro-Reduction Processes. Electrochemical Behavior of Mutagenic Disperse Nitroazo Dyes in Room Temperature Ionic Liquids

The electrochemical reduction of the disperse azo dyes Red1, Red13 and Orange1 (Or1) was investigated in the RTILs [C(4)mim][NTf2] and [C(4)mpyrr][NTf2], and in contrast with their behavior in conventional aprotic solvents, was shown to proceed via a reversible one electron step to form stable radical anion, which is further reduced at more negative potentials to the dianion. In [C(4)mpyrr][NTf2], cleavage of the N-H bond on the secondary amine was inferred for Orange1, and the ease at which this cleavage occurred is rationalized in terms of acidity of the amine moiety. The ease of reduction was observed to decrease in the order Or1 > Red13 > Red1, and is related to the electron delocalization within the molecule and the electron withdrawing power of the substituents.