Path-Dependency, Stocks, Switching Points, Flows: Reflections on Long-term Global Change and Local Opportunities

This paper examines the possibilities for peripheral localities to achieve upward mobility in the world-system by “hooking on” to larger processes of world-system accumulation. In particular, is it possible for economies that are dependent on foreign investment to receive a flow of investments that is high enough to overcome the negative impacts of a high stock of foreign investment, thus enabling them to cross a threshold and achieve upward mobility in the world-system? An analysis of therecent experience of the southern Irish “Celtic Tiger” economy during 1990-2000 indicates that such an upward movement is possible on the basis of massive foreign investment inflows. On closer examination, however, the Irish-type model appears to be highly deficient, because a high proportion of growth is illusionary and also on grounds of social desirability and lack of generalizability.

Commercial oyster stocks as a potential source of larvae in the regeneration of Ostrea edulis in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland.

Ostrea edulis was extremely rare in the wild in Strangford Lough from the early 1900s until renewed spatfall was observed at a number of sites in the 1990s. A monitoring programme was undertaken to investigate the presence and distribution of planktonic oyster larvae at nine sites around the lough between June and September in 1997 and 1998 as a precursor to studies of spatfall patterns. Larval densities at sites in the northern basin of the lough were significantly higher than those in the southern basin where larvae were lacking or in low numbers. Densities and sizes of oyster larvae showed significant temporal variation suggesting pulsed larval release. Larval densities also showed significant spatial variation with higher densities at sites closer to commercial stocks pointing to these as the main source of oyster larvae. This hypothesis was supported during a larval flux study over a complete tidal cycle which indicated a 90% net tidal movement of O. edulis larvae from the entrance of the bay where commercial stocks were held to the main body of the lough. Thus the maintenance of dense commercial stocks of flat oysters may provide the key to the redevelopment of native oyster beds in Strangford Lough and elsewhere by providing an initial broodstock nucleus from which larvae can be exported.

Soil Carbon stocks and schanges in the Republic of Ireland

The soil carbon (C) stock of the Republic of Ireland is estimated to have been 2048 Mt in 1990 and 2021 Mt in 2000. Peat holds around 53% of the soil C stock, but on 17% of the land area. The C density of soils (t C ha-1) is mapped at 2 km*2 km resolution. The greatest soil C densities occur where deep raised bogs are the dominant soil; in these grid squares C density can reach 3000 t C ha-1. Most of the loss of soil C between 1990 and 2000-up to 23 Mt C (1% of 1990 soil C stock)-was through industrial peat extraction. The average annual change in soil C stocks from 1990 to 2000 due to land use change was estimated at around 0.02% of the 1990 stock. Considering uncertainties in the data used to calculate soil C stocks and changes, the small average annual 'loss' could be regarded as 'no change'.

Can traditional harvesting methods for cockles be accommodated in a Special Area of Conservation?

The European Natura 2000 project attempts to balance conservation and exploitation by permitting activities that do not affect the conservation status of designated sites. Given the scale of Natura 2000, guidelines are needed to facilitate the drafting of simple site management plans. This need is particularly acute for traditional harvesting methods for which there is usually strong local opposition to the imposition of controls. These issues were examined in Strangford Lough, a special area of conservation where cockles have traditionally been harvested by hand-raking. Raking was found not to affect the ability of cockles to rebury. There were significant reductions in Zostera biomass when raking was carried out within eelgrass beds (a 90% reduction in biomass available to winter migrant birds from summer raking). Traditional harvesting methods could therefore be accepted in Strangford as long as Zostera beds are avoided. A relatively low intensity of harvesting activity in Strangford Lough probably reflects low cockle densities (average 91.8 m(-2)), with the most economically valuable individuals at some distance from points of access to the shore. An economically feasible management plan could sanction traditional harvesting and result in the implementation of more resource-intensive management only if increases in cockle stocks and market prices stimulate large increases in harvesting activity.

Volatile and persistent real exchange rates with or without sticky prices

The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Two methodologies are employed to explore this model's ability to generate volatile and persistent exchange rates. In the first, actual data is used for the exogenous driving processes. In the second, the model is simulated using estimated forcing processes. The theory, in both cases, is capable of explaining the high volatility and persistence of real and nominal exchange rates as well as the high correlation between real and nominal rates. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rate disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habitpersistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

Prices and Wages in Ireland, 1700-1850

The article presents primary research on rural wages and the prices of agricultural goods and draws conclusions concerning the trend in the living conditions of rural workers in the century before the Great Irish Famine of 1845-1850.