Statistic Complexity: Combining Kolmogorov Complexity with an Ensemble Approach

Background: The evaluation of the complexity of an observed object is an old but outstanding problem. In this paper we are tying on this problem introducing a measure called statistic complexity.

Interobserver agreement of the Gross Motor Function Classification System in an ambulant population of children with cerebral palsy

Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level was reported by three independent assessors in a population of children with cerebral palsy (CP) aged between 4 and 18 years (n=184; 112 males, 72 females; mean age 10y 10mo [SD 3y 7mo]). A software algorithm also provided a computed GMFCS level from a regional CP registry. Participants had clinical diagnoses of unilateral (n=94) and bilateral (n=84) spastic CP, ataxia (n=4), dyskinesia (n=1), and hypotonia (n=1), and could walk independently with or without the use of an aid (GMFCS Levels I-IV). Research physiotherapist (n=184) and parent/guardian data (n=178) were collected in a research environment. Data from the child's community physiotherapist (n=143) were obtained by postal questionnaire. Results, using the kappa statistic with linear weighting (?1w), showed good agreement between the parent/guardian and research physiotherapist (?1w=0.75) with more moderate levels of agreement between the clinical physiotherapist and researcher (?1w=0.64) and the clinical physiotherapist and parent/guardian (?1w=0.57). Agreement was consistently better for older children (>2y). This study has shown that agreement with parent report increases with therapists'experience of the GMFCS and knowledge of the child at the time of grading. Substantial agreement between a computed GMFCS and an experienced therapist (?1w=0.74) also demonstrates the potential for extrapolation of GMFCS rating from an existing CP registry, providing the latter has sufficient data on locomotor ability.

A time-domain approach to the analysis and modeling of on-body propagation characteristics using synchronized measurements at 2.45 GHz

Modeling of on-body propagation channels is of paramount importance to those wishing to evaluate radio channel performance for wearable devices in body area networks (BANs). Difficulties in modeling arise due to the highly variable channel conditions related to changes in the user's state and local environment. This study characterizes these influences by using time-series analysis to examine and model signal characteristics for on-body radio channels in user stationary and mobile scenarios in four different locations: anechoic chamber, open office area, hallway, and outdoor environment. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions are reported and shown to be dependent on body state and surroundings. Autoregressive (AR) transfer functions are used to perform time-series analysis and develop models for fading in various on-body links. Due to the non-Gaussian nature of the logarithmically transformed observed signal envelope in the majority of mobile user states, a simple method for reproducing the failing based on lognormal and Nakagami statistics is proposed. The validity of the AR models is evaluated using hypothesis testing, which is based on the Ljung-Box statistic, and the estimated distributional parameters of the simulator output compared with those from experimental results.

Unite and conquer: univariate and multivariate approaches for finding differentially expressed gene sets

Motivation: Recently, many univariate and several multivariate approaches have been suggested for testing differential expression of gene sets between different phenotypes. However, despite a wealth of literature studying their performance on simulated and real biological data, still there is a need to quantify their relative performance when they are testing different null hypotheses.

Results: In this article, we compare the performance of univariate and multivariate tests on both simulated and biological data. In the simulation study we demonstrate that high correlations equally affect the power of both, univariate as well as multivariate tests. In addition, for most of them the power is similarly affected by the dimensionality of the gene set and by the percentage of genes in the set, for which expression is changing between two phenotypes. The application of different test statistics to biological data reveals that three statistics (sum of squared t-tests, Hotelling's T2, N-statistic), testing different null hypotheses, find some common but also some complementing differentially expressed gene sets under specific settings. This demonstrates that due to complementing null hypotheses each test projects on different aspects of the data and for the analysis of biological data it is beneficial to use all three tests simultaneously instead of focusing exclusively on just one.

Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks

In this paper, we extend the heterogeneous panel data stationarity test of Hadri [Econometrics Journal, Vol. 3 (2000) pp. 148–161] to the cases where breaks are taken into account. Four models with different patterns of breaks under the null hypothesis are specified. Two of the models have been already proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al.[Econometrics Journal,Vol. 8 (2005) pp. 159–175]. The moments of the statistics corresponding to the four models are derived in closed form via characteristic functions.We also provide the exact moments of a modified statistic that do not asymptotically depend on the location of the break point under the null hypothesis. The cases where the break point is unknown are also considered. For the model with breaks in the level and no time trend and for the model with breaks in the level and in the time trend, Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Econometrics Journal, Vol. 8 (2005) pp. 159–175]showed that the number of breaks and their positions may be allowed to differ acrossindividuals for cases with known and unknown breaks. Their results can easily be extended to the proposed modified statistic. The asymptotic distributions of all the statistics proposed are derived under the null hypothesis and are shown to be normally distributed. We show by simulations that our suggested tests have in general good performance in finite samples except the modified test. In an empirical application to the consumer prices of 22 OECD countries during the period from 1953 to 2003, we found evidence of stationarity once a structural break and cross-sectional dependence are accommodated.

TESTING FOR STATIONARITY IN HETEROGENEOUS PANEL DATA IN THE CASE OF MODEL MISSPECIFICATION

This paper investigates the performance of the tests proposed by Hadri and by Hadri and Larsson for testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data under model misspecification. The panel tests are based on the well known KPSS test (cf. Kwiatkowski et al.) which considers two models: stationarity around a deterministic level and stationarity around a deterministic trend. There is no study, as far as we know, on the statistical properties of the test when the wrong model is used. We also consider the case of the simultaneous presence of the two types of models in a panel. We employ two asymptotics: joint asymptotic, T, N -> infinity simultaneously, and T fixed and N allowed to grow indefinitely. We use Monte Carlo experiments to investigate the effects of misspecification in sample sizes usually used in practice. The results indicate that the assumption that T is fixed rather than asymptotic leads to tests that have less size distortions, particularly for relatively small T with large N panels (micro-panels) than the tests derived under the joint asymptotics. We also find that choosing a deterministic trend when a deterministic level is true does not significantly affect the properties of the test. But, choosing a deterministic level when a deterministic trend is true leads to extreme over-rejections. Therefore, when unsure about which model has generated the data, it is suggested to use the model with a trend. We also propose a new statistic for testing for stationarity in mixed panel data where the mixture is known. The performance of this new test is very good for both cases of T asymptotic and T fixed. The statistic for T asymptotic is slightly undersized when T is very small (

Methods to increase response to postal and electronic questionnaires

Background: Postal and electronic questionnaires are widely used for data collection in epidemiological studies but non-response reduces the effective sample size and can introduce bias. Finding ways to increase response to postal and electronic questionnaires would improve the quality of health research. Objectives: To identify effective strategies to increase response to postal and electronic questionnaires. Search strategy: We searched 14 electronic databases to February 2008 and manually searched the reference lists of relevant trials and reviews, and all issues of two journals. We contacted the authors of all trials or reviews to ask about unpublished trials. Where necessary, we also contacted authors to confirm methods of allocation used and to clarify results presented. We assessed the eligibility of each trial using pre-defined criteria. Selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials of methods to increase response to postal or electronic questionnaires. Data collection and analysis: We extracted data on the trial participants, the intervention, the number randomised to intervention and comparison groups and allocation concealment. For each strategy, we estimated pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in a random-effects model. We assessed evidence for selection bias using Egger's weighted regression method and Begg's rank correlation test and funnel plot. We assessed heterogeneity among trial odds ratios using a Chi 2 test and the degree of inconsistency between trial results was quantified using the I 2 statistic. Main results: Postal We found 481 eligible trials.The trials evaluated 110 different ways of increasing response to postal questionnaires.We found substantial heterogeneity among trial results in half of the strategies. The odds of response were at least doubled using monetary incentives (odds ratio 1.87; 95% CI 1.73 to 2.04; heterogeneity P < 0.00001, I 2 = 84%), recorded delivery (1.76; 95% CI 1.43 to 2.18; P = 0.0001, I 2 = 71%), a teaser on the envelope - e.g. a comment suggesting to participants that they may benefit if they open it (3.08; 95% CI 1.27 to 7.44) and a more interesting questionnaire topic (2.00; 95% CI 1.32 to 3.04; P = 0.06, I 2 = 80%). The odds of response were substantially higher with pre-notification (1.45; 95% CI 1.29 to 1.63; P < 0.00001, I 2 = 89%), follow-up contact (1.35; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.55; P < 0.00001, I 2 = 76%), unconditional incentives (1.61; 1.36 to 1.89; P < 0.00001, I 2 = 88%), shorter questionnaires (1.64; 95%CI 1.43 to 1.87; P < 0.00001, I 2 = 91%), providing a second copy of the questionnaire at follow up (1.46; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.90; P < 0.00001, I 2 = 82%), mentioning an obligation to respond (1.61; 95% CI 1.16 to 2.22; P = 0.98, I 2 = 0%) and university sponsorship (1.32; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.54; P < 0.00001, I 2 = 83%). The odds of response were also increased with non-monetary incentives (1.15; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.22; P < 0.00001, I 2 = 79%), personalised questionnaires (1.14; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.22; P < 0.00001, I 2 = 63%), use of hand-written addresses (1.25; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.45; P = 0.32, I 2 = 14%), use of stamped return envelopes as opposed to franked return envelopes (1.24; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.35; P < 0.00001, I 2 = 69%), an assurance of confidentiality (1.33; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.42) and first class outward mailing (1.11; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.21; P = 0.78, I 2 = 0%). The odds of response were reduced when the questionnaire included questions of a sensitive nature (0.94; 95% CI 0.88 to 1.00; P = 0.51, I 2 = 0%). Electronic: We found 32 eligible trials. The trials evaluated 27 different ways of increasing response to electronic questionnaires. We found substantial heterogeneity among trial results in half of the strategies. The odds of response were increased by more than a half using non-monetary incentives (1.72; 95% CI 1.09 to 2.72; heterogeneity P < 0.00001, I 2 = 95%), shorter e-questionnaires (1.73; 1.40 to 2.13; P = 0.08, I 2 = 68%), including a statement that others had responded (1.52; 95% CI 1.36 to 1.70), and a more interesting topic (1.85; 95% CI 1.52 to 2.26). The odds of response increased by a third using a lottery with immediate notification of results (1.37; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.65), an offer of survey results (1.36; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.61), and using a white background (1.31; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.56). The odds of response were also increased with personalised e-questionnaires (1.24; 95% CI 1.17 to 1.32; P = 0.07, I 2 = 41%), using a simple header (1.23; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.48), using textual representation of response categories (1.19; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.36), and giving a deadline (1.18; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.34). The odds of response tripled when a picture was included in an e-mail (3.05; 95% CI 1.84 to 5.06; P = 0.27, I 2 = 19%). The odds of response were reduced when "Survey" was mentioned in the e-mail subject line (0.81; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.97; P = 0.33, I 2 = 0%), and when the e-mail included a male signature (0.55; 95% CI 0.38 to 0.80; P = 0.96, I 2 = 0%). Authors' conclusions: Health researchers using postal and electronic questionnaires can increase response using the strategies shown to be effective in this systematic review. Copyright © 2009 The Cochrane Collaboration. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.


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The structure of the Beck Hopelessness Scale: A confirmatory factor analysis in UK students

The aim of this paper was to confirm the factor structure of the 20-item Beck Hopelessness Scale in a non-clinical population. Previous research has highlighted a lack of clarity in its construct validity with regards to this population.

Based on previous factor analytic findings from both clinical and non-clinical studies, 13 separate confirmatory factor models were specified and estimated using LISREL 8.72 to test the one, two and three-factor models.

Psychology and medical students at Queen's University, Belfast (n = 581) completed both the BHS and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI).

All models showed reasonable fit, but only one, a four-item single-factor model demonstrated a nonsignificant chi-squared statistic. These four items can be used to derive a Short-Form BHS (SBHS) in which increasing scores (0-4) corresponded with increasing scores in the BDI. The four items were also drawn from all three of Beck's proposed triad, and included both positively and negatively scored items.

This study in a UK undergraduate non-clinical population suggests that the BHS best measures a one-factor model of hopelessness. It appears that a shorter four-item scale can also measure this one-factor model. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of STOPP and START criteria: interrater reliability among pharmacists

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate prescribing is a well-documented problem in older people. The new screening tools, STOPP (Screening Tool of Older Peoples' Prescriptions) and START (Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment) have been formulated to identify potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) and potential errors of omissions (PEOs) in older patients. Consistent, reliable application of STOPP and START is essential for the screening tools to be used effectively by pharmacists. OBJECTIVE: To determine the interrater reliability among a group of clinical pharmacists in applying the STOPP and START criteria to elderly patients' records. METHODS: Ten pharmacists (5 hospital pharmacists, 5 community pharmacists) were given 20 patient profiles containing details including the patients' age and sex, current medications, current diagnoses, relevant medical histories, biochemical data, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Each pharmacist applied the STOPP and START criteria to each patient record. The PIMs and PEOs identified by each pharmacist were compared with those of 2 academic pharmacists who were highly familiar with the application of STOPP and START. An interrater reliability analysis using the k statistic (chance corrected measure of agreement) was performed to determine consistency between pharmacists. RESULTS: The median ? coefficients for hospital pharmacists and community pharmacists compared with the academic pharmacists for STOPP were 0.89 and 0.88, respectively, while those for START were 0.91 and 0.90, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Interrater reliability of STOPP and START tools between pharmacists working in different sectors is good. Pharmacists working in both hospitals and in the community can use STOPP and START reliably during their everyday practice to identify PIMs and PEOs in older patients.

Improved detection of acute myocardial infarction in patients with chest pain and significant left main stem coronary stenosis.

Background: Non-invasive diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) associated with significant left main stem (LMS) stenosis remains challenging.

Methods: Consecutive patients presenting with acute ischaemic-type chest pain from 2000 to 2010 were analysed. Entry criteria: 12-lead ECG and Body Surface Potential Map (BSPM) at presentation, cardiac troponin T (cTnT) =12?h and coronary angiography during admission. cTnT =0.03?µg/l defined AMI. ECG abnormalities assessed: STEMI by Minnesota criteria; ST elevation (STE) aVR =0.5?mm; ST depression (STD) =0.5?mm in =2 contiguous leads (CL); T-wave inversion (TWI) =1?mm in =2 CL. BSPM STE was =2?mm in anterior, =1?mm in lateral, inferior, right ventricular or high right anterior and =0.5?mm in posterior territories. Significant LMS stenosis was =70%.

Results: Enrolled were 2810 patients (aged 60?±?12 years; 71% male). Of these, 116 (4.1%) had significant LMS stenosis with AMI occurring in 92 (79%). STEMI by Minnesota criteria occurred in 13 (11%) (sensitivity 12%, specificity 92%), STE in lead aVR in 23 (20%) (sensitivity 23%, specificity 92%), TWI in 38 (33%) (sensitivity 34%, specificity 71%) and STD in 51 (44%) (sensitivity 49%, specificity 75%). BSPM STE occurred in 85 (73%): sensitivity 88%, specificity 83%, positive predictive value 95% and negative predictive value 65%. Of those with AMI, 74% had STE in either the high right anterior or right ventricular territories not identified by the 12-lead ECG. C-Statistic for AMI diagnosis using BSPM STE was 0.800 (P?<?0.001).

Conclusion: In patients with significant LMS stenosis presenting with chest pain, BSPM STE has improved sensitivity (88%), with specificity 83%, over 12-lead ECG in the diagnosis of AMI.

Supported Housing for People with Severe Mental Disorders

Background There has been a significant reduction in the number of people with severe mental illness who spend extended periods in long-stay hospitals. District health authorities, local authorities, housing associations and voluntary organisations are jointly expected to provide support for people with severe mental disorder/s. This 'support' may well involve some kind of special housing. Objectives To determine the effects of supported housing schemes compared with outreach support schemes or 'standard care' for people with severe mental disorder/s living in the community. Search methods For the 2006 update we searched the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group Trials Register (April 2006) and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, 2006 Issue 2). Selection criteria We included all relevant randomised, or quasi-randomised, trials dealing with people with 'severe mental disorder/s' allocated to supported housing, compared with outreach support schemes or standard care. We focused on outcomes of service utilisation, mental state, satisfaction with care, social functioning, quality of life and economic data. Data collection and analysis We reliably selected studies, quality rated them and undertook data extraction. For dichotomous data, we would have estimated relative risks (RR), with the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where possible, we would have calculated the number needed to treat statistic (NNT). We would have carried out analysis by intention-to-treat and would have summated normal continuous data using the weighted mean difference (WMD). We would have presented scale data for only those tools that had attained pre-specified levels of quality and undertaken tests for heterogeneity and publication bias. Main results Although 139 citations were acquired from the searches, no study met the inclusion criteria. Authors' conclusions Dedicated schemes whereby people with severe mental illness are located within one site or building with assistance from professional workers have potential for great benefit as they provide a 'safe haven' for people in need of stability and support. This, however, may be at the risk of increasing dependence on professionals and prolonging exclusion from the community. Whether or not the benefits outweigh the risks can only be a matter of opinion in the absence of reliable evidence. There is an urgent need to investigate the effects of supported housing on people with severe mental illness within a randomised trial.

A Bayesian analysis of the chromosome architecture of human disorders by integrating reductionist data

In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to estimate a chromosome and a disorder network from the Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM) database. In contrast to other approaches, we obtain statistic rather than deterministic networks enabling a parametric control in the uncertainty of the underlying disorder-disease gene associations contained in the OMIM, on which the networks are based. From a structural investigation of the chromosome network, we identify three chromosome subgroups that reflect architectural differences in chromosome-disorder associations that are predictively exploitable for a functional analysis of diseases.

Pre-hospital body surface potential mapping improves early diagnosis of acute coronary artery occlusion in patients with ventricular fibrillation and cardiac arrest

Aims: To determine whether 80-lead body surface potential mapping (BSPM) improves detection of acute coronary artery occlusion in patients presenting with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) and who survived to reach hospital. Methods and results: Of 645 consecutive patients with OHCA who were attended by the mobile coronary care unit, VF was the initial rhythm in 168 patients. Eighty patients survived initial resuscitation, 59 of these having had BSPM and 12-lead ECG post-return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and in 35 patients (age 69±13 yrs; 60% male) coronary angiography performed within 24. h post-ROSC. Of these, 26 (74%) patients had an acutely occluded coronary artery (TIMI flow grade [TFG] 0/1) at angiography. Twelve-lead ECG criteria showed ST-segment elevation (STE) myocardial infarction (STEMI) using Minnesota 9-2 criteria - sensitivity 19%, specificity 100%; ST-segment depression (STD) =0.05. mV in =2 contiguous leads - sensitivity 23%, specificity 89%; and, combination of STEMI or STD criteria - sensitivity 46%, specificity 100%. BSPM STE occurred in 23 (66%) patients. For the diagnosis of TFG 0/1 in a main coronary artery, BSPM STE had sensitivity 88% and specificity 100% (c-statistic 0.94), with STE occurring most commonly in either the posterior, right ventricular or high right anterior territories. Conclusion: Among OHCA patients presenting with VF and who survived resuscitation to reach hospital, post-resuscitation BSPM STE identifies acute coronary occlusion with sensitivity 88% and specificity 100% (c-statistic 0.94). © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

A test for psychometric function shift

A nonparametric, small-sample-size test for the homogeneity of two psychometric functions against the left- and right-shift alternatives has been developed. The test is designed to determine whether it is safe to amalgamate psychometric functions obtained in different experimental sessions. The sum of the lower and upper p-values of the exact (conditional) Fisher test for several 2 × 2 contingency tables (one for each point of the psychometric function) is employed as the test statistic. The probability distribution of the statistic under the null (homogeneity) hypothesis is evaluated to obtain corresponding p-values. Power functions of the test have been computed by randomly generating samples from Weibull psychometric functions. The test is free of any assumptions about the shape of the psychometric function; it requires only that all observations are statistically independent. © 2011 Psychonomic Society, Inc.

A comparison of the application of STOPP/START to patients' drug lists with and without clinical information

Background A European screening tool (STOPP/START) has been formulated to identify the prescribing of potentially inappropriate medicines (PIMs) and potential prescribing omissions (PPOs). Pharmacists working in community pharmacies could use STOPP/START as a guide to conducting medication use reviews; however, community pharmacists do not routinely have access to patients' clinical records. Objective To compare the PIM and PPO detection rates from application of the STOPP/START criteria to patients' medication details alone with the detection rates from application of STOPP/START to information on patients' medications combined with clinical information. Setting Community Pharmacy. Method Three pharmacists applied STOPP/START to 250 patient medication lists, containing information regarding dose, frequency and duration of treatment. The PIMs and PPOs identified by each pharmacist were compared with those identified by consensus agreement of two other pharmacists, who applied STOPP/START criteria using patients' full clinical records. Main outcome measure The main outcome measures were: (1) PIM and PPO detection rates among pharmacists with access to patients' clinical information compared to PIM and PPO detection rates among pharmacists using patients' medication information only, and (2) the levels of agreement (calculated using Cohen's kappa statistic (k)) for the three most commonly identified PIMs and PPOs. Results Pharmacists with access to patients' clinical records identified significantly fewer PIMs than pharmacists without (p = 0.002). The three most commonly identified PIMs were benzodiazepines, proton pump inhibitors and duplicate drug classes, with kappa (k) statistic agreement ranges of 0.87-0.97, 0.60-0.68 and 0.39-0.85 respectively. PPOs were identified more often (p