NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

The Adult Cystic Fibrosis Airway Microbiota Is Stable over Time and Infection Type, and Highly Resilient to Antibiotic Treatment of Exacerbations

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is characterized by defective mucociliary clearance and chronic airway infection by a complex microbiota. Infection, persistent inflammation and periodic episodes of acute pulmonary exacerbation contribute to an irreversible decline in CF lung function. While the factors leading to acute exacerbations are poorly understood, antibiotic treatment can temporarily resolve pulmonary symptoms and partially restore lung function. Previous studies indicated that exacerbations may be associated with changes in microbial densities and the acquisition of new microbial species. Given the complexity of the CF microbiota, we applied massively parallel pyrosequencing to identify changes in airway microbial community structure in 23 adult CF patients during acute pulmonary exacerbation, after antibiotic treatment and during periods of stable disease. Over 350,000 sequences were generated, representing nearly 170 distinct microbial taxa. Approximately 60% of sequences obtained were from the recognized CF pathogens Pseudomonas and Burkholderia, which were detected in largely non-overlapping patient subsets. In contrast, other taxa including Prevotella, Streptococcus, Rothia and Veillonella were abundant in nearly all patient samples. Although antibiotic treatment was associated with a small decrease in species richness, there was minimal change in overall microbial community structure. Furthermore, microbial community composition was highly similar in patients during an exacerbation and when clinically stable, suggesting that exacerbations may represent intrapulmonary spread of infection rather than a change in microbial community composition. Mouthwash samples, obtained from a subset of patients, showed a nearly identical distribution of taxa as expectorated sputum, indicating that aspiration may contribute to colonization of the lower airways. Finally, we observed a strong correlation between low species richness and poor lung function. Taken together, these results indicate that the adult CF lung microbiome is largely stable through periods of exacerbation and antibiotic treatment and that short-term compositional changes in the airway microbiota do not account for CF pulmonary exacerbations.

Lung Microbiota and Bacterial Abundance in Patients with Bronchiectasis when Clinically Stable and during Exacerbation

RATIONALE: Characterization of bacterial populations in infectious respiratory diseases will provide improved understanding of the relationship between the lung microbiota, disease pathogenesis and treatment outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: To comprehensively define lung microbiota composition during stable disease and exacerbation in bronchiectasis patients.

METHODS: Sputum was collected from patients when clinically stable and before and after completion of antibiotic treatment of exacerbations. Bacterial abundance and community composition were analyzed using anaerobic culture and 16S rDNA pyrosequencing.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In clinically stable patients, aerobic and anaerobic bacteria were detected in 40/40 (100%) and 33/40 (83%) sputum samples, respectively. The dominant organisms cultured were P. aeruginosa (n=10 patients), H. influenzae (n=12), Prevotella (n=18) and Veillonella (n=13). Pyrosequencing generated over 150,000 sequences, representing 113 distinct microbial taxa; the majority of observed community richness resulted from taxa present in low abundance with similar patterns of phyla distribution in clinically stable patients and patients at the onset of exacerbation. Following treatment of exacerbation, there was no change in total (p=0.925), aerobic (p=0.917) or anaerobic (p=0.683) load and only a limited shift in community composition. Agreement for detection of bacteria by culture and pyrosequencing was good for aerobic bacteria such as P. aeruginosa (kappa=0.84) but poorer for other genera including anaerobes. Lack of agreement was largely due to bacteria been detected by pyrosequencing but not by culture.

CONCLUSIONS: A complex microbiota is present in the lungs of bronchiectasis patients which remains stable through treatment of exacerbations suggesting that changes in microbiota composition do not account for exacerbations.

Temporal and geographical distribution of measles virus genotypes

The nucleotide sequence encoding the C terminus of the nucleocapsid protein of measles virus (MV) is the most variable in the genome. The sequence of this region is reported for 21 new MV strains and for virus RNA obtained from cases of subacute panencephalitis (SSPE) tissue. The nucleotide sequence of a total of 65 MV strains has been analysed using the CLUSTAL program to determine the relationships between the strains. An unrooted tree shows that eight different genotypes can be discerned amongst the sequences analysed so far. The data show that the C-terminal coding sequence of the nucleocapsid gene, although highly variable between strains, is stable in a given strain and does not appear to diverge in tissue culture. It therefore provides a good 'signature' sequence for specific genotypes. The sequence of this region can be used to discriminate new imported viruses from old 'endemic' strains of MV in a geographical area. The different genotypes are not geographically restricted although some appear to be the mainly 'endemic' types in large areas of the world. In global terms there appears to be at least four co-circulating genotypes of MV. The low level of divergence in the Edmonston lineage group isolated before 1970 indicates that some isolates are probably laboratory contaminants. This applies to some SSPE isolates such as the Halle, Mantooth and Horta-Barbosa strains as well as some wild-type isolates from that period.

Spatial distribution of arsenic and temporal variation of its concentration in rice

P>In order to gain insights into the transport and distribution of arsenic (As) in intact rice (Oryza sativa) plants and its unloading into the rice grain, we investigated the spatial distribution of As and the temporal variation of As concentration in whole rice plants at different growth stages. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that such a study has been performed.

Inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS) and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)-ICP-MS were used to analyze total As concentration and speciation. Moreover, synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence (SXRF) was used to investigate in situ As distribution in the leaf, internode, node and grain.

Total As concentrations of vegetative tissues increased during the 2 wk after flowering. The concentration of dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) in the caryopsis decreased progressively with its development, whereas inorganic As concentration remained stable. The ratios of As content between neighboring leaves or between neighboring internodes were c. 0.6. SXRF revealed As accumulation in the center of the caryopsis during its early development and then in the ovular vascular trace.

These results indicate that there are different controls on the unloading of inorganic As and DMA; the latter accumulated mainly in the caryopsis before flowering, whereas inorganic As was mainly transported into the caryopsis during grain filling. Moreover, nodes appeared to serve as a check-point in As distribution in rice shoots.

Accumulation, Subcellular Distribution and Toxicity of Copper in Earthworm (Eisenia fetida) in the Presence of Ciprofloxacin

Land application of wastes from concentrated animal feeding operations results in accumulation of copper (Cu) and antimicrobials in terrestrial systems. Interaction between Cu and antimicrobials may change Cu speciation in soil solution, and affect Cu bioavailability and toxicity. In this study, earthworms were exposed to quartz sand percolated with different concentrations of Cu and ciprofloxacin (CIP). Copper uptake by earthworms, its subcellular partition, and toxicity were studied. An increase in the applied CIP decreased the free Cu ion concentration in external solution and mortalities of earthworm, while Cu contents in earthworms increased. Copper and CIP in earthworms were fractionated into five fractions: a granular fraction (D), a fraction consisting of tissue fragments, cell membranes, and intact cells (E), a microsomal fraction (F), a denatured proteins fraction (G), and a heat-stable proteins fraction (H). Most of the CIP in earthworms was in fraction H. Copper was redistributed from the metal-sensitive fraction E to fractions D, F, G, and H with increasing CIP concentration. These results challenge the free ion activity model and suggested that Cu may be partly taken up as Cu-CIP complexes in earthworms, changing the bioavailability, subcellular distribution, and toxicity of Cu to earthworms.