Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 2. The role of host plant dynamics

This paper explores the relative effects of host plant dynamics and butterfly-related parameters on butterfly persistence. It considers an empty habitat network where a rare butterfly (Cupido minimus) became extinct in 1939 in part of its historical range in north Wales, UK. Surviving populations of the butterfly in southern Britain were visited to assess use of its host plant (Anthyllis vulneraria) in order to calibrate habitat suitability and carrying capacity in the empty network in north Wales. These data were used to deduce that only a portion ( similar to 19%) of the host plant network from north Wales was likely to be highly suitable for oviposition. Nonetheless, roughly 65,460 eggs (3273 adult equivalents) could be expected to be laid in north Wales, were the empty network to be populated at the same levels as observed on comparable plants in surviving populations elsewhere. Simulated metapopulations of C. minimus in the empty network revealed that time to extinction and patch occupancy were significantly influenced by carrying capacity, butterfly mean dispersal distance and environmental stochasticity, although for most reasonable parameter values, the model system persisted. Simulation outputs differed greatly when host plant dynamics was incorporated into the modelled butterfly dynamics. Cupido minimus usually went extinct when host plant were at low densities. In these simulations host plant dynamics appeared to be the most important determinant of the butterfly's regional extirpation. Modelling the outcome of a reintroduction programme to C. minimus variation at high quality locations, revealed that 65% of systems survived at least 100 years. Given the current amount of resources of the north Wales landscape, the persistence of C. minimus under a realistic reintroduction programme has a good chance of being successful, if carried out in conjunction with a host plant management programme.

Software Products for Modelling and Simulation in Materials Science

Models and software products have been developed for modelling, simulation and prediction of different correlations in materials science, including 1. the correlation between processing parameters and properties in titanium alloys and ?-titanium aluminides; 2. time–temperature–transformation (TTT) diagrams for titanium alloys; 3. corrosion resistance of titanium alloys; 4. surface hardness and microhardness profile of nitrocarburised layers; 5. fatigue stress life (S–N) diagrams for Ti–6Al–4V alloys. The programs are based on trained artificial neural networks. For each particular case appropriate combination of inputs and outputs is chosen. Very good performances of the models are achieved. Graphical user interfaces (GUI) are created for easy use of the models. In addition interactive text versions are developed. The models designed are combined and integrated in software package that is built up on a modular fashion. The software products are available in versions for different platforms including Windows 95/98/2000/NT, UNIX and Apple Macintosh. Description of the software products is given, to demonstrate that they are convenient and powerful tools for practical applications in solving various problems in materials science. Examples for optimisation of the alloy compositions, processing parameters and working conditions are illustrated. An option for use of the software in materials selection procedure is described.

The prediction of process-induced deformation in a thermoplastic composite in support of manufacturing simulation

Digital manufacturing techniques can simulate complex assembly sequences using computer-aided design-based, as-designed' part forms, and their utility has been proven across several manufacturing sectors including the ship building, automotive and aerospace industries. However, the reality of working with actual parts and composite components, in particular, is that geometric variability arising from part forming or processing conditions can cause problems during assembly as the as-manufactured' form differs from the geometry used for any simulated build validation. In this work, a simulation strategy is presented for the study of the process-induced deformation behaviour of a 90 degrees, V-shaped angle. Test samples were thermoformed using pre-consolidated carbon fibre-reinforced polyphenylene sulphide, and the processing conditions were re-created in a virtual environment using the finite element method to determine finished component angles. A procedure was then developed for transferring predicted part forms from the finite element outputs to a digital manufacturing platform for the purpose of virtual assembly validation using more realistic part geometry. Ultimately, the outcomes from this work can be used to inform process condition choices, material configuration and tool design, so that the dimensional gap between as-designed' and as-manufactured' part forms can be reduced in the virtual environment.