Predicting forest attributes In southeast Alaska using artificial neural networks

Artificial neural network (ANN) methods are used to predict forest characteristics. The data source is the Southeast Alaska (SEAK) Grid Inventory, a ground survey compiled by the USDA Forest Service at several thousand sites. The main objective of this article is to predict characteristics at unsurveyed locations between grid sites. A secondary objective is to evaluate the relative performance of different ANNs. Data from the grid sites are used to train six ANNs: multilayer perceptron, fuzzy ARTMAP, probabilistic, generalized regression, radial basis function, and learning vector quantization. A classification and regression tree method is used for comparison. Topographic variables are used to construct models: latitude and longitude coordinates, elevation, slope, and aspect. The models classify three forest characteristics: crown closure, species land cover, and tree size/structure. Models are constructed using n-fold cross-validation. Predictive accuracy is calculated using a method that accounts for the influence of misclassification as well as measuring correct classifications. The probabilistic and generalized regression networks are found to be the most accurate. The predictions of the ANN models are compared with a classification of the Tongass national forest in southeast Alaska based on the interpretation of satellite imagery and are found to be of similar accuracy.

The Effects of Social Class and Ethnicity on Gender Differences in GCSE Attainment: A Secondary Analysis of the Youth Cohort Study of England and Wales 1997-2001

This article is based upon a secondary analysis of the Youth Cohort Study of England and Wales 1998 and examines the effects of social class and ethnicity on gender differences in GCSE attainment for those who left school in 1997 (n = 14,662). The article shows that both social class and ethnicity exert a far greater influence on the GCSE performance of boys and girls than gender. Moreover, the article also shows that an interaction effect is present between social class and gender and also between ethnicity and gender in relation to their impact upon GCSE attainment. More specifically, the findings suggest that a strong correlation exists such that the lower the overall levels of educational attainment for any group (whether that group is defined in terms of social class or ethnicity), the higher the gender differences that exist between those within that group.

The contribution of qualitative research in designing a complex intervention for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in two different healthcare systems

Background: Developing complex interventions for testing in randomised controlled trials is of increasing importance in healthcare planning. There is a need for careful design of interventions for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD). It has been suggested that integrating qualitative research in the development of a complex intervention may contribute to optimising its design but there is limited evidence of this in practice. This study aims to examine the contribution of qualitative research in developing a complex intervention to improve the provision and uptake of secondary prevention of CHD within primary care in two different healthcare systems.

Methods: In four general practices, one rural and one urban, in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, patients with CHD were purposively selected. Four focus groups with patients (N = 23) and four with staff (N = 29) informed the development of the intervention by exploring how it could be tailored and integrated with current secondary prevention activities for CHD in the two healthcare settings. Following an exploratory trial the acceptability and feasibility of the intervention were discussed in four focus groups (17 patients) and 10 interviews (staff). The data were analysed using thematic analysis.

Results: Integrating qualitative research into the development of the intervention provided depth of information about the varying impact, between the two healthcare systems, of different funding and administrative arrangements, on their provision of secondary prevention and identified similar barriers of time constraints, training needs and poor patient motivation. The findings also highlighted the importance to patients of stress management, the need for which had been underestimated by the researchers. The qualitative evaluation provided depth of detail not found in evaluation questionnaires. It highlighted how the intervention needed to be more practical by minimising administration, integrating role plays into behaviour change training, providing more practical information about stress management and removing self-monitoring of lifestyle change.

Conclusion: Qualitative research is integral to developing the design detail of a complex intervention and tailoring its components to address individuals' needs in different healthcare systems. The findings highlight how qualitative research may be a valuable component of the preparation for complex interventions and their evaluation.