Overcoming the Scalability Challenges of Epidemic Simulations on Blue Waters

Modeling dynamical systems represents an important application class covering a wide range of disciplines including but not limited to biology, chemistry, finance, national security, and health care. Such applications typically involve large-scale, irregular graph processing, which makes them difficult to scale due to the evolutionary nature of their workload, irregular communication and load imbalance. EpiSimdemics is such an application simulating epidemic diffusion in extremely large and realistic social contact networks. It implements a graph-based system that captures dynamics among co-evolving entities. This paper presents an implementation of EpiSimdemics in Charm++ that enables future research by social, biological and computational scientists at unprecedented data and system scales. We present new methods for application-specific processing of graph data and demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods on a Cray XE6, specifically NCSA's Blue Waters system.

Scale of production and choice of technique in the engineering industries in developing countries

This article examines the relationship between scale of production, optimal choice of technique and costs for three engineering industries: nuts and bolts, iron founding and machine tools. In all three industries costs of production fell as the scale of output increased. This was associated with switches of technique and the spread of fixed costs over a larger number of units. The capital-output ratio fell and labour productivity increased with increases in scale while, in most cases, the capital-labour ratio increased. The implications of these findings are briefly discussed.

Evidence for complexity at the nanometer scale of radiation-induced DNA DSBs as a determinant of rejoining kinetics

The rejoining kinetics of double-stranded DNA fragments, along with measurements of residual damage after postirradiation incubation, are often used as indicators of the biological relevance of the damage induced by ionizing radiation of different qualities. Although it is widely accepted that high-LET radiation-induced double-strand breaks (DSBs) tend to rejoin with kinetics slower than low-LET radiation-induced DSBs, possibly due to the complexity of the DSB itself, the nature of a slowly rejoining DSB-containing DNA lesion remains unknown. Using an approach that combines pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) of fragmented DNA from human skin fibroblasts and a recently developed Monte Carlo simulation of radiation-induced DNA breakage and rejoining kinetics, we have tested the role of DSB-containing DNA lesions in the 8-kbp-5.7-Mbp fragment size range in determining the DSB rejoining kinetics. It is found that with low-LET X rays or high LET alpha particles, DSB rejoining kinetics data obtained with PFGE can be computer-simulated assuming that DSB rejoining kinetics does not depend on spacing of breaks along the chromosomes. After analysis of DNA fragmentation profiles, the rejoining kinetics of X-ray-induced DSBs could be fitted by two components: a fast component with a half-life of 0.9 +/- 0.5 h and a slow component with a half-life of 16 +/- 9 h. For a particles, a fast component with a half-life of 0.7 +/- 0.4 h and a slow component with a half-life of 12 5 h along with a residual fraction of unrepaired breaks accounting for 8% of the initial damage were observed. In summary, it is shown that genomic proximity of breaks along a chromosome does not determine the rejoining kinetics, so the slowly rejoining breaks induced with higher frequencies after exposure to high-LET radiation (0.37 +/- 0.12) relative to low-LET radiation (0.22 +/- 0.07) can be explained on the basis of lesion complexity at the nanometer scale, known as locally multiply damaged sites. (c) 2005 by Radiation Research Society.

A review of the global pesticide legislation and the scale of challenge in reaching the global harmonization of food safety standards

Pesticide use is important in agriculture to protect crops and improve productivity. However, they have the potential to cause adverse human health or environmental effects, dependent on exposure levels. This review examines existing pesticide legislation worldwide, focusing on the level of harmonisation, and impacts of differing legislation on food safety and trade. Pesticide legislation varies greatly worldwide as countries have different requirements guidelines and legal limits for plant protection. Developed nations have more stringent regulations than developing countries, which lack the resources and expertise to adequately implement and enforce legislation. Global differences in pesticide legislation act as a technical barrier to trade. International parties such as the European Union (EU), Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex), and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have attempted to harmonise pesticide legislation by providing maximum residue limits (MRLs), but globally these limits remain variable. Globally harmonised pesticide standards would serve to increase productivity, profits and trade, and enhance the ability to protect public health and the environment. 

Impacts of sewage outfalls on rocky shores: incorporating scale, biotic assemblage structure and variability into monitoring tools.

Coastal systems, such as rocky shores, are among the most heavily anthropogenically-impacted marine ecosystems and are also among the most productive in terms of ecosystem functioning. One of the greatest impacts on coastal ecosystems is nutrient enrichment from human activities such as agricultural run-off and discharge of sewage. The aim of this study was to identify and characterise potential effects of sewage discharges on the biotic diversity of rocky shores and to test current tools for assessing the ecological status of rocky shores in line with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). A sampling strategy was designed to test for effects of sewage outfalls on rocky shore assemblages on the east coast of Ireland and to identify the scale of the putative impact. In addition, a separate sampling programme based on the Reduced algal Species List (RSL), the current WFD monitoring tool for rocky shores in Ireland and the UK, was also completed by identifying algae and measuring percent cover in replicate samples on rocky shores during Summer. There was no detectable effect of sewage outfalls on benthic taxon diversity or assemblage structure. However, spatial variability of assemblages was greater at sites proximal or adjacent to sewage outfalls compared to shores without sewage outfalls present. Results based on the RSL, show that algal assemblages were not affected by the presence of sewage outfalls, except when classed into functional groups when variability was greater at the sites with sewage outfalls. A key finding of both surveys, was the prevalence of spatial and temporal variation of assemblages. It is recommended that future metrics of ecological status are based on quantified sampling designs, incorporate changes in variability of assemblages (indicative of community stability), consider shifts in assemblage structure and include both benthic fauna and flora to assess the status of rocky shores.

The analysis of large-scale turbulence characteristics in the Indonesian seas derived from a regional model based on the Princeton Ocean Model

Turbulence characteristics in the Indonesian seas on the horizontal scale of order of 100 km were calculated with a regional model of the Indonesian seas circulation in the area based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). As is well known, the POM incorporates the Mellor–Yamada turbulence closure scheme. The calculated characteristics are: twice the turbulence kinetic energy per unit mass, <i>q</i>²; the turbulence master scale, &ell;; mixing coefficients of momentum, <i>K</i>_M; and temperature and salinity, <i>K</i>_H; etc. The analyzed turbulence has been generated essentially by the shear of large-scale ocean currents and by the large-scale wind turbulence. We focused on the analysis of turbulence around important topographic features, such as the Lifamatola Sill, the North Sangihe Ridge, the Dewakang Sill, and the North and South Halmahera Sea Sills. In general, the structure of turbulence characteristics in these regions turned out to be similar. For this reason, we have carried out a detailed analysis of the Lifamatola Sill region because dynamically this region is very important and some estimates of mixing coefficients in this area are available. <br><br> Briefly, the main results are as follows. The distribution of <i>q</i>² is quite adequately reproduced by the model. To the north of the Lifamatola Sill (in the Maluku Sea) and to the south of the Sill (in the Seram Sea), large values of <i>q</i>² occur in the deep layer extending several hundred meters above the bottom. The observed increase of <i>q</i>² near the very bottom is probably due to the increase of velocity shear and the corresponding shear production of <i>q</i>² very close to the bottom. The turbulence master scale, &ell;, was found to be constant in the main depth of the ocean, while &ell; rapidly decreases close to the bottom, as one would expect. However, in deep profiles away from the sill, the effect of topography results in the &ell; structure being unreasonably complicated as one moves towards the bottom. Values of 15 to 20 × 10^&minus;4 m² s^-1 were obtained for <i>K</i>_M and <i>K</i>_H in deep water in the vicinity of the Lifamatola Sill. These estimates agree well with basin-scale averaged values of 13.3 × 10^&minus;4 m² s^-1 found diagnostically for <i>K</i>_H in the deep Banda and Seram Seas (Gordon et al., 2003) and a value of 9.0 × 10^&minus;4 m² s^-1 found diagnostically for <i>K</i>_H for the deep Banda Sea system (van Aken et al., 1988). The somewhat higher simulated values can be explained by the presence of steep topography around the sill.

Predicting IQ of biologically "at risk" children from age 3 to school entry:sensitivity and specificity of the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale IV

Predictive validity of the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale Fourth Edition (S-B IV) from age 3 years to ages 4-5 years was evaluated with biologically "at risk" children without major sensory or motor impairments (n = 236). Using the standard scoring, children with full scale IQ <or = 84 on the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence at age 4-5 years were poorly identified (sensitivity 54%) from the composite S-B IV score at age 3. However, sensitivity improved greatly to 78% by including as a predictor the number of subtests the child was actually able to perform at age 3 years. Measures from the Home Screening Questionnaire and ratings of mother-child interaction further improved sensitivity to 83%. The standard method for calculating the composite score on the S-B IV excludes subtests with a raw score of 0, which overestimates cognitive functioning in young biologically high risk children. Accuracy of early identification was improved significantly by considering the number of subtests the child did not perform at age 3 years.

The geographical structure of British bird distributions:diversity, spatial turnover and scale

1. Using data on the spatial distribution of the British avifauna, we address three basic questions about the spatial structure of assemblages: (i) Is there a relationship between species richness (alpha diversity) and spatial turnover of species (beta diversity)? (ii) Do high richness locations have fewer species in common with neighbouring areas than low richness locations?, and (iii) Are any such relationships contingent on spatial scale (resolution or quadrat area), and do they reflect the operation of a particular kind of species-area relationship (SAR)?

2. For all measures of spatial turnover, we found a negative relationship with species richness. This held across all scales, with the exception of turnover measured as beta (sim).

3. Higher richness areas were found to have more species in common with neighbouring areas.

4. The logarithmic SAR fitted better than the power SAR overall, and fitted significantly better in areas with low richness and high turnover.

5. Spatial patterns of both turnover and richness vary with scale. The finest scale richness pattern (10 km) and the coarse scale richness pattern (90 km) are statistically unrelated. The same is true of the turnover patterns.

6. With coarsening scale, locations of the most species-rich quadrats move north. This observed sensitivity of richness 'hotspot' location to spatial scale has implications for conservation biology, e.g. the location of a reserve selected on the basis of maximum richness may change considerably with reserve size or scale of analysis.

7. Average turnover measured using indices declined with coarsening scale, but the average number of species gained or lost between neighbouring quadrats was essentially scale invariant at 10-13 species, despite mean richness rising from 80 to 146 species (across an 81-fold area increase). We show that this kind of scale invariance is consistent with the logarithmic SAR.

Depressed mood and dietary fish intake: Direct relationship or indirect relationship as a result of diet and lifestyle?

Previous studies have suggested an association between depressed mood and the dietary intake of fish. In all cases, however, dietary fish intake has been considered at the exclusion of all other aspects of the diet. This analysis investigates associations between depressed mood and dietary fish intake, while also concurrently investigating intake of a number of other dietary components. The analysis is conducted on data from 10,602 men from Northern Ireland and France screened for inclusion into the PRIME cohort study. Depressed mood was assessed using a self-report questionnaire based on the Welsh Pure Depression sub-scale of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory, diet was assessed using a Food Frequency Questionnaire, and limited demographics were also measured. Using regression, depressed mood is initially inversely associated with dietary fish intake. On inclusion of all other dietary variables, the strength of this relationship reduces but remains, and significant associations with a number of other foods are also found. On additional inclusion of all demographic variables, the strength of the above relationships again reduces, and associations with various measures of socio-economic status and education are also significant. These findings suggest that depressed mood is associated with fish intake both directly, and indirectly as part of a diet that is associated with depression and as part of a lifestyle that is associated with depression. Additional support for these conclusions is also provided in the pattern of associations between depressed mood and diet in the two countries. The relative contributions of fish intake to depressed mood both directly and indirectly are yet to be determined. However, while diet is not measured and until lifestyle can be adequately measured, the potential roles of diet and lifestyle in the association between depressed mood and dietary fish intake should not be ignored.

How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies

This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth’s history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation ‘hotspots’, and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

An investigation of possible mechanisms of the water-gas shift reaction over a ZrO2-supported Pt catalyst

The present work investigates the reactivity of the surface species observable by in situ DRIFTS formed over a Pt/ZrO2 during the water-gas shift (WGS) reaction. A DRIFTS cell/mass spectrometer system was operated at the chemical steady state during isotopic transients to yield information about the true nature (i.e., main reaction intermediate or spectators) of adsorbates. Only carbonyl and formate species were observed by DRIFTS under reaction conditions; the surface coverage of carbonate species was negligible. Isotopic transient kinetic analyses revealed that formates exchanged uniformly according to a first-order law, suggesting that most formates observed by DRIFTS were of the same reactivity. In addition, the time scale of the exchange of the reaction product CO2 was significantly shorter than that of the surface formates. Therefore, a formate route based on the formates as detected by DRIFTS can be ruled out as the main reaction pathway in the present case. The number of precursors of the reaction product CO2 was smaller than the number of surface Pt atoms, suggesting that carbonyl species or some \