Size-selective fishing drives species composition in the Celtic Sea

Fishing alters community size structure by selectively removing larger individual fish and by changing the relative abundance of different-sized species. To assess the relative importance of individual-and species-level effects, two indices of fish community structure were compared, the relative abundance of large fish individuals (large fish indicator, LFI) and the relative abundance of large fish species (large species indicator, LSI). The two indices were strongly correlated for empirical data from the Celtic Sea and for data from simulated model communities, suggesting that much of the variability in the LFI is caused by shifts in the relative abundance of species (LSI). This correlation is explained by the observation that most of the biomass of a given species is spread over few length classes, a range spanning the factor 2 of individual length, such that most species contributed predominantly to either the small or the large component of the LFI. The results suggest that the effects of size-selective fishing in the Celtic Sea are mediated mainly through changes in community composition.

Why the size structure of marine communities can require decades to recover from fishing

A dynamic food-web model of more than 1000 species was used to quantify the recovery trajectory of marine community size-structure under different hypothetical fishing regimes, using the Northeast Atlantic as an example. Size-structure was summarised by four indicators: the Large Fish Indicator (LFI), the Large Species Indicator (LSI), the biomass-weighted mean maximum length of fish species (EMBED Equation.3) and the biomass-weighted mean maturation length of fish species (EMBED Equation.3). Time-series of these indicators recorded recovery following release from fishing with various size-selectivities, intensities and durations. In model simulations, fishing-induced trophic cascades were observed to distort fish community size-structure, but these did not have a large influence on recovery level or duration as measured by the four indicators. However, simulations showed that local extinctions of large fish species increased in number with both fishing intensity and duration, and could strongly limit the recovery level. Recovery of fish community size-structure to near equilibrium frequently took multiple decades in simulations; these long transient periods suggest that management interventions for size-structure recovery may require much longer than previously thought. Our results demonstrate the need for community-level modelling to set realistic targets for management of community size-structure.

The Eschatology of Global Warming in a Scottish Fishing Village

In Gamrie, an Aberdeenshire fishing village home to 700 people and six millennialist Protestant churches, global warming is more than just a 'hoax': it is a demonic conspiracy that threatens to bring about the ruin of the entire human race. Such a certainty was rendered intelligible to local Christians by viewing it through the lens of dispensationalist theology brought to the village by the Plymouth Brethren. In a play on Weberian notions of disenchantment, I argue that whereas Gamrie's Christians rejected global warming as a false eschatology, and environmentalism as a false salvationist religion, supporters of the climate change agenda viewed global warming as an apocalyptic reality and environmentalism as providing salvific redemption. Both rhetorics – each engaged in a search for 'signs of the end times' – are thus millenarian.

Stochastic Analysis of Saltwater Intrusion in Heterogeneous Aquifers using Local Average Subdivision

This study investigates the effects of ground heterogeneity, considering permeability as a random variable, on an intruding SW wedge using Monte Carlo simulations. Random permeability fields were generated, using the method of Local Average Subdivision (LAS), based on a lognormal probability density function. The LAS method allows the creation of spatially correlated random fields, generated using coefficients of variation (COV) and horizontal and vertical scales of fluctuation (SOF). The numerical modelling code SUTRA was employed to solve the coupled flow and transport problem. The well-defined 2D dispersive Henry problem was used as the test case for the method. The intruding SW wedge is defined by two key parameters, the toe penetration length (TL) and the width of mixing zone (WMZ). These parameters were compared to the results of a homogeneous case simulated using effective permeability values. The simulation results revealed: (1) an increase in COV resulted in a seaward movement of TL; (2) the WMZ extended with increasing COV; (3) a general increase in horizontal and vertical SOF produced a seaward movement of TL, with the WMZ increasing slightly; (4) as the anisotropic ratio increased the TL intruded further inland and the WMZ reduced in size. The results show that for large values of COV, effective permeability parameters are inadequate at reproducing the effects of heterogeneity on SW intrusion.

Experimental Investigation of Transient Saltwater Intrusion in Heterogeneous Porous Media

A 2D sandbox style experiment was developed to compare the results of numerical modelling to physical testing for saltwater intrusion in homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifers. The sandbox consisted of a thin central viewing chamber filled with glass beads of varying diameters (780μm, 1090μm and 1325μm) under fully saturated conditions. Dyed saltwater (SW) was introduced at the side boundary and a head difference imposed across the porous media. Images of the SW wedge were recorded at intervals in order to assess the suitability of the numerical models predictions of transient SW intrusion. Numerical modelling of the experimental cases were simulated using SUTRA. Two main parameters were chosen to express the condition of the intruding SW wedge at each recorded time step; the toe penetration length (TL) and the width of the mixing zone (WMZ). The WMZ was larger under transient conditions in the heterogeneous case, while the TL was longer for the homogeneous case. The increased variability in the flow field fo the heterogeneous case resulted in increased dispersion, and thus, increased WMZ.