Root Cause Analysis by a Combined Sparse Classification and Monte Carlo Approach

Classification methods with embedded feature selection capability are very appealing for the analysis of complex processes since they allow the analysis of root causes even when the number of input variables is high. In this work, we investigate the performance of three techniques for classification within a Monte Carlo strategy with the aim of root cause analysis. We consider the naive bayes classifier and the logistic regression model with two different implementations for controlling model complexity, namely, a LASSO-like implementation with a L1 norm regularization and a fully Bayesian implementation of the logistic model, the so called relevance vector machine. Several challenges can arise when estimating such models mainly linked to the characteristics of the data: a large number of input variables, high correlation among subsets of variables, the situation where the number of variables is higher than the number of available data points and the case of unbalanced datasets. Using an ecological and a semiconductor manufacturing dataset, we show advantages and drawbacks of each method, highlighting the superior performance in term of classification accuracy for the relevance vector machine with respect to the other classifiers. Moreover, we show how the combination of the proposed techniques and the Monte Carlo approach can be used to get more robust insights into the problem under analysis when faced with challenging modelling conditions.

Fault Diagnosis in Internal Combustion Engines Using Nonlinear Multivariate Statistics

This paper presents a statistical-based fault diagnosis scheme for application to internal combustion engines. The scheme relies on an identified model that describes the relationships between a set of recorded engine variables using principal component analysis (PCA). Since combustion cycles are complex in nature and produce nonlinear relationships between the recorded engine variables, the paper proposes the use of nonlinear PCA (NLPCA). The paper further justifies the use of NLPCA by comparing the model accuracy of the NLPCA model with that of a linear PCA model. A new nonlinear variable reconstruction algorithm and bivariate scatter plots are proposed for fault isolation, following the application of NLPCA. The proposed technique allows the diagnosis of different fault types under steady-state operating conditions. More precisely, nonlinear variable reconstruction can remove the fault signature from the recorded engine data, which allows the identification and isolation of the root cause of abnormal engine behaviour. The paper shows that this can lead to (i) an enhanced identification of potential root causes of abnormal events and (ii) the masking of faulty sensor readings. The effectiveness of the enhanced NLPCA based monitoring scheme is illustrated by its application to a sensor fault and a process fault. The sensor fault relates to a drift in the fuel flow reading, whilst the process fault relates to a partial blockage of the intercooler. These faults are introduced to a Volkswagen TDI 1.9 Litre diesel engine mounted on an experimental engine test bench facility.

Molecular dynamics simulation model for the quantitative assessment of tool wear during single point diamond turning of cubic silicon carbide

Silicon carbide (SiC) is a material of great technological interest for engineering applications concerning hostile environments where silicon-based components cannot work (beyond 623 K). Single point diamond turning (SPDT) has remained a superior and viable method to harness process efficiency and freeform shapes on this harder material. However, it is extremely difficult to machine this ceramic consistently in the ductile regime due to sudden and rapid tool wear. It thus becomes non trivial to develop an accurate understanding of tool wear mechanism during SPDT of SiC in order to identify measures to suppress wear to minimize operational cost.

In this paper, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation has been deployed with a realistic analytical bond order potential (ABOP) formalism based potential energy function to understand tool wear mechanism during single point diamond turning of SiC. The most significant result was obtained using the radial distribution function which suggests graphitization of diamond tool during the machining process. This phenomenon occurs due to the abrasive processes between these two ultra hard materials. The abrasive action results in locally high temperature which compounds with the massive cutting forces leading to sp3–sp2 order–disorder transition of diamond tool. This represents the root cause of tool wear during SPDT operation of cubic SiC. Further testing led to the development of a novel method for quantitative assessment of the progression of diamond tool wear from MD simulations.

Stable isotope probing analysis of the influence of liming on root exudate utilization by soil microorganisms

Rhizosphere microorganisms play an important role in soil carbon flow, through turnover of root exudates, but there is little information on which organisms are actively involved or on the influence of environmental conditions on active communities. In this study, a (CO2)-C-13 pulse labelling field experiment was performed in an upland grassland soil, followed by RNA-stable isotope probing (SIP) analysis, to determine the effect of liming on the structure of the rhizosphere microbial community metabolizing root exudates. The lower limit of detection for SIP was determined in soil samples inoculated with a range of concentrations of C-13-labelled Pseudomonas fluorescens and was found to lie between 10(5) and 10(6) cells per gram of soil. The technique was capable of detecting microbial communities actively assimilating root exudates derived from recent photo-assimilate in the field. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) profiles of bacteria, archaea and fungi derived from fractions obtained from caesium trifluoroacetate (CsTFA) density gradient ultracentrifugation indicated that active communities in limed soils were more complex than those in unlimed soils and were more active in utilization of recently exuded C-13 compounds. In limed soils, the majority of the community detected by standard RNA-DGGE analysis appeared to be utilizing root exudates. In unlimed soils, DGGE profiles from C-12 and C-13 RNA fractions differed, suggesting that a proportion of the active community was utilizing other sources of organic carbon. These differences may reflect differences in the amount of root exudation under the different conditions.

Analysis of Extended Partial Least Squares for Monitoring Large-Scale Processes

This paper theoretically analysis the recently proposed "Extended Partial Least Squares" (EPLS) algorithm. After pointing out some conceptual deficiencies, a revised algorithm is introduced that covers the middle ground between Partial Least Squares and Principal Component Analysis. It maximises a covariance criterion between a cause and an effect variable set (partial least squares) and allows a complete reconstruction of the recorded data (principal component analysis). The new and conceptually simpler EPLS algorithm has successfully been applied in detecting and diagnosing various fault conditions, where the original EPLS algorithm did only offer fault detection.

Quaternary pollen analysis: recent progress in palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology

During the last decade Quaternary pollen analysis has developed towards improved pollen-taxonomical precision, automated pollen identification and more rigorous definition of pollen assemblage zones. There have been significant efforts to model the spatial representation of pollen records in lake sediments which is important for more precise interpretation of the pollen records in terms of past vegetation patterns. We review the difficulties in matching modelled post-glacial plant migration patterns with pollen-based palaeorecords and discuss the potential of DNA analysis of pollen to investigate the ancestry and past migration pathways of the plants. In population ecology there has been an acceleration of the widely advocated conceptual advance of pollen-analytical research from vaguely defined ‘environmental reconstructions’ towards investigating more precisely defined ecological problems aligned with the current ecological theories. Examples of such research have included an increasing number of investigations about the ecological impacts of past disturbances, often integrating pollen records with other palaeoecological data. Such an approach has also been applied to incorporate a time perspective to the questions of ecosystem restoration, nature conservation and forest management. New lines of research are the use of pollen analysis to study long-term patterns of vegetation diversity, such as the role of glacial-age vegetation fragmentation as a cause of Amazonian rain forest diversity, and to investigate links between pollen richness and past plant diversity. Palaeoclimatological use of pollen records has become more quantitative and has included more precise and rigorous testing of pollen-climate calibration models with modern climate data. These tests show the approximate nature of the models and warn against a too straightforward climatic interpretation of the small-scale variation in reconstructions. Pollenbased climate reconstructions over the Late Glacial–early Holocene boundary have indicated that pollen-stratigraphical changes have been rapid with no evidence for response lags. This does not rule out the possibility of migrational disequilibrium, however, as the rapid changes may be mostly due to nonmigrational responses of existing vegetation. It is therefore difficult to assess whether the amplitude of reconstructed climate change reflects real climate change. Other outstanding problems remain the obscure relationship of pollen production and climate, the role of human impact and other nonclimatic factors, and nonanalogue situations.

Twisting flux tubes as a cause of micro-flaring activity

High-cadence optical observations of an H-alpha blue-wing bright point near solar AR NOAA 10794 are presented. The data were obtained with the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak using a newly developed camera system, the RAPID DUAL IMAGER. Wavelet analysis is undertaken to search for intensity-related oscillatory signatures, and periodicities ranging from 15 to 370 s are found with significance levels exceeding 95%. During two separate microflaring events, oscillation sites surrounding the bright point are observed to twist. We relate the twisting of the oscillation sites to the twisting of physical flux tubes, thus giving rise to reconnection phenomena. We derive an average twist velocity of 8.1 km s(-1) and detect a peak in the emitted flux between twist angles of 180 degrees and 230 degrees.

Density-viscosity product of small-volume ionic liquid samples using quartz crystal impedance analysis

Quartz crystal impedance analysis has been developed as a technique to assess whether room-temperature ionic liquids are Newtonian fluids and as a small-volume method for determining the values of their viscosity-density product, rho eta. Changes in the impedance spectrum of a 5-MHz fundamental frequency quartz crystal induced by a water-miscible room-temperature ionic liquid, 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium. trifluoromethylsulfonate ([C(4)mim][OTf]), were measured. From coupled frequency shift and bandwidth changes as the concentration was varied from 0 to 100% ionic liquid, it was determined that this liquid provided a Newtonian response. A second water-immiscible ionic liquid, 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide [C(4)mim][NTf2], with concentration varied using methanol, was tested and also found to provide a Newtonian response. In both cases, the values of the square root of the viscosity-density product deduced from the small-volume quartz crystal technique were consistent with those measured using a viscometer and density meter. The third harmonic of the crystal was found to provide the closest agreement between the two measurement methods; the pure ionic liquids had the largest difference of similar to 10%. In addition, 18 pure ionic liquids were tested, and for 11 of these, good-quality frequency shift and bandwidth data were obtained; these 12 all had a Newtonian response. The frequency shift of the third harmonic was found to vary linearly with square root of viscosity-density product of the pure ionic liquids up to a value of root(rho eta) approximate to 18 kg m(-2) s(-1/2), but with a slope 10% smaller than that predicted by the Kanazawa and Gordon equation. It is envisaged that the quartz crystal technique could be used in a high-throughput microfluidic system for characterizing ionic liquids.

Genetic analysis of coronary artery disease single nucleotide polymorphisms in diabetic nephropathy

Background. Diabetic nephropathy is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease. Premature mortality is common in patients with nephropathy, largely due to cardiovascular disease. Genetic variants implicated in macrovascular disease are therefore excellent candidates to assess for association with diabetic nephropathy. Recent genome-wide association studies have identified a total of 15 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are reproducibly associated with cardiovascular disease.

Methods. We initially assessed these SNPs for association in UK type 1 diabetic patients with (cases; n = 597) and without (controls; n = 502) nephropathy using iPLEXTM and TaqMan® assays. Replication studies were performed with DNA genotyped in a total of 2668 individuals from the British Isles.

Results. One SNP (rs4420638) on chromosome 19q13 was found to be significantly associated with diabetic nephropathy before (P = 0.0002) and after correction for multiple testing (Pcorrected = 0.002). We replicated this finding in a phenotypically similar case–control collection comprising 709 individuals with type 1 diabetes (P = 0.002; combined P < 0.00001; OR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.29–1.84).

Conclusions. Our case–control data suggest that rs4420638, or a functional SNP in linkage disequilibrium with this SNP, may be associated with diabetic nephropathy.

Homocysteine, Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase C677T Polymorphism, and Risk of Retnal Vein Occlusion: A Meta-analysis

Objective: To assess the role of plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations and homozygosity for the thermolabile variant of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T gene as risk factors for retinal vascular occlusive disease.

Design: Retinal vein occlusion (RVO) is an important cause of vision loss. Early meta-analyses showed that tHcy was associated with an increased risk of RVO, but a significant number of new studies have been published. Participants and/or Controls: RVO patients and controls.

Methods: Data sources included MEDLINE, Web of Science, and PubMed searches and searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. Reviewers searched the databases, selected the studies, and then extracted data. Results were pooled quantitatively using meta-analytic methods.

Main Outcome Measures: tHcy concentrations and MTHFR genotype.

Results: There were 25 case-control studies for tHcy (1533 cases and 1708 controls) and 18 case-control studies for MTHFR (1082 cases and 4706 controls). The mean tHcy was on average 2.8 mol/L (95% confidence
interval [CI], 1.8 –3.7) greater in the RVO cases compared with controls, but there was evidence of between-study heterogeneity (P0.001, I2 93%). There was funnel plot asymmetry suggesting publication bias. There was no evidence of association between homozygosity for the MTHFR C677T genotype and RVO (odds ratio [OR] 1.20; 95% CI, 0.84–1.71), but again marked heterogeneity (P 0.004, I2 53%) was observed.

Conclusions: There was some evidence that elevated tHcy was associated with RVO, but not homozygosity for the MTHFR C677T genotype. Both analyses should be interpreted cautiously because of marked heterogeneity between the study estimates and possible effect of publication bias on the tHcy findings.

Financial Disclosure(s): The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Biological influence on the morphology and micromorphology of selected Podzols (Spodosols) and Cambisols (Inceptisols) from the Eastern United States and Northeast Scotland

Biological activities greatly influence the formation of many soils, especially forest soils under cool humid climates. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of vegetation and soil biota on the formation of selected soils. Field morphology, micromorphology, and carbon and organic matter analysis were determined on six Podzols (Spodosols) and two Cambisols (Inceptisols) from the eastern United States and north-east Scotland. Humification of plant material by soil fauna and fungi occurs in all organic horizons. Thick organic coatings are observed on soil peds and rock fragments from the E1 to the Bs horizon in a Haplic Podzol from Clingmans Dome Mt., TN. Thin sections reveal large accumulations of root material in different stages of decomposition in the spodic horizons of a Haplic Podzol from Whiteface Mt., NY. Organic carbon ranges from 5.4 to 8.5% in the spodic B horizons of the Whiteface Mt. Podzol. Earthworms and enchytraeids have a great effect on the structure of the surface and subsurface horizons in the Dystric Cambisols from Huntly and Clashindarroch Forests, Scotland and a Cambic Podzol from the Corrie Burn Basin, Scotland. Podzols from Speymouth Forest, Scotland (Gleyic Podzol), Cling-mans Dome Mt., and Whiteface Mt. have thick organic horizons. The Podzols from the Flatwoods in Georgia, the Pine Barrens in New Jersey, the Corrie Burn Basin, and the Cambisol from Huntly Forest have only A horizons at the surface. The Clashindarroch Forest soil has a very thin organic horizon. Warm and humid climates and sandy parent material are responsible for thick E horizons and lack of thick organic horizons in the Flatwoods (Carbic Podzol) and Pine Barrens (Ferric Podzol) soils. Earthworms and enchytraeids thrive in the Corrie Burn Basin and Huntly Forest soils due to the vegetation and the highly weathered basic parent material. The site at Clashindarroch once carried oak, and then birch forest, both of which produce a mild litter and also encourage earthworm and enchytraeids. This fauna is responsible for much mixing of the topsoil. The present conifer vegetation will eventually produce a deep litter and cause podzolization.

Accuracy of Death Certificates in COPD: Analysis from the TORCH Trial

The Towards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) trial was an international clinical trial of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients where cause of death was assigned by an independent committee. Comparison of death certificate data and adjudicated cause of death allows a unique opportunity to determine death certificate accuracy and frequency of COPD listing on death certificates of COPD patients. In this analysis, the authors determine the concordance between adjudicated cause of death and primary and secondary cause of death from death certificates. In 317 (80%) of informative deaths, the primary or secondary cause of death from certificates agreed with adjudicated cause of death. Only 229 (58%) of death certificates in these COPD patients listed COPD on the certificate. COPD was not listed on the death certificate in 21% of deaths adjudicated to be caused by COPD exacerbation. Compared with pulmonary causes, the listing of COPD on certificates occurred with less frequency than cardiovascular, cancer and other categories of death. The combined primary and secondary listing on death certificates has good concordance with actual cause of death. COPD is under-reported on death certificates, and this under-reporting is more frequent when the primary cause of death is not pulmonary.