Cardiovascular disease and hypertension are strong risk factors for choroidal neovascularization.

Purpose: To investigate the association of cardiovascular risk factors and inflammatory markers with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Design: Cross-sectional case-control study. Participants: Of the 410 of the =65-year-old community sample invited to attend, 205 participated (50% response rate). Of the 215 clinic attendees who were invited to participate, 212 agreed to take part (98% response rate). A diagnosis of neovascular AMD in at least one eye was made in 193 clinic attendees and 2 of the community sample. Methods: Clinic and community participants underwent a detailed ophthalmic examination with fundus imaging, were interviewed for assessment of putative risk factors, and provided a blood sample. Analysis included levels of serum lipids, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM), vascular cellular adhesion molecule (VCAM), and C-reactive protein (CRP). All participants were classified by fundus image grading on the basis of the eye with more severe AMD features. Main Outcome Measure: Neovascular AMD. Results: There were 195 participants with choroidal neovascularization in at least one eye, 97 nonneovascular AMD participants, and 115 controls (no drusen or pigmentary irregularities in either eye). In confounder-adjusted logistic regression, a history of cardiovascular disease was strongly associated with neovascular AMD (odds ratio [OR], 7.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.78-20.41). Cigarette smoking (OR, 3.71; 95% CI, 1.25-11.06), being in the highest quartile of body mass index (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.22-12.01), stage 2 hypertension (OR, 3.21; 95% CI, 1.14-8.98), and being in the highest quartile of serum cholesterol (OR, 4.66; 95% CI, 1.35-16.13) were positively associated with neovascular AMD. There was no association between AMD status and serum CRP, ICAM, or VCAM. Conclusions: Our results suggest that cardiovascular disease plays an etiological role in the development of choroidal neovascularization in a proportion of older adults and highlight the importance of control of blood pressure and cholesterol, avoidance of smoking, and maintenance of a normal body weight. © 2008 American Academy of Ophthalmology.

Exposure to oral bisphosphonates and risk of esophageal cancer

Context: Use of oral bisphosphonates has increased dramatically in the United States and elsewhere. Esophagitis is a known adverse effect of bisphosphonate use, and recent reports suggest a link between bisphosphonate use and esophageal cancer, but this has not been robustly investigated.
Objective: To investigate the association between bisphosphonate use and esophageal cancer.
Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were extracted from the UK General Practice Research Database to compare the incidence of esophageal and gastric cancer in a cohort of patients treated with oral bisphosphonates between January 1996 and December 2006 with incidence in a control cohort. Cancers were identified from relevant Read/Oxford Medical Information System codes in the patient's clinical files. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in bisphosphonate users compared with nonusers, with adjustment for potential confounders.
Main Outcome Measure: Hazard ratio for the risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the bisphosphonate users compared with the bisphosphonate nonusers. Results: Mean follow-up time was 4.5 and 4.4 years in the bisphosphonate and control cohorts, respectively. Excluding patients with less than 6 months' follow-up, there were 41 826 members in each cohort (81% women; mean age, 70.0 (SD, 11.4) years). One hundred sixteen esophageal or gastric cancers (79 esophageal) occurred in the bisphosphonate cohort and 115 (72 esophageal) in the control cohort. The incidence of esophageal and gastric cancer combined was 0.7 per 1000 person-years of risk in both the bisphosphonate and control cohorts; the incidence of esophageal cancer alone in the bisphosphonate and control cohorts was 0.48 and 0.44 per 1000 person-years of risk, respectively. There was no difference in risk of esophageal and gastric cancer combined between the cohorts for any bisphosphonate use (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.96 [95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.25]) or risk of esophageal cancer only (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.49]). There also was no difference in risk of esophageal or gastric cancer by duration of bisphosphonate intake.
Conclusion: Among patients in the UK General Practice Research Database, the use of oral bisphosphonates was not significantly associated with incident esophageal or gastric cancer.

Interbirth interval is associated with childhood type 1 diabetes risk

Short interbirth interval has been associated with maternal complications and childhood autism and leukemia, possibly due to deficiencies in maternal micronutrients at conception or increased exposure to sibling infections. A possible association between interbirth interval and subsequent risk of childhood type 1 diabetes has not been investigated. A secondary analysis of 14 published observational studies of perinatal risk factors for type 1 diabetes was conducted. Risk estimates of diabetes by category of interbirth interval were calculated for each study. Random effects models were used to calculate pooled odds ratios (ORs) and investigate heterogeneity between studies. Overall, 2,787 children with type 1 diabetes were included. There was a reduction in the risk of childhood type 1 diabetes in children born to mothers after interbirth intervals <3 years compared with longer interbirth intervals (OR 0.82 [95% CI 0.72-0.93]). Adjustments for various potential confounders little altered this estimate. In conclusion, there was evidence of a 20% reduction in the risk of childhood diabetes in children born to mothers after interbirth intervals <3 years.

Risk factors, DNA damage, and disease progression in Barrett's esophagus

Esophageal adenocarcinoma develops on a background of Barrett's esophagus. A number of risk factors have been linked to both conditions, including gastroesophageal reflux and smoking. However, the molecular mechanisms by which these factors influence disease progression remain unclear. One possibility is that risk factors generate promutagenic DNA damage in the esophagus. The comet assay was used to measure DNA damage in esophageal (Barrett's and squamous) and gastric mucosa of Barrett's patients with (n = 24) or without (n = 50) associated adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia in comparison with control patients (squamous mucosa) without Barrett's esophagus (n = 64). Patients completed a questionnaire detailing exposure to some of the known risk factors for Barrett's esophagus and adenocarcinoma. In Barrett's esophagus patients, DNA damage was higher in Barrett's mucosa compared with normal esophageal and gastric mucosa (P < 0.001). In addition, the highest quartile of DNA damage in Barrett's mucosa was associated with an increased risk (odds ratio, 9.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-83.4; P = 0.044) of developing adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia compared with DNA damage levels in the lowest quartile. Smoking was associated with higher DNA damage in squamous epithelium in all patient groups (P < 0.01) and in Barrett's mucosa (P < 0.05) in Barrett's esophagus patients only. In controls only, current reflux was associated with higher DNA damage, whereas anti-inflammatory drug use resulted in lower levels. Collectively, these data imply a genotoxic insult to the premalignaint Barrett's mucosa that may explain the genetic instability in this tissue and the progression to adenocarcinoma. There is an indication for a role for smoking in inducing DNA damage in esophageal mucosa but an understanding of the role of reflux requires further investigation.

Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

Objectives: To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses. Design: Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination. Setting: Northern Ireland. Main outcome measure: Intensity of use of inpatient services. Results: After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.

Cyclooxygenase-2 and inducible nitric oxide synthase gene polymorphisms and risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett's Esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has increased in recent years, and Barrett's esophagus is a recognized risk factor. Gastroesophageal reflux of acid and/or bile is linked to these conditions and to reflux esophagitis. Inflammatory disorders can lead to carcinogenesis through activation of "prosurvival genes," including cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS). Increased expression of these enzymes has been found in esophageal adenocarcinoma, Barrett's esophagus, and reflux esophagitis. Polymorphic variants in COX-2 and iNOS genes may be modifiers of risk of these conditions. In a population-based case-control study, we examined associations of the COX-2 8473 T>C and iNOS Ser 608 Leu (C>T) polymorphisms with risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma, Barrett's esophagus, and reflux esophagitis. Genomic DNA was extracted from blood samples collected from cases of esophageal adenocarcinoma (n = 210), Barrett's esophagus (n = 212), and reflux esophagitis (n = 230) and normal population controls frequency matched for age and sex (n = 248). Polymorphisms were genotyped using TaqMan allelic discrimination assays. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained from logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounding factors. The presence of at least one COX-2 8473 C allele was associated with a significantly increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (adjusted odds ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.40). There was no significant association between this polymorphism and risk of Barrett's esophagus or reflux esophagitis or between the iNOS Ser 608 Leu polymorphism and risk of these esophageal conditions. Our study suggests that the COX-2 8473 C allele is a potential genetic marker for susceptibility to esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Risk assessment of E-Commerce projects using evidential reasoning

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risks in E-Commerce (EC) projects. Competitive software businesses have the critical task of assessing the risk in the software system development life cycle. This can be conducted on the basis of conventional probabilities, but limited appropriate information is available and so a complete set of probabilities is not available. In such problems, where the analysis is highly subjective and related to vague, incomplete, uncertain or inexact information, the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence offers a potential advantage. We use a direct way of reasoning in a single step (i.e., extended DS theory) to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risk in EC projects. This consists of five stages 1) establishing knowledge base and setting rule strengths, 2) collecting evidence and data, 3) determining evidence and rule strength to a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of a single step reasoning process, 4) combining prior mass and different rules; i.e., the second half of the single step reasoning process, 5) finally, evaluating the belief interval for the best support decision of EC project. We test the system by using potential risk factors associated with EC development and the results indicate that the system is promising way of assisting an EC project manager in identifying potential risk factors and the corresponding project risks.

Analysing orchestrations with risk profiles and angel-daemon games

In this paper game theory is used to analyse the effect of a number of service failures during the execution of a grid orchestration. A service failure may be catastrophic in that it causes an entire orchestration to fail. Alternatively, a grid manager may utilise alternative services in the case of failure, allowing an orchestration to recover, A risk profile provides a means of modelling situations in a way that is neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic. Risk profiles are analysed using angel and daemon games. A risk profile can be assigned a valuation through an analysis of the structure of its associated Nash equilibria. Some structural properties of valuation functions, that show their validity as a measure for risk, are given. Two main cases are considered, the assessment of Orc expressions and the arrangement of a meeting using reputations.

Further assessment of the complement component 2 and factor B region associated with age-related macular degeneration

PURPOSE. Polymorphic variation in genes involved in regulation of the complement system has been implicated as a major cause of genetic risk, in addition to the LOC387715/HTRA1 locus and other environmental influences. Previous studies have identified polymorphisms in the complement component 2 (CC2) and factor B (CFB) genes, as potential functional variants associated with AMD, in particular CFB R32Q and CC2 rs547154, both of which share strong linkage disequilibrium (LD). METHODS. Data derived from the HapMap Project were used to select 18 haplotype-tagging SNPs across the extended CC2/ CFB region for genotyping, to measure the strength of LD in 318 patients with neovascular AMD and 243 age-matched control subjects to identify additional potential functional variants in addition to those originally reported. RESULTS. Strong LD was measured across this region as far as the superkiller viralicidic activity 2-like gene (SKIV2L). Nine SNPs were identified to be significantly associated with the genetic effect observed at this locus. Of these, a nonsynonymous coding variant SKIV2L R151Q (rs438999; OR, 0.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31- 0.74; P < 0.001), was in strong LD with CFB R32Q, rs641153 (r2 = 0.95) and may exert a functional effect. When assessed within a logistic regression model measuring the effects of genetic variation at the CFH and LOC387715/HTRA1 loci and smoking, the effect remained significant (OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.22- 0.65; P < 0.001). Additional variation identified within this region may also confer a weaker but independent effect and implicate additional genes within the pathogenesis of AMD. CONCLUSIONS. Because of the high level of LD within the extended CC2/CFB region, variation within SKIV2L may exert a functional effect in AMD. Copyright © Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology.

Is hyperfiltration associated with the future risk of developing diabetic nephropathy? A meta-analysis.

Aims/hypothesis Glomerular hyperfiltration is a well established phenomenon occurring early in some patients with type 1 diabetes. However, there is no consistent answer regarding whether hyperfiltration predicts later development of nephropathy. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies that compared the risk of developing diabetic nephropathy in patients with and without glomerular hyperfiltration and also explored the impact of baseline GFR.

Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out. Cohort studies in type 1 diabetic participants were included if they contained data on the development of incipient or overt nephropathy with baseline measurement
of GFR and presence or absence of hyperfiltration.

Results We included ten cohort studies following 780 patients. After a study median follow-up of 11.2 years, 130 patients had developed nephropathy. Using a random effects model, the pooled odds of progression to a minimum
of microalbuminuria in patients with hyperfiltration was 2.71 (95% CI 1.20–6.11) times that of patients with normofiltration. There was moderate heterogeneity (heterogeneity test p=0.05, measure of degree of inconsistency=48%) and some evidence of funnel plot asymmetry, possibly due to publication bias. The pooled weighted mean difference in baseline GFR was 13.8 ml min-1 1.73 m-2 (95% CI 5.0–22.7) greater in the group progressing to nephropathy than in those not progressing (heterogeneity test p<0.01).

Conclusions/interpretation In published studies, individuals with glomerular hyperfiltration were at increased risk of progression to diabetic nephropathy using study level data. Further larger studies are required to explore this relationship and the role of potential confounding variables.

Homocysteine, Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase C677T Polymorphism, and Risk of Retnal Vein Occlusion: A Meta-analysis

Objective: To assess the role of plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations and homozygosity for the thermolabile variant of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T gene as risk factors for retinal vascular occlusive disease.

Design: Retinal vein occlusion (RVO) is an important cause of vision loss. Early meta-analyses showed that tHcy was associated with an increased risk of RVO, but a significant number of new studies have been published. Participants and/or Controls: RVO patients and controls.

Methods: Data sources included MEDLINE, Web of Science, and PubMed searches and searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. Reviewers searched the databases, selected the studies, and then extracted data. Results were pooled quantitatively using meta-analytic methods.

Main Outcome Measures: tHcy concentrations and MTHFR genotype.

Results: There were 25 case-control studies for tHcy (1533 cases and 1708 controls) and 18 case-control studies for MTHFR (1082 cases and 4706 controls). The mean tHcy was on average 2.8 mol/L (95% confidence
interval [CI], 1.8 –3.7) greater in the RVO cases compared with controls, but there was evidence of between-study heterogeneity (P0.001, I2 93%). There was funnel plot asymmetry suggesting publication bias. There was no evidence of association between homozygosity for the MTHFR C677T genotype and RVO (odds ratio [OR] 1.20; 95% CI, 0.84–1.71), but again marked heterogeneity (P 0.004, I2 53%) was observed.

Conclusions: There was some evidence that elevated tHcy was associated with RVO, but not homozygosity for the MTHFR C677T genotype. Both analyses should be interpreted cautiously because of marked heterogeneity between the study estimates and possible effect of publication bias on the tHcy findings.

Financial Disclosure(s): The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Spatial attentional bias as a marker of genetic risk, symptom severity, and stimulant response in ADHD

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a heritable childhood onset disorder that is marked by variability at multiple levels including clinical presentation, cognitive profile, and response to stimulant medications. It has been suggested that this variability may reflect etiological differences, particularly, at the level of underlying genetics. This study examined whether an attentional phenotype-spatial attentional bias could serve as a marker of symptom severity, genetic risk, and stimulant response in ADHD. A total of 96 children and adolescents with ADHD were assessed on the Landmark Task, which is a sensitive measure of spatial attentional bias. All children were genotyped for polymorphisms (30 untranslated (UTR) and intron 8 variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs)) of the dopamine transporter gene (DAT1). Spatial attentional bias correlated with ADHD symptom levels and varied according to DAT1 genotype. Children who were homozygous for the 10-repeat allele of the DAT1 30-UTR VNTR displayed a rightward attentional bias and had higher symptom levels compared to those with the low-risk genotype. A total of 26 of these children who were medication naive performed the Landmark Task at baseline and then again after 6 weeks of stimulant medication. Left-sided inattention (rightward bias) at baseline was associated with an enhanced response to stimulants at 6 weeks. Moreover, changes in spatial bias with stimulant medications, varied as a function of DAT1 genotype. This study suggests an attentional phenotype that relates to symptom severity and genetic risk for ADHD, and may have utility in predicting stimulant response in ADHD.

BELFAST centenarians: A Case of Optimal Cardiovascular Risk?

Introduction: Centenarians are reservoirs of genetic and environmental information to successful ageing and local centenarian groups may help us to understand some of the factors that contribute to longevity. The current centenarian cohort in Belfast survived the 1970s epidemic of death from coronary heart disease in Northern Ireland, where cardiovascular mortality was almost highest in the world. These centenarians provided an opportunity to assess biological and genetic factors important in cardiovascular risk and ageing. Methods: Thirty-five (27 female, 8 male) centenarians, participants of the Belfast Elderly Longitudinal Free-living Ageing STudy (BELFAST), were community-living and of good cognition at enrolment. Results: Centenarians showed median Body Mass Index (BMI) at 25.7, systolic blood pressure 140mmHg and diastolic blood pressure 90mmHg, and fasting glucose of 5.54 mmol/l with no sex-related difference. Lipoproteins showed median cholesterol 5.3, High Density Lipoprotein (HDL) 1.10 and Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL) 3.47umol/l respectively. Centenarian smokers showed no different blood pressure or lipid measurements compared with non-smokers. Malondialdehyde, a measure of lipid peroxidation, was low at 1.19 umol/l, and measures of antioxidant status were varied. Male centenarians did not carry any of the vascular risk genotypes studied-ApoE4 for Apolipoprotein E (ApoE), DD for Angiotensinogen Converting Enzyme (ACE) and tt for 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTFHR), though this was not true for female centenarians.. Conclusions: This small local study shows that Belfast centenarians carry a reasonably favourable risk profile, except for age, with respect to cardiovascular disease. There is also some evidence that vascular risk factors and genotypes may be tolerated differently between the male and female centenarians. Maintaining a favourable cardiovascular risk profile seems likely to improve the chance of becoming a centenarian, especially for males.

House value as an indicator of cumulative wealth is strongly related to morbidity and mortality risk in older people: a census-based cross-sectional and longitudinal study

Background: There has been relatively little research into health inequalities in older populations. This may be partly explained by the difficulty in identifying appropriate indicators of socio-economic status for older people. Ideally, indicators of socio-economic status to be used in studies of health inequalities in older populations should incorporate some measure of life-time socio-economic standing, and house value may fill this role. This study examined whether an indicator of accumulated wealth based on a combination of housing tenure and house value was a strong predictor of ill-health in older populations.
Methods: A total of 191 848 people aged =65 years and not living in communal establishments were identified from the 2001 Northern Ireland Census and followed for 5 years. Self-reported health and mortality risk by housing tenure/house value groupings were examined while controlling for a range of other demographic and socio-economic characteristics.
Results: Housing tenure/house value was highly correlated with other indicators of socio-economic status. Public-sector renters had worse self-reported health and higher mortality rates than owner occupiers but significant gradients were also found between those living in the highest-and lowest-valued owner-occupier properties. The relationship between housing tenure and value was unchanged by adjustment for indicators of social support and quality of the physical environment. Adjustment for limiting long-term illness and self-reported health at baseline narrowed but did not eliminate the health gains associated with living in more expensive housing.
Conclusions: House value of residence is an accessible and powerful indicator of accumulated wealth that is highly correlated with current health status and predictive of future mortality risk in older populations.

Can physical activity modulate pancreatic cancer risk?:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Numerous epidemiological studies have examined the association between physical activity and pancreatic cancer; however, findings from individual cohorts have largely not corroborated a protective effect. Among other plausible mechanisms, physical activity may reduce abdominal fat depots inducing metabolic improvements in glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity, thereby potentially attenuating pancreatic cancer risk. We performed a systematic review to examine associations between physical activity and pancreatic cancer. Six electronic databases were searched from their inception through July 2009, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, seeking observational studies examining any physical activity measure with pancreatic cancer incidence/mortality as an outcome. A random effects model was used to pool individual effect estimates evaluating highest vs. lowest categories of activity. Twenty-eight studies were included. Pooled estimates indicated a reduction in pancreatic cancer risk with higher levels of total (five prospective studies, RR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.52-0.99) and occupational activity (four prospective studies, RR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.59-0.96). Nonsignificant inverse associations were seen between risks and recreational and transport physical activity. When examining exercise intensity, moderate activity appeared more protective (RR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.52-1.20) than vigorous activity (RR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.85-1.11), but results were not statistically significant and the former activity variable incorporated marked heterogeneity. Despite indications of an inverse relationship with higher levels of work and total activity, there was little evidence of such associations with recreational and other activity exposures.