Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

Objectives: To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses. Design: Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination. Setting: Northern Ireland. Main outcome measure: Intensity of use of inpatient services. Results: After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.

UK consensus project on quality in palliative day services: developing a quality indicator set using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method

Introduction
Evaluating quality of palliative day services is essential for assessing care across diverse settings, and for monitoring quality improvement approaches.

Aim
To develop a set of quality indicators for assessment of all aspects (structure, process and outcome) of care in palliative day services.

Methods
Using a modified version of the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method (Fitch et al., 2001), a multidisciplinary panel of 16 experts independently completed a survey rating the appropriateness of 182 potential quality indicators previously identified during a systematic evidence review. Panel members then attended a one day, face-to-face meeting where indicators were discussed and subsequently re-rated. Panel members were also asked to rate the feasibility and necessity of measuring each indicator.

Results
71 indicators classified as inappropriate during the survey were removed based on median appropriateness ratings and level of agreement. Following the panel discussions, a further 60 were removed based on appropriateness and feasibility ratings, level of agreement and assessment of necessity. Themes identified during the panel discussion and findings of the evidence review were used to translate the remaining 51 indicators into a final set of 27.

Conclusion
The final indicator set included information on rationale and supporting evidence, methods of assessment, risk adjustment, and recommended performance levels. Further implementation work will test the suitability of this ‘toolkit’ for measurement and benchmarking. The final indicator set provides the basis for standardised assessment of quality across services, including care delivered in community and primary care settings.

Reference

• Fitch K, Bernstein SJ, Aguilar MD, et al. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method User’s Manual. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation; 2001. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1269

Protocol-driven adjustment of ocular hypotensive medication in patients at low risk of conversion to glaucoma

AIM: To investigate the safety and potential savings of decreasing medication use in low-risk patients with ocular hypertension (OH).
METHODS: Patients with OH receiving pressure-lowering medication identified by medical record review at a university hospital underwent examination by a glaucoma specialist with assessment of visual field (VF), vertical cup-to-disc ratio (vCDR), central corneal thickness and intraocular pressure (IOP). Subjects with estimated 5-year risk of glaucoma conversion <15% were asked to discontinue ≥1 medication, IOP was remeasured 1 month later and risk was re-evaluated at 1 year.
RESULTS: Among 212 eyes of 126 patients, 44 (20.8%) had 5-year risk >15% and 14 (6.6%) had unreliable baseline VF. At 1 month, 15 patients (29 eyes, 13.7%) defaulted follow-up or refused to discontinue medication and 11 eyes (5.2%) had risk >15%. The remaining 69 patients (107 eyes, 50.7%) successfully discontinued 141 medications and completed 1-year follow-up. Mean IOP (20.5±2.65 mm Hg vs 20.3±3.40, p=0.397) did not change, though mean VF pattern SD (1.58±0.41 dB vs 1.75±0.56 dB, p=0.001) and glaucoma conversion risk (7.31±3.74% vs 8.76±6.28%, p=0.001) increased at 1 year. Mean defect decreased (-1.42±1.60 vs -1.07±1.52, p=0.022). One eye (0.47%) developed a repeatable VF defect and 13 eyes (6.1%) had 5-year risk >15% at 1 year. The total 1-year cost of medications saved was US$4596.
CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half (43.9%) of low-risk OH eyes in this setting could safely reduce medications over 1 year, realising substantial savings.Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Birthweight and the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: a meta-analysis of observational studies using individual patient data

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated whether children who are heavier at birth have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. Methods: Relevant studies published before February 2009 were identified from literature searches using MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of all studies containing relevant data were contacted and asked to provide individual patient data or conduct pre-specified analyses. Risk estimates of type 1 diabetes by category of birthweight were calculated for each study, before and after adjustment for potential confounders. Meta-analysis techniques were then used to derive combined ORs and investigate heterogeneity between studies. Results: Data were available for 29 predominantly European studies (five cohort, 24 case-control studies), including 12,807 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, studies consistently demonstrated that children with birthweight from 3.5 to 4 kg had an increased risk of diabetes of 6% (OR 1.06 [95% CI 1.01-1.11]; p=0.02) and children with birthweight over 4 kg had an increased risk of 10% (OR 1.10 [95% CI 1.04-1.19]; p=0.003), compared with children weighing 3.0 to 3.5 kg at birth. This corresponded to a linear increase in diabetes risk of 3% per 500 g increase in birthweight (OR 1.03 [95% CI 1.00-1.06]; p=0.03). Adjustments for potential confounders such as gestational age, maternal age, birth order, Caesarean section, breastfeeding and maternal diabetes had little effect on these findings. Conclusions/interpretation: Children who are heavier at birth have a significant and consistent, but relatively small increase in risk of type 1 diabetes. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.


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House value as an indicator of cumulative wealth is strongly related to morbidity and mortality risk in older people: a census-based cross-sectional and longitudinal study

Background: There has been relatively little research into health inequalities in older populations. This may be partly explained by the difficulty in identifying appropriate indicators of socio-economic status for older people. Ideally, indicators of socio-economic status to be used in studies of health inequalities in older populations should incorporate some measure of life-time socio-economic standing, and house value may fill this role. This study examined whether an indicator of accumulated wealth based on a combination of housing tenure and house value was a strong predictor of ill-health in older populations.
Methods: A total of 191 848 people aged =65 years and not living in communal establishments were identified from the 2001 Northern Ireland Census and followed for 5 years. Self-reported health and mortality risk by housing tenure/house value groupings were examined while controlling for a range of other demographic and socio-economic characteristics.
Results: Housing tenure/house value was highly correlated with other indicators of socio-economic status. Public-sector renters had worse self-reported health and higher mortality rates than owner occupiers but significant gradients were also found between those living in the highest-and lowest-valued owner-occupier properties. The relationship between housing tenure and value was unchanged by adjustment for indicators of social support and quality of the physical environment. Adjustment for limiting long-term illness and self-reported health at baseline narrowed but did not eliminate the health gains associated with living in more expensive housing.
Conclusions: House value of residence is an accessible and powerful indicator of accumulated wealth that is highly correlated with current health status and predictive of future mortality risk in older populations.

Exposure to oral bisphosphonates and risk of esophageal cancer

Context: Use of oral bisphosphonates has increased dramatically in the United States and elsewhere. Esophagitis is a known adverse effect of bisphosphonate use, and recent reports suggest a link between bisphosphonate use and esophageal cancer, but this has not been robustly investigated.
Objective: To investigate the association between bisphosphonate use and esophageal cancer.
Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were extracted from the UK General Practice Research Database to compare the incidence of esophageal and gastric cancer in a cohort of patients treated with oral bisphosphonates between January 1996 and December 2006 with incidence in a control cohort. Cancers were identified from relevant Read/Oxford Medical Information System codes in the patient's clinical files. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in bisphosphonate users compared with nonusers, with adjustment for potential confounders.
Main Outcome Measure: Hazard ratio for the risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the bisphosphonate users compared with the bisphosphonate nonusers. Results: Mean follow-up time was 4.5 and 4.4 years in the bisphosphonate and control cohorts, respectively. Excluding patients with less than 6 months' follow-up, there were 41 826 members in each cohort (81% women; mean age, 70.0 (SD, 11.4) years). One hundred sixteen esophageal or gastric cancers (79 esophageal) occurred in the bisphosphonate cohort and 115 (72 esophageal) in the control cohort. The incidence of esophageal and gastric cancer combined was 0.7 per 1000 person-years of risk in both the bisphosphonate and control cohorts; the incidence of esophageal cancer alone in the bisphosphonate and control cohorts was 0.48 and 0.44 per 1000 person-years of risk, respectively. There was no difference in risk of esophageal and gastric cancer combined between the cohorts for any bisphosphonate use (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.96 [95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.25]) or risk of esophageal cancer only (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.49]). There also was no difference in risk of esophageal or gastric cancer by duration of bisphosphonate intake.
Conclusion: Among patients in the UK General Practice Research Database, the use of oral bisphosphonates was not significantly associated with incident esophageal or gastric cancer.

Caesarean section is associated with an increased risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: A meta-analysis of observational studies

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this study was to investigate the evidence of an increased risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in children born by Caesarean section by systematically reviewing the published literature and performing a meta-analysis with adjustment for recognised confounders.
Methods: After MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE searches, crude ORs and 95% CIs for type 1 diabetes in children born by Caesarean section were calculated from the data reported in each study. Authors were contacted to facilitate adjustments for potential confounders, either by supplying raw data or calculating adjusted estimates. Meta-analysis techniques were then used to derive combined ORs and to investigate heterogeneity between studies.
Results: Twenty studies were identified. Overall, there was a significant increase in the risk of type 1 diabetes in children born by Caesarean section (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.15-1.32, p<0.001). There was little evidence of heterogeneity between studies (p=0.54). Seventeen authors provided raw data or adjusted estimates to facilitate adjustments for potential confounders. In these studies, there was evidence of an increase in diabetes risk with greater birthweight, shorter gestation and greater maternal age. The increased risk of type 1 diabetes after Caesarean section was little altered after adjustment for gestational age, birth weight, maternal age, birth order, breast-feeding and maternal diabetes (adjusted OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36, p=0.01).
Conclusions/interpretation: This analysis demonstrates a 20% increase in the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes after Caesarean section delivery that cannot be explained by known confounders.

Infections and vaccinations as risk factors for childhood type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus: a multicentre case-control investigation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine if vaccinations and infections are associated with the subsequent risk of Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus in childhood. METHOD: Seven centres in Europe with access to population-based registers of children with Type I diabetes diagnosed under 15 years of age participated in a case-control study of environmental risk factors. Control children were chosen at random in each centre either from population registers or from schools and policlinics. Data on maternal and neonatal infections, common childhood infections and vaccinations were obtained for 900 cases and 2302 control children from hospital and clinic records and from parental responses to a questionnaire or interview. RESULTS: Infections early in the child's life noted in the hospital record were found to be associated with an increased risk of diabetes, although the odds ratio of 1.61 (95% confidence limits 1.11, 2.33) was significant only after adjustment for confounding variables. None of the common childhood infectious diseases was found to be associated with diabetes and neither was there evidence that any common childhood vaccination modified the risk of diabetes. Pre-school day-care attendance, a proxy measure for total infectious disease exposure in early childhood, was found, however, to be inversely associated with diabetes, with a pooled odds ratio of 0.59 (95% confidence limits 0.46, 0.76) after adjustment for confounding variables. CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: It seems likely that the explanation for these contrasting findings of an increased risk associated with perinatal infections coupled with a protective effect of pre-school day care lies in the age-dependent modifying influence of infections on the developing immune system.

Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: A pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

Background: The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies. Methods: Relevant studies published before January 2010 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of studies provided individual patient data or conducted pre-specified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios (ORs), before and after adjustment for confounders, and investigate heterogeneity. Results: Data were available for 6 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 11 955 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was no evidence of an association prior to adjustment for confounders. After adjustment for maternal age at birth and other confounders, a reduction in the risk of diabetes in second-or later born children became apparent [fully adjusted OR=0.90 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-0.98; P=0.02] but this association varied markedly between studies (I 2=67%). An a priori subgroup analysis showed that the association was stronger and more consistent in children <5years of age (n=25 studies, maternal age adjusted OR=0.84 95% CI 0.75, 0.93; I 2=23%). Conclusion: Although the association varied between studies, there was some evidence of a lower risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes with increasing birth order, particularly in children aged <5 years. This finding could reflect increased exposure to infections in early life in later born children. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2010; all rights reserved.

Association of dietary fat intakes with risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the NIH-AARP diet and health study

The aim of our study was to investigate whether intakes of total fat and fat subtypes were associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia or gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma. From 1995–1996, dietary intake data was reported by 494,978 participants of the NIH-AARP cohort. The 630 EAC, 215 ESCC, 454 gastric cardia and 501 gastric noncardia adenocarcinomas accrued to the cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between the dietary fat intakes, whilst adjusting for potential confounders. Although apparent associations were observed in energy-adjusted models, multivariate adjustment attenuated results to null [e.g., EAC energy adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.66 (1.27–2.18) p for trend <0.01; EAC multivariate adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.17 (0.84–1.64) p for trend 5 0.58]. Similar patterns were also observed for fat subtypes [e.g., EAC saturated fat, energy adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.79 (1.37–2.33) p for trend <0.01; EAC saturated fat, multivariate adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.27 (0.91–1.78) p for trend 5 0.28]. However, in multivariate models an inverse association for polyunsaturated fat (continuous) was seen for EAC in subjects with a body mass index (BMI) in the normal range (18.5–<25 kg/m2) [HR (95% CI) 0.76 (0.63–0.92)], that was not present in overweight subjects [HR (95% CI) 1.04 (0.96–1.14)], or in unstratified analysis [HR (95% CI) 0.97 (0.90–1.05)]. p for interaction 5 0.02. Overall, we found null associations between the dietary fat intakes with esophageal or gastric cancer risk; although a protective effect of polyunsaturated fat intake was seen for EAC in subjects with a normal BMI.

Job strain as a risk factor for coronary heart disease:a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND: Published work assessing psychosocial stress (job strain) as a risk factor for coronary heart disease is inconsistent and subject to publication bias and reverse causation bias. We analysed the relation between job strain and coronary heart disease with a meta-analysis of published and unpublished studies. METHODS: We used individual records from 13 European cohort studies (1985-2006) of men and women without coronary heart disease who were employed at time of baseline assessment. We measured job strain with questions from validated job-content and demand-control questionnaires. We extracted data in two stages such that acquisition and harmonisation of job strain measure and covariables occurred before linkage to records for coronary heart disease. We defined incident coronary heart disease as the first non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death. FINDINGS: 30?214 (15%) of 197?473 participants reported job strain. In 1·49 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 7·5 years [SD 1·7]), we recorded 2358 events of incident coronary heart disease. After adjustment for sex and age, the hazard ratio for job strain versus no job strain was 1·23 (95% CI 1·10-1·37). This effect estimate was higher in published (1·43, 1·15-1·77) than unpublished (1·16, 1·02-1·32) studies. Hazard ratios were likewise raised in analyses addressing reverse causality by exclusion of events of coronary heart disease that occurred in the first 3 years (1·31, 1·15-1·48) and 5 years (1·30, 1·13-1·50) of follow-up. We noted an association between job strain and coronary heart disease for sex, age groups, socioeconomic strata, and region, and after adjustments for socioeconomic status, and lifestyle and conventional risk factors. The population attributable risk for job strain was 3·4%. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that prevention of workplace stress might decrease disease incidence; however, this strategy would have a much smaller effect than would tackling of standard risk factors, such as smoking. FUNDING: Finnish Work Environment Fund, the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council for Working Life and Social Research, the German Social Accident Insurance, the Danish National Research Centre for the Working Environment, the BUPA Foundation, the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, the Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, and the US National Institutes of Health.

Intra-uterine growth restriction and increased risk of hypertension in adult life: A follow-up study of 50-year-olds

OBJECTIVE:

To compare blood pressure between 50-year-old adults who were born at term (37-42 weeks of gestation) with intra-uterine growth restriction (IUGR; birth weight <10th centile) and a control group of similar age born at term without IUGR (birth weight =10th centile).

STUDY DESIGN:

Controlled comparative study.

METHODS:

Participants included 232 men and women who were born at the Royal Maternity Hospital, Belfast, a large regional maternity hospital in Northern Ireland, between 1954 and 1956. One hundred and eight subjects who were born with IUGR were compared with 124 controls with normal birth weight for gestation. The main outcome measures were systolic and diastolic blood pressure at approximately 50 years of age, measured according to European recommendations.

RESULTS:

The IUGR group had higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure than the control group: 131.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 127.9-135.1] vs 127.1 (95% CI 124.3-129.2) mmHg and 82.3 (95% CI 79.6-85.0) vs 79.0 (95% CI 77.0-81.0) mmHg, respectively. After adjustment for gender, the differences between the groups were statistically significant: systolic blood pressure 4.5 (95% CI 0.3-8.7) mmHg and diastolic blood pressure 3.4 (95% CI 0.2-6.5) mmHg (both P < 0.05). More participants in the IUGR group were receiving treatment for high blood pressure compared with the control group [16 (15%) vs 11 (9%)], although this was not statistically significant. The proportion of subjects with blood pressure >140/90 mmHg or currently receiving antihypertensive treatment was 45% (n = 49) for the IUGR group, and 31% (n = 38) for the control group (odds ratio 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.3). Adjustment for potential confounders made little difference.

CONCLUSIONS:

IUGR is associated with higher blood pressure at 50 years of age. Individuals born with IUGR should have regular blood pressure screening and early treatment as required. Hypertension remains underdiagnosed and undertreated in adult life.

ARMS2 Increases the Risk of Early and Late Age-Related Macular Degeneration in the European Eye Study

OBJECTIVE:
To study associations between severity stages of early and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and genetic variations in age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 (ARMS2) and complement factor H (CFH) and to investigate potential interactions between smoking and ARMS2.
DESIGN:
Population-based, cross-sectional European Eye Study in 7 countries in Europe.
PARTICIPANTS:
Four thousand seven hundred fifty participants, 65 years of age and older, recruited through random sampling.
METHODS:
Participants were classified on the basis of the more severely affected eye into 5 mutually exclusive AMD severity stages ranging from no AMD, 3 categories of early AMD, and late AMD. History of cigarette smoking was available and allowed classification into never, former, and current smokers, with the latter 2 groups combined into a single category of ever smokers for analysis. Genotyping was performed for single nucleotide polymorphisms rs10490924 and rs4146894 in ARMS2 and rs1061170 in CFH. Associations were analyzed by logistic regression.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:
Odds ratios (ORs) for stage of AMD associated with genetic variations in ARMS2 and CFH and interactions between ARMS2 and smoking status.
RESULTS:
Early AMD was present in 36.4% and late AMD was present in 3.3% of participants. Data on both genotype and AMD were available for 4276 people. The ORs for associations between AMD stage and ARMS2 increased monotonically with more severe stages of early AMD and were altered little by adjustment for potential confounders. Compared with persons with no AMD, carriers of the TT genotype for rs10490924 in ARMS2 had a 10-fold increase in risk of late AMD (P<3 × 10(-20)). The ORs for associations with CFH were similar for stage 3 early AMD and late AMD. Interactions between rs10490924 in ARMS2 and smoking status were significant in both unadjusted and adjusted models (P = 0.001). The highest risk was observed in those doubly homozygous for rs10490924 and rs1061170 in CFH (OR, 62.3; 95% confidence interval, 16-242), with P values for trend ranging from 0.03 (early AMD, stage 1) to 1 × 10(-26) (late AMD).
CONCLUSIONS:
A strong association was demonstrated between all stages of AMD and genetic variation in ARMS2, and a significant gene-environment interaction with cigarette smoking was confirmed.

The NAD(P)H : quinone oxidoreductase IC609T polymorphism modifies the risk of Barrett esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma

Purpose: The role of genetic susceptibility to esophageal adenocarcinorna and its precursor lesion Barrett esophagus has not been fully elucidated. This study investigated the effect of polymorphisms in the manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) and NAD(P)H:quinone oxicloreductase 1 (NQO1) genes in modulating the risk of developing Barrett esophagus or esophageal adenocarcinoma. Methods: A total of 584 patients (146 esophagitis, 200 Barrett esophagus, 144 esophageal adenocarcinoma, and 94 controls) were genotyped for the MnSOD C14T and NQO1 C609T polymorphisms using polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Results: The NQO1 TT genotype was less common in Barrett esophagus (2.0%) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (1.4%) patients, compared with both esophagitis patients (7.6%) and controls (5.4%). After adjustment for sex, age, body mass index, reflux symptoms, and smoking status, patients with the homozygous TT genotype had a 4.5-fold decreased risk of developing Barrett esophagus (odds ratio = 0.22, 95% confidence interval = 0.07-0.76, P = 0.01) and a 6.2-fold decreased risk of esophageal adenocarcinorna (odds ratio = 0.16, 95% confidence intervals = 0.03-0.94, P = 0.04) compared with individuals with the TC and CC genotypes. No significant differences between groups were observed for the MnSOD polymorphism (P = 0.289). Conclusions: Overall, the results of this study suggest that the NQO1 TT genotype may offer protection from reflux complications such as Barrett esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.