Analysis of Degradation Data of Poly(L-lactide-co-L,D-lactic actide) and Poly(L-lactide) Obtained at Elevated and Physiological Temperatures Using Mathematical Models

The degradation of resorbable polymeric devices often takes months to years. Accelerated testing at elevated temperatures is an attractive but controversial technique. The purposes of this paper include: (a) to provide a summary of the mathematical models required to analyse accelerated degradation data and to indicate the pitfalls of using these models; (b) to improve the model previously developed by Han and Pan; (c) to provide a simple version of the model of Han and Pan with an analytical solution that is convenient to use; (d) to demonstrate the application of the improved model in two different poly(lactic acid) systems. It is shown that the simple analytical relations between molecular weight and degradation time widely used in the literature can lead to inadequate conclusions. In more general situations the rate equations are only part of a complete degradation model. Together with previous works in the literature, our study calls for care in using the accelerated testing technique.

Applications of statistical models in proportioning medium strength self-compacting concrete

Self-compacting concrete (SCC) is generally designed with a relatively higher content of finer, which includes cement, and dosage of superplasticizer than the conventional concrete. The design of the current SCC leads to high compressive strength, which is already used in special applications, where the high cost of materials can be tolerated. Using SCC, which eliminates the need for vibration, leads to increased speed of casting and thus reduces labour requirement, energy consumption, construction time, and cost of equipment. In order to obtain and gain maximum benefit from SCC it has to be used for wider applications. The cost of materials will be decreased by reducing the cement content and using a minimum amount of admixtures. This paper reviews statistical models obtained from a factorial design which was carried out to determine the influence of four key parameters on filling ability, passing ability, segregation and compressive strength. These parameters are important for the successful development of medium strength self-compacting concrete (MS-SCC). The parameters considered in the study were the contents of cement and pulverised fuel ash (PFA), water-to-powder ratio (W/P), and dosage of superplasticizer (SP). The responses of the derived statistical models are slump flow, fluidity loss, rheological parameters, Orimet time, V-funnel time, L-box, JRing combined to Orimet, JRing combined to cone, fresh segregation, and compressive strength at 7, 28 and 90 days. The models are valid for mixes made with 0.38 to 0.72 W/P ratio, 60 to 216 kg/m3 of cement content, 183 to 317 kg/m3 of PFA and 0 to 1% of SP, by mass of powder. The utility of such models to optimize concrete mixes to achieve good balance between filling ability, passing ability, segregation, compressive strength, and cost is discussed. Examples highlighting the usefulness of the models are presented using isoresponse surfaces to demonstrate single and coupled effects of mix parameters on slump flow, loss of fluidity, flow resistance, segregation, JRing combined to Orimet, and compressive strength at 7 and 28 days. Cost analysis is carried out to show trade-offs between cost of materials and specified consistency levels and compressive strength at 7 and 28 days that can be used to identify economic mixes. The paper establishes the usefulness of the mathematical models as a tool to facilitate the test protocol required to optimise medium strength SCC.

Optimisation of Kinetic Parameters for an After-treatment Catalyst

Mathematical modelling has become an essential tool in the design of modern catalytic systems. Emissions legislation is becoming increasingly stringent, and so mathematical models of aftertreatment systems must become more accurate in order to provide confidence that a catalyst will convert pollutants over the required range of conditions. 
Automotive catalytic converter models contain several sub-models that represent processes such as mass and heat transfer, and the rates at which the reactions proceed on the surface of the precious metal. Of these sub-models, the prediction of the surface reaction rates is by far the most challenging due to the complexity of the reaction system and the large number of gas species involved. The reaction rate sub-model uses global reaction kinetics to describe the surface reaction rate of the gas species and is based on the Langmuir Hinshelwood equation further developed by Voltz et al. [1] The reactions can be modelled using the pre-exponential and activation energies of the Arrhenius equations and the inhibition terms. 
The reaction kinetic parameters of aftertreatment models are found from experimental data, where a measured light-off curve is compared against a predicted curve produced by a mathematical model. The kinetic parameters are usually manually tuned to minimize the error between the measured and predicted data. This process is most commonly long, laborious and prone to misinterpretation due to the large number of parameters and the risk of multiple sets of parameters giving acceptable fits. Moreover, the number of coefficients increases greatly with the number of reactions. Therefore, with the growing number of reactions, the task of manually tuning the coefficients is becoming increasingly challenging. 
In the presented work, the authors have developed and implemented a multi-objective genetic algorithm to automatically optimize reaction parameters in AxiSuite®, [2] a commercial aftertreatment model. The genetic algorithm was developed and expanded from the code presented by Michalewicz et al. [3] and was linked to AxiSuite using the Simulink add-on for Matlab. 
The default kinetic values stored within the AxiSuite model were used to generate a series of light-off curves under rich conditions for a number of gas species, including CO, NO, C_{3H8 and C3H6. These light-off curves were used to generate an objective function.} 
This objective function was used to generate a measure of fit for the kinetic parameters. The multi-objective genetic algorithm was subsequently used to search between specified limits to attempt to match the objective function. In total the pre-exponential factors and activation energies of ten reactions were simultaneously optimized. 
The results reported here demonstrate that, given accurate experimental data, the optimization algorithm is successful and robust in defining the correct kinetic parameters of a global kinetic model describing aftertreatment processes.

Unsteady Gas Dynamic Engine Simulation

This paper provides an overview of the basic theory underlying 1D unsteady gas dynamics, the computational method developed at Queen’s University Belfast (QUB), the use of CFD as an alternative and some experimental results that demonstrate the techniques used to develop the mathematical models.

Methodology for Validating Artifact Removal Techniques for Physiological Signals

Artifact removal from physiological signals is an essential component of the biosignal processing pipeline. The need for powerful and robust methods for this process has become particularly acute as healthcare technology deployment undergoes transition from the current hospital-centric setting toward a wearable and ubiquitous monitoring environment. Currently, determining the relative efficacy and performance of the multiple artifact removal techniques available on real world data can be problematic, due to incomplete information on the uncorrupted desired signal. The majority of techniques are presently evaluated using simulated data, and therefore, the quality of the conclusions is contingent on the fidelity of the model used. Consequently, in the biomedical signal processing community, there is considerable focus on the generation and validation of appropriate signal models for use in artifact suppression. Most approaches rely on mathematical models which capture suitable approximations to the signal dynamics or underlying physiology and, therefore, introduce some uncertainty to subsequent predictions of algorithm performance. This paper describes a more empirical approach to the modeling of the desired signal that we demonstrate for functional brain monitoring tasks which allows for the procurement of a ground truth signal which is highly correlated to a true desired signal that has been contaminated with artifacts. The availability of this ground truth, together with the corrupted signal, can then aid in determining the efficacy of selected artifact removal techniques. A number of commonly implemented artifact removal techniques were evaluated using the described methodology to validate the proposed novel test platform. © 2012 IEEE.

Surveillance for ocular hypertension: An evidence synthesis and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.

DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.

SETTING: Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).

INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.

LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Implications of Intercellular Signaling for Radiation Therapy: A Theoretical Dose-Planning Study

Purpose
Recent in vitro results have shown significant contributions to cell killing from signaling effects at doses that are typically used in radiation therapy. This study investigates whether these in vitro observations can be reconciled with in vivo knowledge and how signaling may have an impact on future developments in radiation therapy.
Methods and Materials
Prostate cancer treatment plans were generated for a series of 10 patients using 3-dimensional conformal therapy, intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), and volumetric modulated arc therapy techniques. These plans were evaluated using mathematical models of survival following modulated radiation exposures that were developed from in vitro observations and incorporate the effects of intercellular signaling. The impact on dose-volume histograms and mean doses were evaluated by converting these survival levels into "signaling-adjusted doses" for comparison.
Results
Inclusion of intercellular communication leads to significant differences between the signalling-adjusted and physical doses across a large volume. Organs in low-dose regions near target volumes see the largest increases, with mean signaling-adjusted bladder doses increasing from 23 to 33 Gy in IMRT plans. By contrast, in high-dose regions, there is a small decrease in signaling-adjusted dose due to reduced contributions from neighboring cells, with planning target volume mean doses falling from 74 to 71 Gy in IMRT. Overall, however, the dose distributions remain broadly similar, and comparisons between the treatment modalities are largely unchanged whether physical or signaling-adjusted dose is compared. Conclusions Although incorporating cellular signaling significantly affects cell killing in low-dose regions and suggests a different interpretation for many phenomena, their effect in high-dose regions for typical planning techniques is comparatively small. This indicates that the significant signaling effects observed in vitro are not contradicted by comparison with clinical observations. Future investigations are needed to validate these effects in vivo and to quantify their ranges and potential impact on more advanced radiation therapy techniques.

Parasites that change predator or prey behaviour can have keystone effects on community composition

Parasites play pivotal roles in structuring communities, often via indirect interactions with non-host species. These effects can be density-mediated (through mortality) or trait-mediated (behavioural, physiological and developmental), and may be crucial to population interactions, including biological invasions. For instance, parasitism can alter intraguild predation (IGP) between native and invasive crustaceans, reversing invasion outcomes. Here, we use mathematical models to examine how parasite-induced trait changes influence the population dynamics of hosts that interact via IGP. We show that trait-mediated indirect interactions impart keystone effects, promoting or inhibiting host coexistence. Parasites can thus have strong ecological impacts, even if they have negligible virulence, underscoring the need to consider trait-mediated effects when predicting effects of parasites on community structure in general and biological invasions in particular.

In Vitro Release from Reverse Poloxamine/alpha-Cyclodextrin Matrices: Modelling and Comparison of Dissolution Profiles

Gels obtained by complexation of octablock star polyethylene oxide/polypropylene oxide copolymers (Tetronic 90R4) with -cyclodextrin (-CD) were evaluated as matrices for drug release. Both molecules are biocompatible so they can be potentially applied to drug delivery systems. Two different types of matrices of Tetronic 90R4 and -CD were evaluated: gels and tablets. These gels are capable to gelifying in situ and show sustained erosion kinetics in aqueous media. Tablets were prepared by freeze-drying and comprising the gels. Using these two different matrices, the release of two model molecules, L-tryptophan (Trp), and a protein, bovine serum albumin (BSA), was evaluated. The release profiles of these molecules from gels and tablets prove that they are suitable for sustained delivery. Mathematical models were applied to the release curves from tablets to elucidate the drug delivery mechanism. Good correlations were found for the fittings of the release curves to different equations. The results point that the release of Trp from different tablets is always governed by Fickian diffusion, whereas the release of BSA is governed by a combination of diffusion and tablet erosion. 

Release of β-galactosidase from poloxamine/α-cyclodextrin hydrogels

All mammals lose their ability to produce lactase (β-galactosidase), the enzyme that cleaves lactose into galactose and glucose, after weaning. The prevalence of lactase deficiency (LD) spans from 2 to 15% among northern Europeans, to nearly 100% among Asians. Following lactose consumption, people with LD often experience gastrointestinal symptoms such as abdominal pain, bowel distension, cramps and flatulence, or even systemic problems such as headache, loss of concentration and muscle pain. These symptoms vary depending on the amount of lactose ingested, type of food and degree of intolerance. Although those affected can avoid the uptake of dairy products, in doing so, they lose a readily available source of calcium and protein. In this work, gels obtained by complexation of Tetronic 90R4 with α-cyclodextrin loaded with β-galactosidase are proposed as a way to administer the enzyme immediately before or with the lactose-containing meal. Both molecules are biocompatible, can form gels in situ, and show sustained erosion kinetics in aqueous media. The complex was characterized by FTIR that evidenced an inclusion complex between the polyethylene oxide block and α-cyclodextrin. The release profiles of β-galactosidase from two different matrices (gels and tablets) of the in situ hydrogels have been obtained. The influence of the percentage of Tetronic in media of different pH was evaluated. No differences were observed regarding the release rate from the gel matrices at pH 6 (t50 = 105 min). However, in the case of the tablets, the kinetics were faster and they released a greater amount of 90R4 (25%, t50 = 40–50 min). Also, the amount of enzyme released was higher for mixtures with 25% Tetronic. Using suitable mathematical models, the corresponding kinetic parameters have been calculated. In all cases, the release data fit quite well to the Peppas–Sahlin model equation, indicating that the release of β-galactosidase is governed by a combination of diffusion and erosion processes. It has been observed that the diffusion mechanism prevails over erosion during the first 50 minutes, followed by continued release of the enzyme due to the disintegration of the matrix.

Genetics of Diabetic Nephropathy: a Long Road of Discovery

The global prevalence of diabetic nephropathy is rising in parallel with the increasing incidence of diabetes in most countries. Unfortunately, up to 40 % of persons diagnosed with diabetes may develop kidney complications. Diabetic nephropathy is associated with substantially increased risks of cardiovascular disease and premature mortality. An inherited susceptibility to diabetic nephropathy exists, and progress is being made unravelling the genetic basis for nephropathy thanks to international research collaborations, shared biological resources and new analytical approaches. Multiple epidemiological studies have highlighted the clinical heterogeneity of nephropathy and the need for better phenotyping to help define important subgroups for analysis and increase the power of genetic studies. Collaborative genome-wide association studies for nephropathy have reported unique genes, highlighted novel biological pathways and suggested new disease mechanisms, but progress towards clinically relevant risk prediction models for diabetic nephropathy has been slow. This review summarises the current status, recent developments and ongoing challenges elucidating the genetics of diabetic nephropathy.

A biogeography-based optimization algorithm with mutation strategies for model parameter estimation of solar and fuel cells

Mathematical models are useful tools for simulation, evaluation, optimal operation and control of solar cells and proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). To identify the model parameters of these two type of cells efficiently, a biogeography-based optimization algorithm with mutation strategies (BBO-M) is proposed. The BBO-M uses the structure of biogeography-based optimization algorithm (BBO), and both the mutation motivated from the differential evolution (DE) algorithm and the chaos theory are incorporated into the BBO structure for improving the global searching capability of the algorithm. Numerical experiments have been conducted on ten benchmark functions with 50 dimensions, and the results show that BBO-M can produce solutions of high quality and has fast convergence rate. Then, the proposed BBO-M is applied to the model parameter estimation of the two type of cells. The experimental results clearly demonstrate the power of the proposed BBO-M in estimating model parameters of both solar and fuel cells.

Hospitalization in Geriatric Wards: Considerations on the Evaluation of the Outcome

Within a defined law framework, the Italian central health system dictates the standards for hospitalization to local care units, which are in turn allowed to establish their own effectiveness criteria. The appropriateness of the hospitalization decision is therefore predetermined at patients admission, whereas its effectiveness relies on the ex post patient well-being as a result of the complex system of reciprocal relations between patients and healthcare agents at the ward level. We consider the outcomes in geriatric wards referring to the national health system, with respect both to patients traits at the individual level and wards/hospital settings. The risk that models the healthcare outcome is accordingly adjusted for covariates at the different levels of analysis (Goldstein & Spiegelhalter, 1996), thus allowing to differentiate among outcomes in terms of the hospitalization structure and, when appropriate, of territorial aggregation.