Simplification of structured population dynamics in complex ecological communities

Goldstone's idea of slow dynamics resulting from spontaneously broken symmetries is applied to Hubbell's neutral hypothesis of community dynamics, to efficiently simplify stage-structured multi-species models-introducing the quasi-neutral approximation (QNA). Rather than assuming population-dynamical neutrality in the QNA, deviations from ideal neutrality, thought to be small, drive dynamics. The QNA is systematically derived to first and second order in a two-scale singular perturbation expansion. The total reproductive value of species, as computed from the effective life-history parameters resulting from the non-linear interactions with the surrounding community, emerges as the new dynamic variables in this aggregated description. Using a simple stage-structured community-assembly model, the QNA is demonstrated to accurately reproduce population dynamics in large, complex communities. Further, the utility of the QNA in building intuition for management problems is illustrated by estimating the responses of a fish stock to harvesting and variations in fecundity.

Patterns of synchrony in natterjack toad breeding activity and reproductive success at local and regional scales

Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short-term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond-breeding amphibians. © 2012 The Authors. Ecography © 2012 Nordic Society Oikos.

Where the Lake Meets the Sea: Strong Reproductive Isolation Is Associated with Adaptive Divergence between Lake Resident and Anadromous Three-Spined Sticklebacks

Contact zones between divergent forms of the same species are often characterised by high levels of phenotypic diversity over small geographic distances. What processes are involved in generating such high phenotypic diversity? One possibility is that introgression and recombination between divergent forms in contact zones results in greater phenotypic and genetic polymorphism. Alternatively, strong reproductive isolation between forms may maintain distinct phenotypes, preventing homogenisation by gene flow. Contact zones between divergent freshwater-resident and anadromous stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) forms are numerous and common throughout the species distribution, offering an opportunity to examine these contrasting hypotheses in greater detail. This study reports on an interesting new contact zone located in a tidally influenced lake catchment in western Ireland, characterised by high polymorphism for lateral plate phenotypes. Using neutral and QTL-linked microsatellite markers, we tested whether the high diversity observed in this contact zone arose as a result of introgression or reproductive isolation between divergent forms: we found strong support for the latter hypothesis. Three phenotypic and genetic clusters were identified, consistent with two divergent resident forms and a distinct anadromous completely plated population that migrates in and out of the system. Given the strong neutral differentiation detected between all three morphotypes (mean FST = 0.12), we hypothesised that divergent selection between forms maintains reproductive isolation. We found a correlation between neutral genetic and adaptive genetic differentiation that support this. While strong associations between QTL linked markers and phenotypes were also observed in this wild population, our results support the suggestion that such associations may be more complex in some Atlantic populations compared to those in the Pacific. These findings provide an important foundation for future work investigating the dynamics of gene flow and adaptive divergence in this newly discovered stickleback contact zone.