Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.

Refining the Chronology of the Neolithic Settlement at Pool, Sanday, Orkney: Implications for the Emergence and Development of Grooved Ware

New radiocarbon dates for the Neolithic settlement at Pool on Sanday, Orkney, are interpreted in a formal chronological framework. Phases 2.2 and 2.3, during which flat-based Grooved Ware pottery with incised decoration developed, have been modelled as probably dating to between the 31st and 28th centuries cal bc. There followed a hiatus of a century or so, before the resumption of occupation in Phase 3, which has a different Grooved Ware style featuring the use of applied decoration. This has been modelled as probably dating from the 26th to the 24th centuries cal bc. The implications of these results are discussed for the emergence and development of Grooved Ware, and for the trajectory of settlement and monumentality on Sanday.

Refining the diagnosis and EGFR status of non-small cell lung carcinoma in biopsy and cytologic material, using a panel of mucin staining, TTF-1, cytokeratin 5/6, and P63, and EGFR mutation analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The dichotomization of non-small cell carcinoma (NSCLC) subtype into squamous (SQCC) and adenocarcinoma (ADC) has become important in recent years and is increasingly required with regard to management. The aim of this study was to determine the utility of a panel of commercially available antibodies in refining the diagnosis on small biopsies and also to determine whether cytologic material is suitable for somatic EGFR genotyping in a prospectively analyzed series of patients undergoing investigation for suspected lung cancer. METHODS: Thirty-two consecutive cases of NSCLC were first tested using a panel comprising cytokeratin 5/6, P63, thyroid transcription factor-1, 34betaE12, and a D-PAS stain for mucin, to determine their value in refining diagnosis of NSCLC. After this test phase, two further pathologists independently reviewed the cases using a refined panel that excluded 34betaE12 because of its low specificity for SQCC, and refinement of diagnosis and concordance were assessed. Ten cases of ADC, including eight derived from cytologic samples, were sent for EGFR mutation analysis. RESULTS: There was refinement of diagnosis in 65% of cases of NSCLC to either SQCC or ADC in the test phase. This included 10 of 13 cases where cell pellets had been prepared from transbronchial needle aspirates. Validation by two further pathologists with varying expertise in lung pathology confirmed increased refinement and concordance of diagnosis. All samples were adequate for analysis, and they all showed a wild-type EGFR genotype. CONCLUSION: A panel comprising cytokeratin 5/6, P63, thyroid transcription factor-1, and a D-PAS stain for mucin increases diagnostic accuracy and agreement between pathologists when faced with refining a diagnosis of NSCLC to SQCC or ADC. These small samples, even cell pellets derived from transbronchial needle aspirates, seem to be adequate for EGFR mutation analysis.

Radiocarbon calibration in the Anglo-Saxon period: AD 495-725

Radiocarbon dating has been rarely used for chronological problems relating to the Anglo-Saxon period. The "flatness" of the calibration curve and the resultant wide range in calendrical dates provide little advantage over traditional archaeological dating in this period. Recent advances in Bayesian methodology have, however, created the possibility of refining and checking the established chronologies, based on typology of artifacts, against 14C dates. The calibration process, within such a confined age range, however, relies heavily on the structural accuracy of the calibration curve. We have therefore re-measured, at decadal intervals, a section of the Irish oak chronology for the period AD 495–725. These measurements have been included in IntCal04.

Evaluation of predicted network modules in yeast metabolism using NMR-based metabolite profiling

Genome-scale metabolic models promise important insights into cell function. However, the definition of pathways and functional network modules within these models, and in the biochemical literature in general, is often based on intuitive reasoning. Although mathematical methods have been proposed to identify modules, which are defined as groups of reactions with correlated fluxes, there is a need for experimental verification. We show here that multivariate statistical analysis of the NMR-derived intra- and extracellular metabolite profiles of single-gene deletion mutants in specific metabolic pathways in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae identified outliers whose profiles were markedly different from those of the other mutants in their respective pathways. Application of flux coupling analysis to a metabolic model of this yeast showed that the deleted gene in an outlying mutant encoded an enzyme that was not part of the same functional network module as the other enzymes in the pathway. We suggest that metabolomic methods such as this, which do not require any knowledge of how a gene deletion might perturb the metabolic network, provide an empirical method for validating and ultimately refining the predicted network structure.

Extended Radiocarbon Calibration in the Anglo-Saxon Period, AD395-485 and AD735-805

Radiocarbon dating has been used infrequently as a chronological tool for research in Anglo-Saxon archaeology. Primarily, this is because the uncertainty of calibrated dates provides little advantage over traditional archaeological dating in this period. Recent advances in Bayesian methodology in conjunction with high-precision 14C dating have, however, created the possibility of both testing and refining the established Anglo-Saxon chronologies based on typology of artifacts. The calibration process within such a confined age range, however, relies heavily on the structural accuracy of the calibration curve. We have previously reported decadal measurements on a section of the Irish oak chronology for the period AD 495–725 (McCormac et al. 2004). In this paper, we present decadal measurements for the periods AD 395–485 and AD 735–805,which extends the original calibration set.

Methodological considerations in reserve system selection: a case study of Malagasy Lemurs.

Although data quality and weighting decisions impact the outputs of reserve selection algorithms, these factors have not been closely studied. We examine these methodological issues in the use of reserve selection algorithms by comparing: (1) quality of input data and (2) use of different weighting methods for prioritizing among species. In 2003, the government of Madagascar, a global biodiversity hotspot, committed to tripling the size of its protected area network to protect 10% of the country’s total land area. We apply the Zonation reserve selection algorithm to distribution data for 52 lemur species to identify priority areas for the expansion of Madagascar’s reserve network. We assess the similarity of the areas selected, as well as the proportions of lemur ranges protected in the resulting areas when different forms of input data were used: extent of occurrence versus refined extent of occurrence. Low overlap between the areas selected suggests that refined extent of occurrence data are highly desirable, and to best protect lemur species, we recommend refining extent of occurrence ranges using habitat and altitude limitations. Reserve areas were also selected for protection based on three different species weighting schemes, resulting in marked variation in proportional representation of species among the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species extinction risk categories. This result demonstrates that assignment of species weights influences whether a reserve network prioritizes maximizing overall species protection or maximizing protection of the most threatened species.

International perspectives on the influence of structure and process of weaning from mechanical ventilation.

Background 
Recently, clinical and research attention has been focused on refining weaning processes to improve outcomes for critically ill patients who require mechanical ventilation. One such process, use of a weaning protocol, has yielded conflicting results, arguably because of the influence of existing context and processes.

Objective 
To compare international data to assess differences in context and processes in intensive care units that could influence weaning.  

Methods 
Review of existing national data on provision of care for critically ill patients, including structure, staffing, skill mix, education, roles, and responsibilities for weaning in intensive care units of selected countries.

Results 
Australia, New Zealand, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom showed similarities in critical care provision, structure, skill mix, and staffing ratios in intensive care units. Weaning in these countries is generally a collaborative process between nurses and physicians. Notable differences in intensive care units in the United States were the frequent use of an open structure and inclusion of respiratory therapists on the intensive care unit’s health care team. Nurses may be excluded from direct management of ventilator weaning in some institutions, as this role is primarily assumed by respiratory therapists guided by medical directives. Availability of critical care beds was highest in the United States and lowest in the United Kingdom.

Conclusion 
Context and processes of care that could influence ventilator weaning outcomes varied considerably across countries. Further quantification of these contextual influences should be considered when translating research findings into local clinical practice and when designing randomized, controlled trials.

Exploiting spatio-temporal constraints for robust 2D pose tracking

We present a Spatio-temporal 2D Models Framework (STMF) for 2D-Pose tracking. Space and time are discretized and a mixture of probabilistic "local models" is learnt associating 2D Shapes and 2D Stick Figures. Those spatio-temporal models generalize well for a particular viewpoint and state of the tracked action but some spatio-temporal discontinuities can appear along a sequence, as a direct consequence of the discretization. To overcome the problem, we propose to apply a Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filter (RBPF) in the 2D-Pose eigenspace, thus interpolating unseen data between view-based clusters. The fitness to the images of the predicted 2D-Poses is evaluated combining our STMF with spatio-temporal constraints. A robust, fast and smooth human motion tracker is obtained by tracking only the few most important dimensions of the state space and by refining deterministically with our STMF.

A revised age for the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra, a key marker for the Last Glacial Maximum in New Zealand

The Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra (KOT) is a key chronostratigraphic marker in terrestrial and marine deposits of the New Zealand (NZ) sector of the southwest Pacific. Erupted early during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the wide distribution of the KOT enables inter-regional alignment of proxy records and facilitates comparison between NZ climatic variations and those from well-dated records elsewhere. We present 22 new radiocarbon ages for the KOT from sites and materials considered optimal for dating, and apply Bayesian statistical methods via OxCal4.1.7 that incorporate stratigraphic information to develop a new age probability model for KOT. The revised calibrated age, ±2 standard deviations, for the eruption of the KOT is 25,360 ± 160 cal yr BP. The age revision provides a basis for refining marine reservoir ages for the LGM in the southwest Pacific.