STPA-SafeSec: Safety and Security Analysis for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems tightly integrate physical processes and information and communication technologies. As today’s critical infrastructures, e.g., the power grid or water distribution networks, are complex cyber-physical systems, ensuring their safety and security becomes of paramount importance. Traditional safety analysis methods, such as HAZOP, are ill-suited to assess these systems. Furthermore, cybersecurity vulnerabilities are often not considered critical, because their effects on the physical processes are not fully understood. In this work, we present STPA-SafeSec, a novel analysis methodology for both safety and security. Its results show the dependencies between cybersecurity vulnerabilities and system safety. Using this information, the most effective mitigation strategies to ensure safety and security of the system can be readily identified. We apply STPA-SafeSec to a use case in the power grid domain, and highlight its benefits.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Two-Stage Orthogonal Least Squares Methods for Neural Network Construction

A number of neural networks can be formulated as the linear-in-the-parameters models. Training such networks can be transformed to a model selection problem where a compact model is selected from all the candidates using subset selection algorithms. Forward selection methods are popular fast subset selection approaches. However, they may only produce suboptimal models and can be trapped into a local minimum. More recently, a two-stage fast recursive algorithm (TSFRA) combining forward selection and backward model refinement has been proposed to improve the compactness and generalization performance of the model. This paper proposes unified two-stage orthogonal least squares methods instead of the fast recursive-based methods. In contrast to the TSFRA, this paper derives a new simplified relationship between the forward and the backward stages to avoid repetitive computations using the inherent orthogonal properties of the least squares methods. Furthermore, a new term exchanging scheme for backward model refinement is introduced to reduce computational demand. Finally, given the error reduction ratio criterion, effective and efficient forward and backward subset selection procedures are proposed. Extensive examples are presented to demonstrate the improved model compactness constructed by the proposed technique in comparison with some popular methods.

Constraining the age of Lateglacial and early Holocene pollen zones and tephra horizons in southern Sweden with Bayesian probability methods

The sediment sequence from Hasseldala port in southeastern Sweden provides a unique Lateglacial/early Holocene record that contains five different tephra layers. Three of these have been geochemically identified as the Borrobol Tephra, the Hasseldalen Tephra and the 10-ka Askja Tephra. Twenty-eight high-resolution C-14 measurements have been obtained and three different age models based on Bayesian statistics are employed to provide age estimates for the five different tephra layers. The chrono- and pollen stratigraphic framework supports the stratigraphic position of the Borrobol Tephra as found in Sweden at the very end of the Older Dryas pollen zone and provides the first age estimates for the Askja and Hasseldalen tephras. Our results, however, highlight the limitations that arise in attempting to establish a robust, chronologically independent lacustrine sequence that can be correlated in great detail to ice core or marine records. Radiocarbon samples are prone to error and sedimentation rates in lake basins may vary considerably due to a number of factors. Any type of valid and 'realistic' age model, therefore, has to take these limitations into account and needs to include this information in its prior assumptions. As a result, the age ranges for the specific horizons at Hasseldala port are large and calendar year estimates differ according to the assumptions of the age-model. Not only do these results provide a cautionary note for overdependence on one age-model for the derivation of age estimates for specific horizons, but they also demonstrate that precise correlations to other palaeoarchives to detect leads or lags is problematic. Given the uncertainties associated with establishing age-depth models for sedimentary sequences spanning the Lateglacial period, however, this exercise employing Bayesian probability methods represents the best possible approach and provides the most statistically significant age estimates for the pollen zone boundaries and tephra horizons. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Bayesian Network Hybrid Model for Representing Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department in a UK based National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (Emergency Rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

The factor structure of the revised Illness Perceptions Questionnaire in a population of oesophageal cancer survivors

Objectives
To determine whether the proposed 7-factor structure of the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised (Timeline Acute/Chronic, Timeline Cyclical, Consequences, Personal Control, Treatment Control, Illness Coherence and Emotional Representations) is appropriate among a population of oesophageal cancer survivors.
Methods
Everyone registered with the Oesophageal Patients’ Association in the UK (n=2185) was mailed a questionnaire booklet which included the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised. Responses from 587 oesophageal cancer survivors (27%) were subjected to a confirmatory factor analysis.
Results
The proposed 7 factor structure provided a reasonable fit of the data. Modification indices suggested that a significantly better fit could be provided if one of the items on the Timeline Acute/Chronic factor loaded on the Treatment Control factor and an error covariance was added between 2 other items on the Timeline Acute/Chronic factor.
Conclusions
The model fit for the 7 factor structure proposed by Moss-Morris et al. (2002) was found to be adequate in our study. However, the structure of the timeline acute/chronic factor needs to be considered, particularly when the IPQ-R is to be used among older people with a potentially life-threatening illness or those receiving palliative care.

A Bayesian network hybrid model for representing accident and emergency waiting times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an accident and emergency (A&E) department in a UK based national health service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (emergency rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

Job strain as a risk factor for coronary heart disease:a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND: Published work assessing psychosocial stress (job strain) as a risk factor for coronary heart disease is inconsistent and subject to publication bias and reverse causation bias. We analysed the relation between job strain and coronary heart disease with a meta-analysis of published and unpublished studies. METHODS: We used individual records from 13 European cohort studies (1985-2006) of men and women without coronary heart disease who were employed at time of baseline assessment. We measured job strain with questions from validated job-content and demand-control questionnaires. We extracted data in two stages such that acquisition and harmonisation of job strain measure and covariables occurred before linkage to records for coronary heart disease. We defined incident coronary heart disease as the first non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death. FINDINGS: 30?214 (15%) of 197?473 participants reported job strain. In 1·49 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 7·5 years [SD 1·7]), we recorded 2358 events of incident coronary heart disease. After adjustment for sex and age, the hazard ratio for job strain versus no job strain was 1·23 (95% CI 1·10-1·37). This effect estimate was higher in published (1·43, 1·15-1·77) than unpublished (1·16, 1·02-1·32) studies. Hazard ratios were likewise raised in analyses addressing reverse causality by exclusion of events of coronary heart disease that occurred in the first 3 years (1·31, 1·15-1·48) and 5 years (1·30, 1·13-1·50) of follow-up. We noted an association between job strain and coronary heart disease for sex, age groups, socioeconomic strata, and region, and after adjustments for socioeconomic status, and lifestyle and conventional risk factors. The population attributable risk for job strain was 3·4%. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that prevention of workplace stress might decrease disease incidence; however, this strategy would have a much smaller effect than would tackling of standard risk factors, such as smoking. FUNDING: Finnish Work Environment Fund, the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council for Working Life and Social Research, the German Social Accident Insurance, the Danish National Research Centre for the Working Environment, the BUPA Foundation, the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, the Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, and the US National Institutes of Health.

Strategies for Effective Management of Health and Safety in Confined Site Construction

The overall aim of this research is to identify and catalogue the numerous managerial strategies for effective management of health and safety on a confined, urban, construction site. A mixed methods methodology was adopted using interviews and focus group discussions on three selected case studies of confined construction sites. In addition to these, a questionnaire survey was used based on the findings from the interviews and the focus group discussions. The top five key strategies include (1) Employ safe system of work plans to mitigate personnel health and safety issues; (2) Inform personnel, before starting on-site, of the potential issues using site inductions; (3) Effective communication among site personnel; (4) Draft and implement an effective design site layout prior to starting on-site; and (5) Use of banksman (traffic co-ordinator) to segregate personnel from vehicular traffic. The construction sector is one of the leading industries in accident causation and with the continued development and regeneration of our urban centres, confined site construction is quickly becoming the norm - an environment which only fuels accident creation within the construction sector. This research aids on-site management that requires direction and assistance in the identification and implementation of key strategies for the management of health and safety, particularly in confined construction site environments.

Substrates modified by advanced glycation end-products cause dysfunction and death in retinal pericytes by reducing survival signals mediated by platelet-derived growth factor

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Premature death of retinal pericytes is a pathophysiological hallmark of diabetic retinopathy. Among the mechanisms proposed for pericyte death is exposure to AGE, which accumulate during diabetes. The current study used an in vitro model, whereby retinal pericytes were exposed to AGE-modified substrate and the mechanisms underlying pericyte death explored. METHODS: Pericytes were isolated from bovine retinal capillaries and propagated on AGE-modified basement membrane (BM) extract or non-modified native BM. The extent of AGE modification was analysed. Proliferative responses of retinal pericytes propagated on AGE-modified BM were investigated using a 5-bromo-2-deoxy-uridine-based assay. The effect of extrinsically added platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) isoforms on these proliferative responses was also analysed alongside mRNA expression of the PDGF receptors. Apoptotic death of retinal pericytes grown on AGE-modified BM was investigated using terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick end-labelling labelling, mitochondrial membrane depolarisation and by morphological assessment. We also measured both the ability of PDGF to reverse Akt dephosphorylation that was mediated by AGE-modified BM, and increased pericyte apoptosis. RESULTS: Retinal pericytes exposed to AGE-modified BM showed reduced proliferative responses in comparison to controls (p

Efficacy and safety of radium-223 dichloride in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and symptomatic bone metastases, with or without previous docetaxel use: A prespecified subgroup analysis from the randomised, double-blind, phase 3 ALSYMPCA trial

Background: Primary results from the phase 3 ALSYMPCA trial showed that radium-223 dichloride (radium-223), a targeted α-emitter, improved overall survival compared with placebo and was well tolerated in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and symptomatic bone metastases. We did a prespecified subgroup analysis from ALSYMPCA to assess the effect of previous docetaxel use on the efficacy and safety of radium-223. 

Methods: In the phase 3, randomised, double-blind ALSYMPCA trial, patients with symptomatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, at least two symptomatic bone metastases, no known visceral metastases, and who were receiving best standard of care were randomly assigned (2:1) via an interactive voice response system to receive six injections of radium-223 (50 kBq/kg intravenously) or matching placebo, with one injection given every 4 weeks. Patients had either received previous docetaxel treatment or were unsuitable for or declined docetaxel; previous docetaxel use (yes or no) was a trial stratification factor. We investigated the effect of previous docetaxel use on radium-223 treatment for the primary endpoint of overall survival, the main secondary efficacy endpoints, and safety. Efficacy analyses were done for the intention-to-treat population; safety analyses were done for the safety population. The trial has been completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00699751. 

Findings: Randomisation took place between June 12, 2008, and Feb 1, 2011. 526 (57%) of 921 randomly assigned patients had received previous docetaxel treatment (352 in the radium-223 group and 174 in the placebo group) and 395 (43%) had not (262 in the radium-223 group and 133 in the placebo group). Radium-223 prolonged median overall survival compared with placebo, irrespective of previous docetaxel use (previous docetaxel use, hazard ratio [HR] 0·70, 95% CI 0·56-0·88; p=0·002; no previous docetaxel use, HR 0·69, 0·52-0·92; p=0·01). The benefit of radium-223 compared with placebo was seen in both docetaxel subgroups for most main secondary efficacy endpoints; risk for time to time to first symptomatic skeletal event was reduced with radium-223 versus placebo in patients with previous docetaxel use, but the difference was not significant in those with no previous docetaxel use. 322 (62%) of 518 patients previously treated with docetaxel had grade 3-4 adverse events, compared with 205 (54%) of 383 patients without docetaxel. Patients who had previously been treated with docetaxel had a higher incidence of grade 3-4 thrombocytopenia with radium-223 than with placebo (31 [9%] of 347 patients vs five [3%] of 171 patients), whereas the incidence was similar between treatment groups among patients with no previous docetaxel use (seven [3%] of 253 patients vs one [1%] of 130 patients). The incidences of grade 3-4 anaemia and neutropenia were similar between the radium-223 and placebo groups within both docetaxel subgroups. 

Interpretation: Radium-223 is effective and well tolerated in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and symptomatic bone metastases, irrespective of previous docetaxel use. 

Funding: Algeta ASA and Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals.

Efficacy and safety of lumacaftor/ivacaftor combination therapy in patients with cystic fibrosis homozygous for Phe508del CFTR by pulmonary function subgroup

Background Lumacaftor/ivacaftor combination therapy demonstrated clinical benefits inpatients with cystic fibrosis homozygous for the Phe508del CFTR mutation.Pretreatment lung function is a confounding factor that potentially impacts the efficacyand safety of lumacaftor/ivacaftor therapy. Methods Two multinational, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallelgroupPhase 3 studies randomised patients to receive placebo or lumacaftor (600 mgonce daily [qd] or 400 mg every 12 hours [q12h]) in combination with ivacaftor (250 mgq12h) for 24 weeks. Prespecified analyses of pooled efficacy and safety data by lungfunction, as measured by percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second(ppFEV1), were performed for patients with baseline ppFEV1 <40 (n=81) and ≥40(n=1016) and screening ppFEV1 <70 (n=730) and ≥70 (n=342). These studies wereregistered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01807923 and NCT01807949). Findings The studies were conducted from April 2013 through April 2014.Improvements in the primary endpoint, absolute change from baseline at week 24 inppFEV1, were observed with both lumacaftor/ivacaftor doses in the subgroup withbaseline ppFEV1 <40 (least-squares mean difference versus placebo was 3∙7 and 3.3percentage points for lumacaftor 600 mg qd/ivacaftor 250 mg q12h and lumacaftor 400mg q12h/ivacaftor 250 mg q12h, respectively [p<0∙05] and in the subgroup with baselineppFEV1 ≥40 (3∙3 and 2∙8 percentage points, respectively [p<0∙001]). Similar absoluteimprovements versus placebo in ppFEV1 were observed in subgroups with screening 4ppFEV1 <70 (3∙3 and 3∙3 percentage points for lumacaftor 600 mg qd/ivacaftor 250 mgq12h and lumacaftor 400 mg q12h/ivacaftor 250 mg q12h, respectively [p<0∙001]) and≥70 (3∙3 and 1∙9 percentage points, respectively [p=0.002] and [p=0∙079]). Increases inBMI and reduction in number of pulmonary exacerbation events were observed in bothLUM/IVA dose groups vs placebo across all lung function subgroups. Treatment wasgenerally well tolerated, although the incidence of some respiratory adverse events washigher with active treatment than with placebo. Interpretation Lumacaftor/ivacaftor combination therapy benefits patients homozygousfor Phe508del CFTR who have varying degrees of lung function impairment. Funding Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated.

Applying the expanding photosphere and standardized candle methods to Type II-Plateau supernovae at cosmologically significant redshifts . The distance to SN 2013eq

Based on optical imaging and spectroscopy of the Type II-Plateau SN 2013eq, we present a comparative study of commonly used distance determination methods based on Type II supernovae. The occurrence of SN 2013eq in the Hubble flow (z = 0.041 ± 0.001) prompted us to investigate the implications of the difference between "angular" and "luminosity" distances within the framework of the expanding photosphere method (EPM) that relies upon a relation between flux and angular size to yield a distance. Following a re-derivation of the basic equations of the EPM for SNe at non-negligible redshifts, we conclude that the EPM results in an angular distance. The observed flux should be converted into the SN rest frame and the angular size, θ, has to be corrected by a factor of (1 + z)2. Alternatively, the EPM angular distance can be converted to a luminosity distance by implementing a modification of the angular size. For SN 2013eq, we find EPM luminosity distances of DL = 151 ± 18 Mpc and DL = 164 ± 20 Mpc by making use of different sets of dilution factors taken from the literature. Application of the standardized candle method for Type II-P SNe results in an independent luminosity distance estimate (DL = 168 ± 16 Mpc) that is consistent with the EPM estimate. Spectra of SN 2013eq are available in the Weizmann Interactive Supernova data REPository (WISeREP): http://wiserep.weizmann.ac.il