Testing the timing of radiocarbon-dated events between proxy archives

For interpreting past changes on a regional or global scale, the timings of proxy-inferred events are usually aligned with data from other locations. However, too often chronological uncertainties are ignored in proxy diagrams and multisite comparisons, making it possible for researchers to fall into the trap of sucking separate events into one illusionary event (or vice versa). Here we largely solve this "suck in and smear syndrome" for radiocarbon (14C) dated sequences. In a Bayesian framework, millions of plausible age-models are constructed to quantify the chronological uncertainties within and between proxy archives. We test the technique on replicated high-resolution 14C-dated peat cores deposited during the "Little Ice Age" (c. AD 1400-1900), a period characterized by abrupt climate changes and severe 14C calibration problems. Owing to internal variability in proxy data and uncertainties in age-models, these (and possibly many more) archives are not consistent in recording decadal climate change. Through explicit statistical tests of palaeoenvironmental hypotheses, we can move forward to systematic interpretations of proxy data. However, chronological uncertainties of non-annually resolved palaeoclimate records are too large for answering decadal timescale questions.

Stable hydrogen isotope ratios of lignin methoxyl groups as a palaeoclimate proxy

• Stable isotope ratios of organic compounds are valuable tools for determining the geographical origin, identity, authenticity or history of samples from a vast range of sources such as sediments, plants and animals, including humans. • Hydrogen isotope ratios (d2H values) of methoxyl groups in lignin from wood of trees grown in different geographical areas were measured using compound-specificpyrolysis isotope ratio mass spectrometry analysis. • Lignin methoxyl groups were depleted in 2H relative to both meteoric water andwhole wood. A high correlation (r2=0.91) was observed between the d2 H valuesof the methoxyl groups and meteoric water, with a relatively uniform fractionation of –216±19 recorded with respect to meteoric water over a range of d2H values from –110 in northern Norway to + 20‰ in Yemen. Thus, woods from northernlatitudes can be clearly distinguished from those from tropical regions. By contrast, the d2H values of bulk wood were only relatively poorly correlated (r 2 = 0.47) with those of meteoric water. • Measurement of the d 2H values of lignin methoxyl groups is potentially a powerful tool that could be of use not only in the constraint of the geographical origin of lignified material but also in paleoclimate, food authenticity and forensic investigations.

A multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation of the findspot of an Iron Age bog body from Oldcroghan, Co. Offaly, Ireland

In 2003, the remains of an Early Iron Age bog body, known as ‘Oldcroghan Man’, were recovered during the cutting of a drainage ditch in a bog in the Irish Midlands. Only some fingernails and a withe fragment remained undisturbed in situ in the drain face, providing the sole evidence for the original position of the body. A detailed reconstruction of the depositional context of the body has been undertaken through multi-proxy analyses of a peat monolith collected at the findspot. The palynological record shows that the surrounding area was the focus of intensive human activity during the Later Bronze Age, but was largely abandoned during the Bronze Age–Iron transition in the mid-first millennium BC. In the mid-4th century BC, a bog pool developed at the site, evidenced in the stratigraphic, plant macrofossil, testate amoebae and coleopteran records. Plant macrofossil and pollen analysis of peat samples associated with the fingernails suggests that the body was deposited in this pool most likely during the 3rd century BC. The absence of carrion beetle fauna points to complete submergence of the body within the pool. Deposition occurred shortly before or around the time that the surrounding area again became the focus of woodland clearance, as seen in the extended pollen record from the peat monolith. This period corresponds to the Early Iron Age in Ireland, during which renewed cultural connections with Britain and continental Europe can be seen in the archaeological record and widespread forest clearance is recorded in pollen records from across Ireland. The palaeoenvironmental results indicate, therefore, that the demise of Oldcroghan Man took place at a pivotal time of socio-economic and perhaps political change.

A 4500-year proxy climate record from peatlands in the North of Ireland: the identification of widespread summer ‘drought phases’?

Mid-to-late Holocene high-resolution testate amoebae-derived water table reconstructions from two peatlands in the North of Ireland are presented. The proxy climate records are dated and correlated using a combination of AMS 14C dating, spheroidal carbonaceous particles and tephrochronology. The reconstructions start prior to the Hekla 4 tephra isochron (2395–2279 BC) and thus span the last ~4500 years. The records are compiled by the process of tuning within chronological errors, standardisation and stacking. Comparisons are made to existing palaeoclimate records from peatlands in Northern Britain and Ireland and the compiled lake-level record for mid-latitude Europe. Four coherent dry phases are identified in the records at ca 1150–800 BC, 320 BC–AD 150, AD 250–470 and AD 1850–2000. Recent research has shown that peat-derived water table reconstructions reflect summer water deficit and therefore the dry phases are interpreted as periods with a higher frequency and/or greater magnitudes of summer drought. These ‘drought phases’ occur during periods of relatively low 14C production, which may add support to the hypothesis of persistent solar forcing of climate change during the Holocene. Any relationship with the North Atlantic stacked drift ice record is less clear. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Peat multi-proxy data from Mannikjarve bog as indicators of late Holocene climate changes in Estonia

As part of a wider project on European climate change over the past 4500 years, a 4.5-m peat core was taken from a lawn microform on Mannikjarve bog, Estonia. Several methods were used to yield proxy-climate data: (i) a quadrat and leaf-count method for plant macrofossil data, (ii) testate amoebae analysis, and (iii) colorimetric determination of peat humification. These data are provided with an exceptionally high resolution and precise chronology. Changes in bog surface wetness were inferred using Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and zonation of macrofossil data, particularly concerning the occurrence of Sphagnum balticum, and a transfer function for water-table depth for testate amoebae data. Based on the results, periods of high bog surface wetness appear to have occurred at c. 3100, 3010-2990, 2300, 1750-1610, 1510, 14 10, 1110, 540 and 3 10 cal. yr BP, during four longer periods between c. 3170 and 2850 cal. yr BP, 2450 and 2000 cal. yr BP, 1770 and 1530 cal. yr BP and in the period from 880 cal. yr BP until the present. In the period between 1770 and 1530 cal. yr BP. the extension or initiation of a hollow microtope occurred, which corresponds with other research results from Mannikjarve bog. This and other changes towards increasing bog surface wetness may be the responses to colder temperatures and the predominance of a more continental climate in the region, which favoured the development of bog microdepressions and a complex bog microtopography. Located in the border zone of oceanic and continental climatic sectors, in an area almost without land uplift, this study site may provide valuable information about changes in palaeohydrological and palaeoclimatological conditions in the northern parts of the eastern Baltic Sea region.

Random walk simulations of fossil proxy data

A wealth of palaeoecological studies (e.g. pollen, diatoms, chironomids and macrofossils from deposits such as lakes or bogs) have revealed major as well as more subtle ecosystem changes over decadal to multimillennial timescales. Such ecosystem changes are usually assumed to have been forced by specific environmental changes. Here, we test if the observed changes in palaeoecological records may be reproduced by random simulations, and we find that simple procedures generate abrupt events, long-term trends, quasi-cyclic behaviour, extinctions and immigrations. Our results highlight the importance of replicated and multiproxy data for reliable reconstructions of past climate and environmental changes.

Globally synchronous climate change 2800 years ago: Proxy data from peat in South America

Initial findings from high-latitude ice-cores implied a relatively unvarying Holocene climate, in contrast to the major climate swings in the preceding late-Pleistocene. However, several climate archives from low latitudes imply a less than equable Holocene climate, as do recent studies on peat bogs in mainland north-west Europe, which indicate an abrupt climate cooling 2800 years ago, with parallels claimed in a range of climate archives elsewhere. A hypothesis that this claimed climate shift was global, and caused by reduced solar activity, has recently been disputed. Until now, no directly comparable data were available from the southern hemisphere to help resolve the dispute. Building on investigations of the vegetation history of an extensive mire in the Valle de Andorra, Tierra del Fuego, we took a further peat core from the bog to generate a high-resolution climate history through the use of determination of peat hurnification and quantitative leaf-count plant macrofossil analysis. Here, we present the new proxy-climate data from the bog in South America. The data are directly comparable with those in Europe, as they were produced using identical laboratory methods. They show that there was a major climate perturbation at the same time as in northwest European bogs. Its timinia, nature and apparent global synchronicity lend support to the notion of solar forcing of past climate change, amplified by oceanic circulation. This finding of a similar response simultaneously in both hemispheres may help validate and improve global climate models. That reduced solar activity might cause a global climatic change suggests that attention be paid also to consideration of any global climate response to increases in solar activity. This has implications for interpreting the relative contribution of climate drivers of recent 'global warming'. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.