Addressing Bed Costs for the Elderly: A New Methodology for Modelling Patient Outcomes and Length of Stay

The proportion of elderly in the population has dramatically increased and will continue to do so for at least the next 50 years. Medical resources throughout the world are feeling the added strain of the increasing proportion of elderly in the population. The effective care of elderly patients in hospitals may be enhanced by accurately modelling the length of stay of the patients in hospital and the associated costs involved. This paper examines previously developed models for patient length of stay in hospital and describes the recently developed conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph) to model patient duration of stay in relation to explanatory patient variables. The Clinics data set was used to demonstrate the C-Ph methodology. The resulting model highlighted a strong relationship between Barthel grade, patient outcome and length of stay showing various groups of patient behaviour. The patients who stay in hospital for a very long time are usually those that consume the largest amount of hospital resources. These have been identified as the patients whose resulting outcome is transfer. Overall, the majority of transfer patients spend a considerably longer period of time in hospital compared to patients who die or are discharged home. The C-Ph model has the potential for considering costs where different costs are attached to the various phases or subgroups of patients and the anticipated cost of care estimated in advance. It is hoped that such a method will lead to the successful identification of the most cost effective case-mix management of the hospital ward.

Modelling the flow of congestive heart failure patients through a hospital system

The number of hospital admissions in England due to heart failure is projected to increase by over 50% during the next 25 years. This will incur greater pressures on hospital managers to allocate resources in an effective manner. A reliable indicator for measuring the quantity of resources consumed by hospital patients is their length of stay (LOS) in care. This paper proposes modelling the length of time heart failure patients spend in hospital using a special type of Markov model, where the flow of patients through hospital can be thought of as consisting of three stages of care—short-, medium- and longer-term care. If it is assumed that new admissions into the ward are replacements for discharges, such a model may be used to investigate the case-mix of patients in hospital and the expected patient turnover during some specified period of time. An example is illustrated by considering hospital admissions to a Belfast hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2000 and 2004.

Identification of tone duration, line length and letter position: An experimental approach to timing and working memory deficits in schizophrenia.

Patients with schizophrenia display numerous cognitive deficits, including problems in working memory, time estimation, and absolute identification of stimuli. Research in these fields has traditionally been conducted independently. We examined these cognitive processes using tasks that are structurally similar and that yield rich error data. Relative to healthy control participants (n = 20), patients with schizophrenia (n = 20) were impaired on a duration identification task and a probed-recall memory task but not on a line-length identification task. These findings do not support the notion of a global impairment in absolute identification in schizophrenia. However, the authors suggest that some aspect of temporal information processing is indeed disturbed in schizophrenia.

Polyploid measles virus with hexameric genome length

Particles of most virus species accurately package a single genome, but there are indications that the pleomorphic particles of parainfluenza viruses incorporate multiple genomes. We characterized a stable measles virus mutant that efficiently packages at least two genomes. The first genome is recombinant and codes for a defective attachment protein with an appended domain interfering with fusion-support function. The second has one adenosine insertion in a purine run that interrupts translation of the appended domain and restores function. In that genome, a one base deletion in a different purine run abolishes polymerase synthesis, but restores hexameric genome length, thus ensuring accurate RNA encapsidation, which is necessary for efficient replication. Thus, the two genomes are complementary. The infection kinetics of this mutant indicate that packaging of multiple genomes does not negatively affect growth. We also show that polyploid particles are produced in standard infections at no expense to infectivity. Our results illustrate how the particles of parainfluenza viruses efficiently accommodate cargoes of different volume, and suggest a mechanism by which segmented genomes may have evolved.

Surface plasmon polariton propagation length: A direct comparison using photon scanning tunneling microscopy and attenuated total reflection

The propagation of surface plasmon polaritons (SPP's) is studied using a photon scanning tunneling microscope (PSTM) and conventional attenuated total reflection (ATR). The PSTM experiment uses localized (focused beam) launching or SPP's at a wavelength of 632.8 nm. Propagation of the SPP is observed as an exponentially decaying tail beyond the launch site acid the 1/e propagation length is measured directly for a series of Ag films of different thicknesses. The ATR measurements are used to characterize the thin film optical and thickness parameters, revealing, notably, the presence of a contaminating adlayer of Ag2S of typical dielectric function, 8.7 + i2.7, and thickness 1-2 nm. Values of the SPP propagation length, based on the ATR- derived film parameters used in the four-media implicit SPP dispersion relation, show very good agreement with those based on the PSTM images for the case of undercoupled or optimally coupled SPP modes. The observed propagation lengths are quantitatively analyzed taking explicit account of additional intrinsic damping due to the growth of the Ag2S layer and of reradiation of the SPP back into the prism outside the launch site. Finally, the PSTM images show excellent SPP beam confinement in the original propagation direction.