A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost modelling is original and relies on a genetic-causal method where the drivers of each element of cost are identified relative to the process capability. The cost model is then extended to life cycle costing by computing the Direct Operating Cost as a function of acquisition cost and fuel burn, and coupled with a semi-empirical numerical analysis using Engineering Sciences Data Unit reference data to model the structural integrity of the fuselage shell with regard to material failure and various modes of buckling. The main finding of the paper is that the traditional minimum weight condition is a dated and sub-optimal approach to airframe structural design.

Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process

Radiocarbon dating is routinely used in paleoecology to build chronolo- gies of lake and peat sediments, aiming at inferring a model that would relate the sediment depth with its age. We present a new approach for chronology building (called “Bacon”) that has received enthusiastic attention by paleoecologists. Our methodology is based on controlling core accumulation rates using a gamma autoregressive semiparametric model with an arbitrary number of subdivisions along the sediment. Using prior knowledge about accumulation rates is crucial and informative priors are routinely used. Since many sediment cores are currently analyzed, using different data sets and prior distributions, a robust (adaptive) MCMC is very useful. We use the t-walk (Christen and Fox, 2010), a self adjusting, robust MCMC sampling algorithm, that works acceptably well in many situations. Outliers are also addressed using a recent approach that considers a Student-t model for radiocarbon data. Two examples are presented here, that of a peat core and a core from a lake, and our results are compared with other approaches.

Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

Site formation processes in caves: the Holocene sediments of the Haua Fteah, Cyrenaica, Libya.

Caves have yielded some of the most globally important archaeological sequences, but often their interpretation has suffered from assumptions about cave sedimentary processes. Caves contain distinctive sedimentary environments: this has major implications for the understanding of contained archaeological materials. This paper describes and analyses the Holocene sediments in the Haua Fteah, a sequence regarded as essentially continuous by the original excavator. 50 years after it was first excavated, the Haua’s Epipalaeolithic to post-Classical chronological range and rich finds make it still the key Holocene archaeological site in North Africa. The reassessment shows, however, that the sequence is strongly discontinuous and this has major implications for the reinterpretation of the site, as the highlyresolved archaeological record is thus likely to reflect a series of brief occupations, rather than continuous human activity. As with many caves, the sedimentary record in the Haua Fteah is an extremely sensitive indicator of environments and processes in the wider landscape. Secure understanding of sedimentary process, from analysis of the highly individual records found in caves, is essential for full understanding of their contained archaeology.

Memory-keeping effects and forgetfulness in the dynamics of a qubit coupled to a spin chain

Using recently proposed measures for non-Markovianity [H.-P. Breuer, E. M. Laine, and J. Piilo, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 210401 (2009)], we study the dynamics of a qubit coupled to a spin environment via an energy-exchange mechanism. We show the existence of a point, in the parameter space of the system, where the qubit dynamics is effectively Markovian and that such a point separates two regions with completely different dynamical behaviors. Indeed, our study demonstrates that the qubit evolution can in principle be tuned from a perfectly forgetful one to a deep non-Markovian regime where the qubit is strongly affected by the dynamical backaction of the environmental spins. By means of a theoretical quantum process tomography analysis, we provide a complete and intuitive characterization of the qubit channel.

OPTIMIZATION OF THE SLOW-MODE PLASMON POLARITON IN LIGHT-EMITTING TUNNEL-JUNCTIONS

Light emitted from metal/oxide/metal tunnel junctions can originate from the slow-mode surface plasmon polariton supported in the oxide interface region. The effective radiative decay of this mode is constrained by competition with heavy intrinsic damping and by the need to scatter from very small scale surface roughness; the latter requirement arises from the mode's low phase velocity and the usual momentum conservation condition in the scattering process. Computational analysis of conventional devices shows that the desirable goals of decreased intrinsic damping and increased phase velocity are influenced, in order of priority, by the thickness and dielectric function of the oxide layer, the type of metal chosen for each conducting electrode, and temperature. Realizable devices supporting an optimized slow-mode plasmon polariton are suggested. Essentially these consist of thin metal electrodes separated by a dielectric layer which acts as a very thin (a few nm) electron tunneling barrier but a relatively thick (several 10's of nm) optically lossless region. (C) 1995 American Institute of Physics.

Microbial analysis of soil and groundwater from a gasworks site and comparison to a sequenced biological reactive barrier remediation process (SEREBAR)

Aims: To investigate the distribution of a polymicrobial community of biodegradative bacteria in (i) soil and groundwater at a former manufactured gas plant (FMGP) site and (ii) in a novel SEquential REactive BARrier (SEREBAR) bioremediation process designed to bioremediate the contaminated groundwater. Methods and Results: Culture-dependent and culture-independent analyses using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the detection of 16S ribosomal RNA gene and naphthalene dioxygenase (NDO) genes of free-living (planktonic groundwater) and attached (soil biofilm) samples from across the site and from the SEREBAR process was applied. Naphthalene arising from groundwater was effectively degraded early in the process and the microbiological analysis indicated a dominant role for Pseudomonas and Comamonas in its degradation. The microbial communities appeared highly complex and diverse across both the sites and in the SEREBAR process. An increased population of naphthalene degraders was associated with naphthalene removal. Conclusion: The distribution of micro-organisms in general and naphthalene degraders across the site was highly heterogeneous. Comparisons made between areas contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and those not contaminated, revealed differences in the microbial community profile. The likelihood of noncultured bacteria being dominant in mediating naphthalene removal was evident. Significance and Impact of the Study: This work further emphasizes the importance of both traditional and molecular-based tools in determining the microbial ecology of contaminated sites and highlights the role of noncultured bacteria in the process.

Experimental Investigation of Stretch Blow Molding, Part 2: Analysis of Process Variables, Blowing Kinematics, and Bottle Properties

The work presented in this paper takes advantage of newly developed instrumentation suitable for in process monitoring of an industrial stretch blow molding machine. The instrumentation provides blowing pressure and stretch rod force histories along with the kinematics of polymer contact with the mould wall. A Design of Experiments pattern was used to qualitatively relate machine inputs with these process parameters and the thickness distribution of stretch blow molded PET (polyethylene terephtalate) bottles. Material slippage at the mold wall and thickness distribution is also discussed in relation to machine inputs. The key process indicators defined have great potential for use in a closed loop process control system and for validation of process simulations.

Fault Location on a Distribution Network Using a Decentralised Analysis Process

A reduction in the time required to locate and restore faults on a utility's distribution network improves the customer minutes lost (CML) measurement and hence brings direct cost savings to the operating company. The traditional approach to fault location involves fault impedance determination from high volume waveform files dispatched across a communications channel to a central location for processing and analysis. This paper examines an alternative scheme where data processing is undertaken locally within a recording instrument thus reducing the volume of data to be transmitted. Processed event fault reports may be emailed to relevant operational staff for the timely repair and restoration of the line.

Numerical modelling of laboratory tests for TBM cutter indentation process analysis

Considering that TBMs are nowadays used for long Trans-Alpine tunnels, the
understanding of rock breaking and chipping due to TBM cutter disks mechanism, for deep tunnelling operations, becomes very interesting. In this paper, the results from carried out laboratory tests that simulate the disk cutter action at the rock tunnel face by means of an indentation tool, acting on a rock
specimen with proper size, and the related three-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical modelling are proposed. The developed numerical models simulate the different test conditions (applied load, boundary conditions) allowing the analysis of the stresses distributions along possible breaking planes.
The influence of a confinement-free area on one side of the specimen, simulating the formation of a groove near the tool, is pointed out.
The obtained results from numerical modelling put in evidence a satisfactory agreement with the experimental observations.

Finite element analysis of drilling of titanium alloy

Drilling is a highly demanding machining process due to complex tool geometry and the progressive material failure on the work piece. In this study, a 3D model is developed using commercial finite element software ABAQUS/Explicit. The proposed model simulates the drilling process by taking into account of the damage initiation and evolution of the work piece material, a contact model at the interface between drill bit and work piece and the process parameters. The results of the simulations demonstrate the effects of machining parameters on drilling. The results also confirm the capability and advantage of FE simulation of the drilling process. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.