Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.

Huddling in groups leads to daily energy savings in free-living African Four-Striped Grass Mice, Rhabdomys pumilio

1. Free-living animals make complex decisions associated with optimizing energy and nutrient intake. In environments where ambient temperatures fall below the thermoneutral zone, homeotherms must choose whether or not to forage, how long and what to forage for, and whether or not to perform activities that conserve energy.

Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000

Genuine Savings (GS), also known as ‘net adjusted savings’, is a composite indicator of the sustainability of economic development. Genuine Savings reflects year-on-year changes in the total wealth or capital of a country, including net investment in produced capita, investment in human capital, depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution. A negative Genuine Savings rate suggests that the stock of national wealth is declining and that future utility must be less than current utility, indicating that economic development is non-sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999). We make use of data over a 150 year period to examine the relationship between Genuine Savings and a number of indicators of well-being over time, and compare the relative changes in human, produced, and components of natural capital over the period. Overall, we find that the magnitude of genuine savings is positively related to changes in future consumption, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. However, the relationships between genuine savings and infant mortality or average heights are less clear.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.

‘Harmonising the precaution out of the precautionary principle? The need for maintaining flexibility and an interpretative role’

The precautionary principle has the potential to act as a valuable tool in food law. It operates in areas of scientific uncertainty, calling for protective measures where there are potential threats to human health (or the environment). However, the manner of the principle’s incorporation and implementation within legislation are key to its effectiveness and general legitimacy. Specific considerations include the role and nature of risk assessments, assessors, sources of evidence, divergent opinions, risk communication, other legitimate factors and the weighting of interests. However, more fundamentally, the crystallisation of approaches and removal of all flexibility would undermine the principle’s central tenets. Firstly, principles crucially play a guiding and interpretative role. Secondly, reflexive modernisation and continuing scientific uncertainty call for the precautionary principle’s continued application – precautionary measures do not end the precautionary principle’s relevance. This can be partially achieved through the legislation so as to facilitate later precautionary measures, e.g. through temporary authorisations, derogations and safeguard clauses. However, crucially, it requires that the legislation also be interpreted in light of the precautionary principle. This paper investigates the logic behind the Court of Justice of the EU’s judgments and the circumstances that enable or deter the Court in taking, or permitting, stronger precautionary approaches. Although apparently inconsistent, a number of contextual factors including the legislative provisions and actors involved influence the judgments substantially. The analysis provides insight into improving the principle’s incorporation to facilitate its continued application and maintenance of flexibility, whilst bearing in mind the general desirability of objectivity and legal certainty.

A Sustainable Century? Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000

This chapter traces the long-run development of Genuine Savings (GS) using a panel of eleven countries during the twentieth century. This panel covers a number of developed countries (Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, the US, and Australia) as well as a set of resource-abundant countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico). These countries represent approximately 50 percent of the world’s output in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1950, and include large economies and small open economies, and resource-rich and resource-scarce countries, thus allowing us to compare their historical experiences. Components of GS considered include physical and human capital as well as resource extraction and pollution damages. Generally, we find evidence of positive GS over the course of the twentieth century, although the two World Wars and the Great Depression left considerable marks. Also, we found striking differences between Latin American and developed countries when Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is included; this could be a signal of natural resource curse or technological gaps unnoticed in previous works.

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in foods: current evidence and potential consequences

Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the cause of Johne's disease in cattle, sheep and goats, may have a role in Crohn's disease in humans. Animals with Johne's disease shed viable MAP in their milk and faeces. The organism is also widely disseminated in the blood and tissues of infected animals. Consequently, transmission to humans via consumption of animal-derived foods is a distinct possibility. Milk, other dairy products, beef and water have been identified as possible food vehicles of transmission. To date, viable MAP has been cultured from raw cows', sheep and goats' milk, retail pasteurized cows' milk, and some retail cheeses in several countries during recent studies. MAP has not been isolated from retail beef to date, although limited testing has been carried out. The public health consequences, if any, of low numbers of viable MAP being periodically consumed by susceptible individuals are uncertain. An association between MAP and Crohn's disease is not proven, but neither can it be discounted on the basis of current evidence. A precautionary approach is therefore warranted in relation to the existence of MAP in food, and action is needed to reduce the prevalence of Johne's disease in the cattle population worldwide, in order to minimize public exposure to this potential human pathogen.

Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial of Withdrawal of Inhaled Corticosteroids in Cystic Fibrosis

Rationale: Lung inflammation and injury is critical in cystic fibrosis. An ideal antiinflammatory agent has not been identified but inhaled corticosteroids are widely used despite lack of evidence.

Objectives: To test the safety of withdrawal of inhaled corticosteroids with the hypothesis this would not be associated with an earlier onset of acute chest exacerbations.

Methods: Multicenter randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial in 18 pediatric and adult UK centers. Eligibility criteria included age > 6.0 yr, FEV1 ? 40% predicted, and corticosteroid use > 3 mo. During the 2-mo run-in period, all patients received fluticasone; they then took either fluticasone or placebo for 6 mo.

Measurements and Main Results: Fluticasone group: n = 84, median age 14.6 yr, mean (SD) FEV1 76% (18); placebo group: n = 87, median age 15.8 yr, mean (SD) FEV1 76% (18). There was no difference in time to first exacerbation (primary outcome) with hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.07 (0.68 to 1.70) for fluticasone versus placebo. There was no effect of age, atopy, corticosteroid dose, FEV1, or Pseudomonas aeruginosa status. There was no change in lung function or differences in antibiotic or rescue bronchodilator use. Fewer patients in the fluticasone group withdrew from the study due to lung-related adverse events (9 vs. 15%); with a relative risk (95% confidence interval) of 0.59 (0.23–1.48) fluticasone versus placebo.

Conclusions: In this study population (applicable to 40% of patients with cystic fibrosis in the UK), it appears safe to consider stopping inhaled corticosteroids. Potential advantages will be to reduce the drug burden on patients, reduce adverse effects, and make financial savings.

Microcontroller based double beam modulation system for atomic scattering experiments

Double beam modulation is widely used in atomic collision experiments in the case where the noise arising froth each of the beams exceeds the measured signal. A method for minimizing the statistical uncertainty in a measured signal in a given time period is discussed, and a flexible modulation and counting system based on a low cost PIC microcontroller is described. This device is capable of modifying the acquisition parameters in real time during the course of an experimental run. It is shown that typical savings in data acquisition time of approximately 30% can be achieved using this optimized modulation scheme.

The energetics of huddling in two species of mole-rat (Rodentia: Bathyergidae)

Small rodents with a large surf ace-area-to-volume ratio and a high thermal conductance are likely to experience conditions where they have to expend large: amounts of energy in order to maintain a constant body temperature at low ambient temperatures. The survival of small rodents is thus dependent on their ability to reduce heat loss and increase heat production at low ambient temperatures. Two such animals are the social subterranean rodents Cryptomys damarensis (the Damaraland mole-rat) and Cryptomys hottentotus natalensis (the Natal mole-rat). This study examined the energy savings associated with huddling as a behavioural thermoregulatory mechanism to conserve energy in both these species. Individual oxygen consumption (VO2) was measured in groups ranging in size from one to 15 huddling animals for both species at ambient temperatures of 14, 18, 22, 26 and 30 degrees C. Savings in energy (VO2) were then compared between the two species. Significant differences in VO2 (p