Handling uncertainty in a medical study of dietary intake during pregnancy

This paper is concerned with handling uncertainty as part of the analysis of data from a medical study. The study is investigating connections between the birth weight of babies and the dietary intake of their mothers. Bayesian belief networks were used in the analysis. Their perceived benefits include (i) an ability to represent the evidence emerging from the evolving study, dealing effectively with the inherent uncertainty involved; (ii) providing a way of representing evidence graphically to facilitate analysis and communication with clinicians; (iii) helping in the exploration of the data to reveal undiscovered knowledge; and (iv) providing a means of developing an expert system application.

Knowledge-based risk assessment under uncertainty in engineering projects

In this paper we describe how an evidential-reasoner can be used as a component of risk assessment of engineering projects using a direct way of reasoning. Guan & Bell (1991) introduced this method by using the mass functions to express rule strengths. Mass functions are also used to express data strengths. The data and rule strengths are combined to get a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of our reasoning process. Then we combine the prior mass and the evidence from the different rules; i.e., the second half of the reasoning process. Finally, belief intervals are calculated to help in identifying the risks. We apply our evidential-reasoner on an engineering project and the results demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of this system in this environment.

Species boundaries and phylogenetic relationships within the green algal genus Codium (Bryopsidales) based on plastid DNA sequences

Despite the potential model role of the green algal genus Codium for studies of marine speciation and evolution, there have been difficulties with species delimitation and a molecular phylogenetic framework was lacking. In the present study, 74 evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) are delimited using 227 rbcL exon 1 sequences obtained from specimens collected throughout the genus' range. Several morpho-species were shown to be poorly defined, with some clearly in need of lumping and others containing pseudo-cryptic diversity. A phylogenetic hypothesis of 72 Codium ESUs is inferred from rbcL exon 1 and rps3-rp/16 sequence data using a conventional nucleotide substitution model (GTR + Gamma + I), a codon position model and a covariotide (covarion) model, and the fit of a multitude of substitution models and alignment partitioning strategies to the sequence data is reported. Molecular clock tree rooting was carried out because out-group rooting was probably affected by phylogenetic bias. Several aspects of the evolution of morphological features of Codium are discussed and the inferred phylogenetic hypothesis is used as a framework to study the biogeography of the genus, both at a global scale and within the Indian Ocean. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.