Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks

In this paper, we extend the heterogeneous panel data stationarity test of Hadri [Econometrics Journal, Vol. 3 (2000) pp. 148–161] to the cases where breaks are taken into account. Four models with different patterns of breaks under the null hypothesis are specified. Two of the models have been already proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al.[Econometrics Journal,Vol. 8 (2005) pp. 159–175]. The moments of the statistics corresponding to the four models are derived in closed form via characteristic functions.We also provide the exact moments of a modified statistic that do not asymptotically depend on the location of the break point under the null hypothesis. The cases where the break point is unknown are also considered. For the model with breaks in the level and no time trend and for the model with breaks in the level and in the time trend, Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Econometrics Journal, Vol. 8 (2005) pp. 159–175]showed that the number of breaks and their positions may be allowed to differ acrossindividuals for cases with known and unknown breaks. Their results can easily be extended to the proposed modified statistic. The asymptotic distributions of all the statistics proposed are derived under the null hypothesis and are shown to be normally distributed. We show by simulations that our suggested tests have in general good performance in finite samples except the modified test. In an empirical application to the consumer prices of 22 OECD countries during the period from 1953 to 2003, we found evidence of stationarity once a structural break and cross-sectional dependence are accommodated.

Novel Panel Cointegration Tests Emending for Cross-Section Dependence with N Fixed

In this paper, we propose new cointegration tests for single equations and panels. Inboth cases, the asymptotic distributions of the tests, which are derived with N fixed andT → ∞, are shown to be standard normals. The effects of serial correlation and crosssectionaldependence are mopped out via long-run variances. An effective bias correctionis derived which is shown to work well in finite samples; particularly when N is smallerthan T. Our panel tests are robust to possible cointegration across units.

ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

PANEL DATA UNIT ROOT TEST WITH FIXED TIME DIMENSION

The consideration of the limit theory in which T is fixed and N is allowed to go to infinity improves the finite-sample properties of the tests and avoids the imposition of the relative rates at which T and N go to infinity.

Synergy Between an Improved Covariate Unit Root Test and Cross-sectionally Dependent Panel Data Unit Root Tests, with two Applications

This paper proposes the use of an improved covariate unit root test which exploits the cross-sectional dependence information when the panel data null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected. More explicitly, to increase the power of the test, we suggest the utilization of more than one covariate and offer several ways to select the ‘best’ covariates from the set of potential covariates represented by the individuals in the panel. Employing our methods, we investigate the Prebish-Singer hypothesis for nine commodity prices. Our results show that this hypothesis holds for all but the price of petroleum.

TESTING FOR STATIONARITY IN HETEROGENEOUS PANEL DATA IN THE CASE OF MODEL MISSPECIFICATION

This paper investigates the performance of the tests proposed by Hadri and by Hadri and Larsson for testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data under model misspecification. The panel tests are based on the well known KPSS test (cf. Kwiatkowski et al.) which considers two models: stationarity around a deterministic level and stationarity around a deterministic trend. There is no study, as far as we know, on the statistical properties of the test when the wrong model is used. We also consider the case of the simultaneous presence of the two types of models in a panel. We employ two asymptotics: joint asymptotic, T, N -> infinity simultaneously, and T fixed and N allowed to grow indefinitely. We use Monte Carlo experiments to investigate the effects of misspecification in sample sizes usually used in practice. The results indicate that the assumption that T is fixed rather than asymptotic leads to tests that have less size distortions, particularly for relatively small T with large N panels (micro-panels) than the tests derived under the joint asymptotics. We also find that choosing a deterministic trend when a deterministic level is true does not significantly affect the properties of the test. But, choosing a deterministic level when a deterministic trend is true leads to extreme over-rejections. Therefore, when unsure about which model has generated the data, it is suggested to use the model with a trend. We also propose a new statistic for testing for stationarity in mixed panel data where the mixture is known. The performance of this new test is very good for both cases of T asymptotic and T fixed. The statistic for T asymptotic is slightly undersized when T is very small (

How (In)Consistent is the Court of Justice in the Application of the Market Access Test?”

Invited panel speaker at a Jean Monnet Chair funded research workshop organised by the Europa Institute, School of Law, University of Edinburgh (9 December 2011), http://www.pol.ed.ac.uk/research_themes/index/jean_monnet_centre_of_excellence/principles_of_market_access_workshop

Testing the Prebish-Singer hypothesis using second-generation panel data stationarity tests with a break

In this paper, we test the Prebish-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which states that real commodity prices decline in the long run, using two recent powerful panel data stationarity tests accounting for cross-sectional dependence and a structural break. We find that the hypothesis cannot be rejected for most commodities other than oil.

Postbuckling behaviour of a blade-stiffened composite panel loaded in uniaxial compression

The postbuckling behaviour of a panel with blade-stiffeners incorporating tapered flanges was experimentally investigated. A new failure mechanism was identified for this particular type of stiffener. Failure was initiated by mid-plane delamination at the free edge of the postbuckled stiffener web at a node-line. This was consistent with an interlaminar shear stress failure and was calculated from strain gauge measurements using an approximate analysis based on lamination theory and incorporating edge effects. The critical shear stress was found to agree well with the shear strength obtained from a three-point bending test of the web laminate. 

Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

Large scale test of a novel back-pass non-perforated unglazed solar air collector

This paper describes large scale tests conducted on a novel unglazed solar air collector system. The proposed system, referred to as a back-pass solar collector (BPSC), has on-site installation and aesthetic advantages over conventional unglazed transpired solar collectors (UTSC) as it is fully integrated within a standard insulated wall panel. This paper presents the results obtained from monitoring a BPSC wall panel over one year. Measurements of temperature, wind velocity and solar irradiance were taken at multiple air mass flow rates. It is shown that the length of the collector cavities has a direct impact on the efficiency of the system. It is also shown that beyond a height-to-flow ratio of 0.023m/m³/hr/m², no additional heat output is obtained by increasing the collector height for the experimental setup in this study, but these numbers would obviously be different if the experimental setup or test environment (e.g. location and climate) change. An equation for predicting the temperature rise of the BPSC is proposed.

BRAF mutation testing algorithm for vemurafenib treatment in melanoma: recommendations from an expert panel.

The incidence of melanoma has increased rapidly over the past 30 years, and the disease is now the sixth most common cancer among men and women in the U.K. Many patients are diagnosed with or develop metastatic disease, and survival is substantially reduced in these patients. Mutations in the BRAF gene have been identified as key drivers of melanoma cells and are found in around 50% of cutaneous melanomas. Vemurafenib (Zelboraf(®) ; Roche Molecular Systems Inc., Pleasanton, CA, U.S.A.) is the first licensed inhibitor of mutated BRAF, and offers a new first-line option for patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma who harbour BRAF mutations. Vemurafenib was developed in conjunction with a companion diagnostic, the cobas(®) 4800 BRAF V600 Mutation Test. The purpose of this paper is to make evidence-based recommendations to facilitate the implementation of BRAF mutation testing and targeted therapy in patients with metastatic melanoma in the U.K. The recommendations are the result of a meeting of an expert panel and have been reviewed by melanoma specialists and representatives of the National Cancer Research Network Clinical Study Group on behalf of the wider melanoma community. This article is intended to be a starting point for practical advice and recommendations, which will no doubt be updated as we gain further experience in personalizing therapy for patients with melanoma.

Refining the diagnosis and EGFR status of non-small cell lung carcinoma in biopsy and cytologic material, using a panel of mucin staining, TTF-1, cytokeratin 5/6, and P63, and EGFR mutation analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The dichotomization of non-small cell carcinoma (NSCLC) subtype into squamous (SQCC) and adenocarcinoma (ADC) has become important in recent years and is increasingly required with regard to management. The aim of this study was to determine the utility of a panel of commercially available antibodies in refining the diagnosis on small biopsies and also to determine whether cytologic material is suitable for somatic EGFR genotyping in a prospectively analyzed series of patients undergoing investigation for suspected lung cancer. METHODS: Thirty-two consecutive cases of NSCLC were first tested using a panel comprising cytokeratin 5/6, P63, thyroid transcription factor-1, 34betaE12, and a D-PAS stain for mucin, to determine their value in refining diagnosis of NSCLC. After this test phase, two further pathologists independently reviewed the cases using a refined panel that excluded 34betaE12 because of its low specificity for SQCC, and refinement of diagnosis and concordance were assessed. Ten cases of ADC, including eight derived from cytologic samples, were sent for EGFR mutation analysis. RESULTS: There was refinement of diagnosis in 65% of cases of NSCLC to either SQCC or ADC in the test phase. This included 10 of 13 cases where cell pellets had been prepared from transbronchial needle aspirates. Validation by two further pathologists with varying expertise in lung pathology confirmed increased refinement and concordance of diagnosis. All samples were adequate for analysis, and they all showed a wild-type EGFR genotype. CONCLUSION: A panel comprising cytokeratin 5/6, P63, thyroid transcription factor-1, and a D-PAS stain for mucin increases diagnostic accuracy and agreement between pathologists when faced with refining a diagnosis of NSCLC to SQCC or ADC. These small samples, even cell pellets derived from transbronchial needle aspirates, seem to be adequate for EGFR mutation analysis.