Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process

Radiocarbon dating is routinely used in paleoecology to build chronolo- gies of lake and peat sediments, aiming at inferring a model that would relate the sediment depth with its age. We present a new approach for chronology building (called “Bacon”) that has received enthusiastic attention by paleoecologists. Our methodology is based on controlling core accumulation rates using a gamma autoregressive semiparametric model with an arbitrary number of subdivisions along the sediment. Using prior knowledge about accumulation rates is crucial and informative priors are routinely used. Since many sediment cores are currently analyzed, using different data sets and prior distributions, a robust (adaptive) MCMC is very useful. We use the t-walk (Christen and Fox, 2010), a self adjusting, robust MCMC sampling algorithm, that works acceptably well in many situations. Outliers are also addressed using a recent approach that considers a Student-t model for radiocarbon data. Two examples are presented here, that of a peat core and a core from a lake, and our results are compared with other approaches.

Permafrost response to last interglacial warming: field evidence from non-glaciated Yukon and Alaska

We present stratigraphic observations from three sites in eastern Beringia - Ch'ijee's Bluff in northern Yukon and nearby exposures on the Old Crow River, the Palisades on the Yukon River in Alaska, and placer mining exposures at Thistle Creek in west-central Yukon - which provide insight into the response of permafrost to regional warming during the last interglaciation. Chronology is based on the presence of Old Crow tephra, an important regional stratigraphic marker that dates to late Marine Isotope Stage 6, supplemented by paleoecology and non-finite C ages on wood-rich organic silts. Old Crow tephra overlies several relict ice wedges at the Palisades and Thistle Creek, indicating that permafrost at these sites did not thaw completely during the last interglaciation. Prominent deposits of last interglacial wood-rich organic silt are present at multiple sites in eastern Beringia, and probably represent accumulations of reworked forest vegetation due to thaw slumping or deposition into thermokarst ponds or depressions. Consistent stratigraphic relations between these deposits, Old Crow tephra, and ice wedge pseudomorphs at our three study sites, and at least six other sites in eastern Beringia, suggest that thaw of shallow permafrost was widespread during the last interglaciation. Limited stratigraphic evidence suggests that thaw was probably on the order of meters, rather than 10s of meters. The ubiquity of shallow permafrost degradation during the last interglaciation suggests that current ground warming may foreshadow widespread near-surface thaw under even modest future warming scenarios. However, the persistence of relict pre-last interglacial ice wedges highlights the potential for the regional antiquity of discontinuous permafrost, and provides compelling field evidence for the long-term resilience of deep permafrost during sustained periods of warmer-than-present climate.

A late-Middle Pleistocene (Marine Isotope Stage 6) vegetated surface buried by Old Crow tephra at the Palisades, interior Alaska

A 40 cm thick primary bed of Old Crow tephra (131 ± 11 ka), an important stratigraphic marker in eastern Beringia, directly overlies a vegetated surface at Palisades West, on the Yukon River in central Alaska. Analyses of insect, bryophyte, and vascular plant macrofossils from the buried surface and underlying organic-rich silt suggest the local presence of an aquatic environment and mesic shrub-tundra at the time of tephra deposition. Autochthonous plant and insect macrofossils from peat directly overlying Old Crow tephra suggest similar aquatic habitats and hydric to mesic tundra environments, though pollen counts indicate a substantial herbaceous component to the regional tundra vegetation. Trace amounts of arboreal pollen in sediments associated with the tephra probably reflect reworking from older deposits, rather than the local presence of trees. The revised glass fission-track age for Old Crow tephra places its deposition closer to the time of the last interglaciation than earlier age determinations, but stratigraphy and paleoecology of sites with Old Crow tephra indicate a late Marine Isotope Stage 6 age. Regional permafrost degradation and associated thaw slumping are responsible for the close stratigraphic and paleoecological relations between Old Crow tephra and last interglacial deposits at some sites in eastern Beringia. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd.