Volatile and persistent real exchange rates with or without sticky prices

The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Two methodologies are employed to explore this model's ability to generate volatile and persistent exchange rates. In the first, actual data is used for the exogenous driving processes. In the second, the model is simulated using estimated forcing processes. The theory, in both cases, is capable of explaining the high volatility and persistence of real and nominal exchange rates as well as the high correlation between real and nominal rates. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rate disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habitpersistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

Prices and Wages in Ireland, 1700-1850

The article presents primary research on rural wages and the prices of agricultural goods and draws conclusions concerning the trend in the living conditions of rural workers in the century before the Great Irish Famine of 1845-1850.

Property rights and competing for the affections of Demos: The Impact of the 1867 Reform Act on stock prices

The 1867 Reform Act in Britain extended the electoral franchise to the skilled but propertyless urban working classes. Using stock market data and exploiting the fact that foreign and domestic equities traded simultaneously on the London market, this paper finds that investors in British firms reacted negatively to the passage of this Act. We suggest that this finding is consistent with investors foreseeing future alterations of property rights arising from the pressure that the large newly enfranchised group would bring to bear on government policy. We also suggest that our findings appear to be more consistent with the Tory political competition explanation for the Act rather than the Whig threat-of-revolution explanation.

Residential consumption of gas and electricity in the U.S.: The role of prices and income

We study the residential demand for electricity and gas, working with nationwide household-level data that cover recent years, namely 1997-2007. Our dataset is a mixed panel/multi-year cross-sections of dwellings/households in the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States as of 2008. We estimate static and dynamic models of electricity and gas demand. We find strong household response to energy prices, both in the short and long term. From the static models, we get estimates of the own price elasticity of electricity demand in the -0.860 to -0.667 range, while the own price elasticity of gas demand is -0.693 to -0.566. These results are robust to a variety of checks. Contrary to earlier literature (Metcalf and Hassett, 1999; Reiss and White, 2005), we find no evidence of significantly different elasticities across households with electric and gas heat. The price elasticity of electricity demand declines with income, but the magnitude of this effect is small. These results are in sharp contrast to much of the literature on residential energy consumption in the United States, and with the figures used in current government agency practice. Our results suggest that there might be greater potential for policies which affect energy price than may have been previously appreciated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Harvest Shortfalls, Grain prices, and Famines in Preindustrial England

The frequency of bad harvests and price elasticity of demand are measured using new data on English grain yields 1268–1480 and 1750–1850 and a revised price series. The analysis shows that major harvest shortfalls were a significant component of most historical subsistence crises, as back-to-back shortfalls were of the worst famines. Although serious harvest shortfalls long remained an unavoidable fact of economic life, by c.1800 yields had become less variable and prices less harvest sensitive. By the eve of the Industrial Revolution, England had become effectively famine-free.

Energy efficiency investments in the home: Swiss homeowners and expectations about future energy prices

Using conjoint choice experiments, we surveyed 473 Swiss homeowners about their preferences for energy efficiency home renovations.We find that homeowners are responsive to the upfront costs of the renovation projects, governmentoffered rebates, savings in energy expenses, time horizon over which such savings would be realized, and thermal comfort improvement. The implicit discount rate is low, ranging from 1.5 to 3%, depending on model specification. This is consistent with Hassett and Metcalf (1993) and Metcalf and Rosenthal (1995), and with the fact that our scenarios contain no uncertainty. Respondents who feel completely uncertain about future energy prices are more likely to select the status quo (no renovations) in any given choice task and weight the costs of the investments more heavily than the financial gains (subsidies and savings on the energy bills). Renovations are more likely when respondents believe that climate change considerations are important determinants of home renovations. Copyright © 2013 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.