Exploratory Space-Time Analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011) of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471) occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km) was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km). Conclusions/Significance: The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread. © 2012 Métras et al.

The Essential Role of Human Databases for Learning in and Validation of Affectively Competent Agents.

This output is an invited and refereed chapter in the second of the two book length outputs resulting from the EU HUMAINE grant and follow-on grants. The book is in the OUP Affective Science Series and is intended to provide a theoretically oriented state of the art model for those working in the area of affective computing. Each chapter provides a synthesis of a specific area and presents new data/findings/approaches developed by the author(s) which take the area further. This chapter is in the section on ‘Approaches to developing expression corpora and databases.’ The chapter provides a critical synthesis of the issues involved in databases for affective computing and introduces the SEMAINE SAL Database, developed as an integral part of the EU SEMAINE Project (The Sensitive Agent Project 2008-2011) which is an interdisciplinary project. The project aimed to develop a computer interface that would allow a human to interact with an artificial agent in an emotional manner.

The Beta Agonist Lung Injury Trial Prevention:A Randomized Controlled Trial

Rationale: Experimental studies suggest that pretreatment with b-agonists might prevent acute lung injury (ALI).

Objectives: To determine if in adult patients undergoing elective esophagectomy, perioperative treatment with inhaled b-agonists effects the development of early ALI.

Methods:We conducted a randomized placebo-controlled trial in 12 UK centers (2008-2011). Adult patients undergoing elective esophagectomy were allocated to prerandomized, sequentially numbered treatment packs containing inhaled salmeterol (100 mg twice daily) or a matching placebo. Patients, clinicians, and researchers were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was development of ALI within 72 hours of surgery. Secondary outcomes were ALI within 28 days, organ failure, adverse events, survival, and health-related quality of life. An exploratory substudy measured biomarkers of alveolar-capillary inflammation and injury.

Measurements and Main Results: A total of 179 patients were randomized to salmeterol and 183 to placebo. Baseline characteristics were similar. Treatment with salmeterol did not prevent early lung injury (32 [19.2%] of 168 vs. 27 [16.0%] of 170; odds ratio [OR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-2.22). There was no difference in organ failure, survival, or health-related quality of life.Adverse events were less frequent in the salmeterol group (55 vs. 70; OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.39-0.99), predominantly because of a lower number of pneumonia (7 vs. 17; OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.16-0.96). Salmeterol reduced some biomarkers of alveolar inflammation and epithelial injury.

Conclusion: Perioperative treatment with inhaled salmeterol was well tolerated but did not prevent ALI.

Clinical trial registered with International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Register (ISRCTN47481946) and European Union database of randomized Controlled Trials (EudraCT 2007-004096-19).Copyright © 2014 by the American Thoracic Society.

Experiences of youth justice: Youth justice discourses and their multiple effects

Interventions within youth justice systems draw on a range of rationales and philosophies. Traditionally demarcated by a welfare/justice binary, the complex array of contemporary rationales meld different philosophies and practices, suggesting a mutability that gives this sphere a continued (re)productive and felt effect. While it may be increasingly difficult to ascertain which of these discourses is dominant in different jurisdictions in the UK, particular models of justice are perceived to be more prominent (Muncie, 2006). Traditionally it is assumed that Northern Ireland prioritises restoration, Wales prioritises rights, England priorities risk and Scotland welfare (McVie, 2011; Muncie, 2008, 2011). However, how these discourses are enacted in practice, how multiple and competing rationales circulate within them and most fundamentally how they are experienced by young people is less clear. This paper, based on research with young people who have experienced the full range of interventions in the youth justice system in Northern Ireland examines their narratives of ‘justice’. It considers how different discourses might influence the same intervention and how the deployment of multiple rationalities gives the experience of ‘justice’ its effect.