A Census-based longitudinal study of variations in survival amongst residents of nursing and residential homes in Northern Ireland

Background: despite the intensive services provided to residents of care homes, information on death rates is not routinely available for this population in the UK. Objective: to quantify mortality rates across the care home population of Northern Ireland, and assess variation by type of care home and resident characteristics. Design: a prospective, Census-based cohort study, with 5-year follow-up. Participants: all 9,072 residents of care homes for people aged 65 and over at the time of the 2001 census with a special emphasis on the 2,112 residents admitted during the year preceding census day. Measurements: age, sex, self-reported health, marital status, residence (not in care home, residential home, dual registered home, nursing home), elderly mentally infirm care provision. Results: the median survival among nursing home residents was 2.33 years (95% CI 2.25–2.59), for dual registered homes 2.75 (95% CI 2.42–3.17) and for residential homes 4.51 (95% CI 3.92–4.92) years. Age, sex and self-reported health showed weaker associations in the sicker populations in nursing homes compared to those in residential care or among the non-institutionalised. Conclusions: the high mortality in care homes indicates that places in care homes are reserved for the most severely ill and dependent. Death rates may not be an appropriate care quality measure for this population, but may serve as a useful adjunct for clinical staff and the planning of care home provision.

Pain in care home residents with dementia: an exploration of frequency, prescribing and relatives' perspectives

Objectives: This study aims to determine pain frequency amongst care home residents with dementia, to investigate variables associated with pain, to explore analgesic use among residents and to seek residents' relatives' views on provision of care and management of pain by the care home. Methods: Structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with residents, nursing staff and relatives from nine dementia care homes in Northern Ireland, between May 2010 and March 2012. Demographic information was collected from participants, neuropsychiatric tests were used to assess residents' cognitive functioning, medication use was determined from care home records and residents' pain was assessed using a verbal descriptor scale. Relatives' views were sought on care provision and management of pain. Results: Forty-two residents, 16 nurses/care assistants and 35 relatives participated; the participation rate of residents was low (27.6%). Most residents were suffering moderate-severe dementia, and some residents (26.2%) were unable to provide a self-report of pain. A significantly higher proportion of relatives (57.1%) deemed residents to be experiencing pain at the time of the interview, compared with residents (23.8%, p = 0.005) and nurses/care assistants (42.9%, p = 0.035). Most residents (88.1%) were prescribed with analgesia; non-opioid analgesics were most commonly prescribed. High proportions of residents were prescribed with psychoactive medications. Antipsychotic drug use was associated with presence of pain (p = 0.046). Conclusions: This study has reinforced the challenge of assessing and managing pain in this resident population and highlighted issues to be addressed by long-term care providers and clinicians. Participation of people with dementia, and their families, in healthcare research needs to be improved.

Adjusting HIV Prevalence Estimates for Non-participation: an Application to Demographic Surveillance

Introduction: HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa.

Methods: We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status.

Results: For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation.

Conclusions: We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population-based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non-participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest.

Mental Health and Morbidity of Caregivers and Co-Residents of individuals with Dementia: A Quasi-Experimental Design

Objectives: To determine if providing informal care to a co-resident with dementia symptoms places an additional risk on the likelihood of poor mental health or mortality compared to co-resident non-caregivers.
Design: A quasi-experimental design of caregiving and non-caregiving co-residents of individuals with dementia symptoms, providing a natural comparator for the additive effects of caregiving on top of living with an individual with dementia symptoms. 
Methods: Census records, providing information on household structure, intensity of caregiving, presence of dementia symptoms and self-reported mental health, were linked to mortality records over the following 33 months. Multi-level regression models were constructed to determine the risk of poor mental health and death in co-resident caregivers of individuals with dementia symptoms compared to co-resident non-caregivers, adjusting for the clustering of individuals within households.
Results: The cohort consisted of 10,982 co-residents (55.1% caregivers), with 12.1% of non-caregivers reporting poor mental health compared to 8.4% of intense caregivers (>20 hours of care per week). During follow-up the cohort experienced 560 deaths (245 to caregivers). Overall, caregiving co-residents were at no greater risk of poor mental health but had lower mortality risk than non-caregiving co-residents (ORadj=0.93, 95% CI 0.79, 1.10 and ORadj=0.67, 95% CI 0.56, 0.81, respectively); this lower mortality risk was also seen amongst the most intensive caregivers (ORadj=0.65, 95% CI 0.53, 0.79).
Conclusion: Caregiving poses no additional risk to mental health over and above the risk associated with merely living with someone with dementia, and is associated with a lower mortality risk compared to non-caregiving co-residents.