Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Validation of Speciation Techniques: A Study of Chlorozincate(II) Ionic Liquids

The speciation of chlorozincate(II) ionic liquids, prepared by mixing 1-octyl-3-methylirnidazolium chloride, [C(8)mim]Cl, and zinc(II) chloride in various molar ratios, chi zncl(2), was investigated using Raman spectroscopy and differential scanning calorimetry; the Gutmann acceptor number, which is a quantitative measure of Lewis acidity, was also determined as a function of the composition. These results were combined with literature data to define the anionic speciation; in the neat liquid phase, the existence of cl(-), [ZnCl4](2-), [Zn2Cl6](2-), [Zn3Cl8](2-), and [Zn4Cl10](2-) anions was confirmed. From two chlorozincate(H) ionic liquids with [C(2)mim](+) cations (chi zncl(2) = 0.33 and chi zncl(2) = 0.50), crystals have been obtained, revealing the structures of [C(2)mim)(2)[ZnCl4] and [C(2)mim](2)[Zn2Cl6] forming three-dimensional hydrogen-bond networks. The compound [C(2)mim](2){Zn4Cl10} was crystallized from the chi zncl(1) = 0.75 composition, showing an open-framework structure, with the first example of zinc in a trigonal-bipyramidal chloride coordination. Reinvestigation of the electrospray ionization mass spectrometry of these systems demonstrated that it is an unreliable technique to study liquid-phase speciation.

Predicting organic acid concentration from UV/vis spectrometry measurements - A comparison of machine learning techniques

The concentration of organic acids in anaerobic digesters is one of the most critical parameters for monitoring and advanced control of anaerobic digestion processes. Thus, a reliable online-measurement system is absolutely necessary. A novel approach to obtaining these measurements indirectly and online using UV/vis spectroscopic probes, in conjunction with powerful pattern recognition methods, is presented in this paper. An UV/vis spectroscopic probe from S::CAN is used in combination with a custom-built dilution system to monitor the absorption of fully fermented sludge at a spectrum from 200 to 750 nm. Advanced pattern recognition methods are then used to map the non-linear relationship between measured absorption spectra to laboratory measurements of organic acid concentrations. Linear discriminant analysis, generalized discriminant analysis (GerDA), support vector machines (SVM), relevance vector machines, random forest and neural networks are investigated for this purpose and their performance compared. To validate the approach, online measurements have been taken at a full-scale 1.3-MW industrial biogas plant. Results show that whereas some of the methods considered do not yield satisfactory results, accurate prediction of organic acid concentration ranges can be obtained with both GerDA and SVM-based classifiers, with classification rates in excess of 87% achieved on test data.

Structural reinforcement of microvascular networks using electrostatic layer-by-layer assembly with halloysite nanotubes

We demonstrate a method for tailoring local mechanical properties near channel surfaces of vascular structural polymers in order to achieve high structural performance in microvascular systems. While synthetic vascularized materials have been created by a variety of manufacturing techniques, unreinforced microchannels act as stress concentrators and lead to the initiation of premature failure. Taking inspiration from biological tissues such as dentin and bone, these mechanical deficiencies can be mitigated by complex hierarchical structural features near to channel surfaces. By employing electrostatic layer-by-layer assembly (ELbL) to deposit films containing halloysite nanotubes onto scaffold surfaces followed by matrix infiltration and scaffold removal, we are able to controllably deposit nanoscale reinforcement onto 200 micron diameter channel surface interiors in microvascular networks. High resolution strain measurements on reinforced networks under load verify that the halloysite reduces strain concentrations and improves mechanical performance.

Efficient Network in Player and Partner Heterogeneity Models

This paper characterizes efficient networks in player and partner heterogeneity models for both the one-way flow and the two-way flow models. Player (partner) dependent network formation allows benefits and costs to be player (partner) heterogeneous which is an important extension for modeling social networks in the real world. Employing widely used assumptions, I show that efficient networks in the two way flow model are minimally connected and have star or derivative of star type architectures, whereas efficient networks in the one way flow model have wheel architectures.

Multimedia Resource Allocation in mmWave 5G Networks

The 5G network infrastructure is driven by the evolution of today's most demanding applications. Already, multimedia applications such as on-demand HD video and IPTV require gigabit- per-second throughput and low delay, while future technologies include ultra HDTV and machine-to-machine communication. Mm-Wave technologies such as IEEE 802.15.3c and IEEE 802.11ad are ideal candidates to deliver high throughput to multiple users demanding differentiated QoS. Optimization is often used as a methodology to meet throughput and delay constraints. However, traditional optimization techniques are not suited to a mixed set of multimedia applications. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is shown as a promising technique in this context. Channel-time allocation PSO (CTA-PSO) is successfully shown here to allocate resource even in scenarios where blockage of the 60 GHz signal poses significant challenges.

Inference in credal networks using multilinear programming

A credal network is a graphical tool for representation and manipulation of uncertainty, where probability values may be imprecise or indeterminate. A credal network associates a directed acyclic graph with a collection of sets of probability measures; in this context, inference is the computation of tight lower and upper bounds for conditional probabilities. In this paper we present new algorithms for inference in credal networks based on multilinear programming techniques. Experiments indicate that these new algorithms have better performance than existing ones, in the sense that they can produce more accurate results in larger networks.

Asset Tracking in Critical Power Communications Infrastructures using Passive Techniques

Active network scanning injects traffic into a network and observes responses to draw conclusions about the network. Passive network analysis works by looking at network meta data or by analyzing traffic as it traverses a fixed point on the network. It may be infeasible or inappropriate to scan critical infrastructure networks. Techniques exist to uniquely map assets without resorting to active scanning. In many cases, it is possible to characterize and identify network nodes by passively analyzing traffic flows. These techniques are considered in particular with respect to their application to power industry critical infrastructure.

Communication Nonlinearities Techniques for Analysis of Passive Intermodulation

The X-parameter based nonlinear modelling tools have been adopted as the foundation for the advanced methodology
of experimental characterisation and design of passive nonlinear devices. Based upon the formalism of the Xparameters,
it provides a unified framework for co-design of antenna beamforming networks, filters, phase shifters and
other passive and active devices of RF front-end, taking into account the effect of their nonlinearities. The equivalent
circuits of the canonical elements are readily incorporated in the models, thus enabling evaluation of PIM effect on the
performance of individual devices and their assemblies. An important advantage of the presented methodology is its
compatibility with the industry-standard established commercial RF circuit simulator Agilent ADS.
The major challenge in practical implementation of the proposed approach is concerned with experimental retrieval of the X-parameters for canonical passive circuit elements. To our best knowledge commercial PIM testers and practical laboratory test instruments are inherently narrowband and do not allow for simultaneous vector measurements at the PIM and harmonic frequencies. Alternatively, existing nonlinear vector analysers (NVNA) support X-parameter measurements in a broad frequency bands with a range of stimuli, but their dynamic range is insufficient for the PIM characterisation in practical circuits. Further opportunities for adaptation of the X-parameters methodology to the PIM
characterisation of passive devices using the existing test instruments are explored.

Secure Transmission in Cooperative Relaying Networks with Multiple Antennas

We investigate the secrecy performance of dualhop amplify-and-forward (AF) multi-antenna relaying systems over Rayleigh fading channels, by taking into account the direct link between the source and destination. In order to exploit the available direct link and the multiple antennas for secrecy improvement, different linear processing schemes at the relay and different diversity combining techniques at the destination are proposed, namely, 1) Zero-forcing/Maximal ratio combining (ZF/MRC), 2) ZF/Selection combining (ZF/SC), 3) Maximal ratio transmission/MRC (MRT/MRC) and 4) MRT/Selection combining (MRT/SC). For all these schemes, we present new closed-form approximations for the secrecy outage probability. Moreover, we investigate a benchmark scheme, i.e., cooperative jamming/ZF (CJ/ZF), where the secrecy outage probability is obtained in exact closed-form. In addition, we present asymptotic secrecy outage expressions for all the proposed schemes in the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime, in order to characterize key design parameters, such as secrecy diversity order and secrecy array gain. The outcomes of this paper can be summarized as follows: a) MRT/MRC and MRT/SC achieve a full diversity order of M + 1, ZF/MRC and ZF/SC achieve a diversity order of M, while CJ/ZF only achieves unit diversity order, where M is the number of antennas at the relay. b) ZF/MRC (ZF/SC) outperforms the corresponding MRT/MRC (MRT/SC) in the low SNR regime, while becomes inferior to the corresponding MRT/MRC (MRT/SC) in the high SNR. c) All of the proposed schemes tend to outperform the CJ/ZF with moderate number of antennas, and linear processing schemes with MRC attain better performance than those with SC.