Smart meter devices and the effect of feedback on residential electricity consumption: Evidence from a natural experiment in Northern Ireland

Using a unique set of data and exploiting a large-scale natural experiment, we estimate the effect of real-time usage information on residential electricity consumption in Northern Ireland. Starting in April 2002, the utility replaced prepayment meters with advanced meters that allow the consumer to track usage in real-time. We rely on this event, account for the endogeneity of price and payment plan with consumption through a plan selection correction term, and find that the provision of information is associated with a decline in electricity consumption of 11-17%. We find that the reduction is robust to different specifications, selection-bias correction methods and subsamples of the original data. The advanced metering program delivers reasonably cost-effective reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, even under the most conservative usage reduction scenarios.

Physical activity and the rejuvenation of Connswater (PARC study): protocol for a natural experiment investigating the impact of urban regeneration on public health

Background: There is a dearth of evidence regarding the impact of urban regeneration projects on public health, particularly the nature and degree to which urban regeneration impacts upon health-related behaviour change. Natural experiment methodology enables comprehensive large-scale evaluations of such interventions. The Connswater Community Greenway in Belfast is a major urban regeneration project involving the development of a 9 km linear park, including the provision of new cycle paths and walkways. In addition to the environmental improvements, this complex intervention involves a number of programmes to promote physical activity in the regenerated area. The project affords a unique opportunity to investigate the public health impact of urban regeneration.

Methods/Design: The evaluation framework was informed by the socio-ecological model and guided by the RE-AIM Framework. Key components include: (1) a quasi-experimental before-and-after survey of the Greenway population (repeated cross-sectional design), in tandem with data from a parallel Northern Ireland-wide survey for comparison; (2) an assessment of changes in the local built environment and of walkability using geographic information systems; (3) semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of survey respondents, and a range of community stakeholders, before and after the regeneration project; and (4) a cost-effectiveness analysis. The primary outcome is change in proportion of individuals identified as being regularly physically active, according to the current UK recommendations. The RE-AIM Framework will be used to make an overall assessment of the impact of the Greenway on the physical activity behaviour of local residents.

Discussion: The Connswater Community Greenway provides a significant opportunity to achieve long-term, population level behaviour change. We argue that urban regeneration may be conceptualised meaningfully as a complex intervention comprising multiple components with the potential, individually and interactively, to affect the behaviour of a diverse population. The development and implementation of our comprehensive evaluation framework reflects this complexity and illuminates an approach to the empirical, rigorous evaluation of urban regeneration. More specifically, this study will add to the much needed evidence-base about the impact of urban regeneration on public health as well as having important implications for the development of natural experiment methodology.

Government decisions before and during the First World War and the living standards in Germany during a drastic natural experiment

The First World War hit Germany severely, particularly the agricultural sector, because the outbreak came unexpected and its duration exceeded all expectations. Many resources necessary for agricultural production were required by the war economy and led to shortages and shrinking supplies. Many agricultural laborers were drafted and the blockade imposed by the allies prevented Germany from a great deal of imports. As a consequence, the nutritional situation was devastating, particularly after 1916, and hit all groups of the German society. The period under observation provides one of most drastic natural experiments in the 20th century. This study uses anthropometric data from German soldiers who served in the Second World War to trace living standards between the 1900s and the 1920s. In contrast to other approaches, this paper is able to distinguish between social groups by occupation, religious denominatio\n, regional origin, and city size. The results suggest that although all social strata were hit by famine conditions, the height of farmers, urban citizens, Catholics, and especially individuals born in the highly integrated food-import regions along the coast and the banks of the Rhine declined most.

Benchmark Status in Fixed-Income Asset Markets

What is a benchmark bond? We provide a formal theoretical treatment of this concept that relates endogenously determined benchmark status to the location of price discovery and we derive its implications. We describe a rich but little used econometric technique for identifying the benchmark that is congruent with our theoretical framework. We apply this in the context of the US corporate bond market and to the natural experiment that occurred when benchmark status was contested in the European sovereign bond markets after the introduction of the Euro. We show that France provides the benchmark at most maturities in the Euro-denominated sovereign bond market and that IBM provides the benchmark in the 10 year maturity in the US corporate bond market.

The genetics of coronary heart disease: The contribution of twin studies

Despite the decline in coronary heart disease in many European countries, the disease remains an enormous public health problem. Although we know a great deal about environmental risk factors for coronary heart disease, a heritable component was recognized a long time ago. The earliest and best known examples of how our genetic constitution may determine cardiovascular risk relate to lipoprotein(a), familial hypercholesterolaemia and apolipoprotein E. In the past 20 years a fair number of polymorphisms assessed singly have shown strong associations with the disease but most are subject to poor repeatability. Twins constitute a compelling natural experiment to establish the genetic contribution to coronary heart disease and its risk factors. GenomEUtwin, a recently funded Framework 5 Programme of the European Community, affords the opportunity of comparing the heritability of risk factors in different European Twin Registries. As an illustration we present the heritabilities of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, based on data from over 4000 twin pairs from six different European countries and Australia. Heritabilities for systolic blood pressure are between 52 and 66% and for diastolic blood pressure between 44 and 66%. There is no evidence of sex differences in heritability estimates and very little to no evidence for a significant contribution of shared family environment. A non-twin based prospective case/cohort study of coronary heart disease and stroke (MORGAM) will allow hypotheses relating to cardiovascular disease, generated in the twin cohorts, to be tested prospectively in adult populations. Twin studies have also contributed to our understanding of the life course hypothesis, and GenomEUtwin has the potential to add to this.

Max Weber and the First World War: Protestant and Catholic living standards in Germany, 1914-1919

We assess informal institutions of Protestants and Catholics by investigating their economic resilience in a natural experiment. The First World War constitutes an exogenous shock to living standards since the duration and intensity of the war exceeded all expectations. We assess the ability of Protestant and Catholic communities to cope with increasing food prices and wartime black markets. Literature based on Weber (1904, 1905) suggests that Protestants must be more resilient than their Catholic peers. Using individual height data on some 2,800 Germans to assess levels of malnutrition during the war, we find that living standards for both Protestants and Catholics declined; however, the decrease of Catholics’ height was disproportionately large. Our empirical analysis finds a large statistically significant difference between Protestants and Catholics for the 1915–19 birth cohort, and we argue that this height gap cannot be attributed to socioeconomic background and fertility alone.

Max Weber and the First World War: Protestant and Catholic living standards in Germany, 1915-1919

We assess informal institutions of Protestants and Catholics by investigating their economic
resilience in a natural experiment. The First World War constitutes an exogenous shock to living standards since the duration and intensity of the war exceeded all expectations. We assess the ability of Protestant and Catholic communities to cope with increasing food prices and wartime black markets. Literature based on Weber (1904, 1905) suggests that Protestants must be more resilient than their Catholic peers. Using individual height data on some 2,800 Germans to assess levels of malnutrition during the war, we find that living standards for both Protestants and Catholics declined; however, the decrease of Catholics’ height was disproportionately large. Our empirical analysis finds a large statistically significant difference between Protestants and Catholics for the 1914-19 birth cohort, and we argue that this height gap cannot be attributed to socioeconomic background and fertility alone.

Size Matters: The Effect of the Size of Ethnic Groups on Development

The share of ethnic groups is one of the most important features of African politics. It affects civil wars, representation in government positions, distributive and allocative policies. In this paper we use the partition of ethnic groups as a natural experiment in order to estimate the effect of the share of these ethnic groups on development. We show that larger groups have an advantage in terms of development and that the partition in itself does not matter for development. This result is explained by the fact that the partition matters only when the resulting groups are relatively small, since their lack of political representation may weaken support for institutions, may bias policies and the provision of ethnic/regional public goods.

Task sharing within a managed clinical network to improve child health in Malawi

BACKGROUND: Eighty per cent of Malawi's 8 million children live in rural areas, and there is an extensive tiered health system infrastructure from village health clinics to district hospitals which refers patients to one of the four central hospitals. The clinics and district hospitals are staffed by nurses, non-physician clinicians and recently qualified doctors. There are 16 paediatric specialists working in two of the four central hospitals which serve the urban population as well as accepting referrals from district hospitals. In order to provide expert paediatric care as close to home as possible, we describe our plan to task share within a managed clinical network and our hypothesis that this will improve paediatric care and child health.

PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: Managed clinical networks have been found to improve equity of care in rural districts and to ensure that the correct care is provided as close to home as possible. A network for paediatric care in Malawi with mentoring of non-physician clinicians based in a district hospital by paediatricians based at the central hospitals will establish and sustain clinical referral pathways in both directions. Ultimately, the plan envisages four managed paediatric clinical networks, each radiating from one of Malawi's four central hospitals and covering the entire country. This model of task sharing within four hub-and-spoke networks may facilitate wider dissemination of scarce expertise and improve child healthcare in Malawi close to the child's home.

TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: Funding has been secured to train sufficient personnel to staff all central and district hospitals in Malawi with teams of paediatric specialists in the central hospitals and specialist non-physician clinicians in each government district hospital. The hypothesis will be tested using a natural experiment model. Data routinely collected by the Ministry of Health will be corroborated at the district. This will include case fatality rates for common childhood illness, perinatal mortality and process indicators. Data from different districts will be compared at baseline and annually until 2020 as the specialists of both cadres take up posts.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS: If a managed clinical network improves child healthcare in Malawi, it may be a potential model for the other countries in sub-Saharan Africa with similar cadres in their healthcare system and face similar challenges in terms of scarcity of specialists.

From Crisis to Opportunity: Turnaround Strategies of Large Irish Construction Contractors During the Period 2007-2015.

The sudden change in environmental munificence level in the construction sector
during the period 2007 – 2015 provides a natural experiment to investigate strategic
and operating actions of firms, particularly during an environmental jolt. Statistics on
business failures corroborate that neither academics nor practitioners have succeeded
in guiding strategic action during periods of environmental jolt. Despite the recent
increase of turnaround research in the general management domain, its use in the
construction management realm remains underexplored. To address this research
gap, five exploratory case studies of an ongoing PhD study were used to examine the
turnaround strategies of construction contractors during a period of economic
contraction and growth. The findings show that, although retrenchment is often
considered to be a short-term strategy, this is clearly not the case; with the majority of
contractors maintaining the strategy for 6-7 years. During the same period,
internationalization became critical, with the turnaround process shifting towards
strategic reorientation that altered the firms' market domain. The case studies further
suggest that strategic and operational actions resonate quite well with contemporary
practice-based approaches to strategy making. The findings provide valuable
assistance for construction contractors in dealing with organisational decline and in
developing a successful turnaround response.

Comparison of a plant based natural surfactant with SDS for washing of As(V) from Fe rich soil

This study explores the possible application of a biodegradable plant based surfactant, obtained from Sapindus mukorossi, for washing low levels of arsenic (As) from an iron (Fe) rich soil. Natural association of As(V) with Fe(III) makes the process difficult. Soapnut solution was compared to anionic surfactant sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) in down-flow and a newly introduced suction mode for soil
column washing. It was observed that soapnut attained up to 86% efficiency with respect to SDS in removing As. Full factorial design of experiment revealed a very good fit of data. The suction mode generated up to 83 kPa pressure inside column whilst down-flow mode generated a much higher pressure of 214 kPa, thus making the suction mode more efficient. Micellar solubilisation was found to
be responsible for As desorption from the soil and it followed 1st order kinetics. Desorption rate coefficient of suction mode was found to be in the range of 0.005 to 0.01, much higher than down-flow mode values. Analysis of the FT-IR data suggested that the soapnut solution did not interact chemically with As, offering an option for reusing the surfactant. Soapnut can be considered as a soil washing
agent for removing As even from soil with high Fe content.

Fixed Bed Study of Ammonia Removal from Aqueous Solutions Using Natural Zeolite

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of natural Jordanian zeolite tuff to remove ammonia from aqueous solutions using a laboratory batch method and fixed-bed column apparatus. Equilibrium data were fitted to Langmuir and Freundlich models.

Design/methodology/approach
– Column experiments were conducted in packed bed column. The used apparatus consisted of a bench-mounted glass column of 2.5 cm inside diameter and 100 cm height (column volume = 490 cm3). The column was packed with a certain amount of zeolite to give the desired bed height. The feeding solution was supplied from a 30 liter plastic container at the beginning of each experiment and fed to the column down-flow through a glass flow meter having a working range of 10-280ml/min.

Findings
– Ammonium ion exchange by natural Jordanian zeolite data were fitted by Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. Continuous sorption of ammonium ions by natural Jordanian zeolite tuff has proven to be effective in decreasing concentrations ranging from 15-50 mg NH4-N/L down to levels below 1 mg/l. Breakthrough time increased by increasing the bed depth as well as decreasing zeolite particle size, solution flow-rate, initial NH4+ concentration and pH. Sorption of ammonium by the zeolite under the tested conditions gave the sorption capacity of 28 mg NH4-N/L at 20°C, and 32 mg NH4-N/L at 30°C.

Originality/value
– This research investigates the performance of natural Jordanian zeolite tuff to remove ammonia from aqueous solutions using a laboratory batch method and fixed-bed column apparatus. The equilibrium data of the sorption of Ammonia were plotted by using the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms, then the experimental data were compared to the predictions of the above equilibrium isotherm models. It is clear that the NH4+ ion exchange data fitted better with Langmuir isotherm than with Freundlich model and gave an adequate correlation coefficient value.

Identification of the Dynamic Parameters of a Real Bridge under Different Damage Conditions in a Field Experiment

This paper presents the results of a real bridge field experiment in which damage was applied artificially to a steel truss bridge. The aim of this paper is to identify the dynamic parameters of this bridge using conventional techniques and investigate the effect of various damage conditions on those parameters. In the field experiment, acceleration measurements were recorded at a number of locations on the bridge deck. To excite the bridge, a two-axle van was driven across the bridge at constant speed. Dynamic parameters, such as the bridge mode shape, natural frequency and damping constant, are identified from the acceleration signals using existing techniques such as the fast Fourier transform, logarithmic decrement and frequency domain decomposition. The variation of these parameters under the influence of artificially applied damage conditions is investigated in order to evaluate their sensitivity to the bridge damage.