Improved reliability in diagnosing faults using multivariate statistics

This paper analyses multivariate statistical techniques for identifying and isolating abnormal process behaviour. These techniques include contribution charts and variable reconstructions that relate to the application of principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis reveals firstly that contribution charts produce variable contributions which are linearly dependent and may lead to an incorrect diagnosis, if the number of principal components retained is close to the number of recorded process variables. The analysis secondly yields that variable reconstruction affects the geometry of the PCA decomposition. The paper further introduces an improved variable reconstruction method for identifying multiple sensor and process faults and for isolating their influence upon the recorded process variables. It is shown that this can accommodate the effect of reconstruction, i.e. changes in the covariance matrix of the sensor readings and correctly re-defining the PCA-based monitoring statistics and their confidence limits. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Density Forecasts for Multivariate Asset Returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the “negative tail” of the joint distribution.

In vitro release of nonoxynol-9 from silicone matrix intravaginal rings

The controlled-release characteristics of matrix silicone intravaginal rings loaded with between 100 and 971 mg of nonoxynol-9 have been investigated with a view to developing a ring that may offer a new female-controlled method for the prevention of transmission of sexually transmitted diseases, particularly HIV. Intravaginal rings containing 253, 487 and 971 mg of nonoxynol-9 provided a daily release of 2 mg or more over the 8-day release period, the minimal amount of nonoxynol-9 considered to provide an effective vaginal concentration for the prevention of HIV. Furthermore, the maximum daily release of N9 was about 6 mg, an amount significantly smaller than that observed for other nonoxynol-9 products whose large daily doses may in fact increase the occurrence of HIV by causing epithelial damage to the vaginal tissue. The release mechanism of the liquid nonoxynol-9 from the intravaginal rings has also been investigated and compared to models describing the release of solid drugs from the rings. It has been demonstrated through release studies and surface microscopy that a drug depletion zone is not established in such liquid-loaded intravaginal ring systems, with implications for the release kinetics. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High speed DSC (hyper-DSC) as a tool to measure the solubility of a drug within a solid or semi-solid matrix

Conventional differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) techniques are commonly used to quantify the solubility of drugs within polymeric-controlled delivery systems. However, the nature of the DSC experiment, and in particular the relatively slow heating rates employed, limit its use to the measurement of drug solubility at the drug's melting temperature. Here, we describe the application of hyper-DSC (HDSC), a variant of DSC involving extremely rapid heating rates, to the calculation of the solubility of a model drug, metronidazole, in silicone elastomer, and demonstrate that the faster heating rates permit the solubility to be calculated under non-equilibrium conditions such that the solubility better approximates that at the temperature of use. At a heating rate of 400 degrees C/min (HDSC), metronidazole solubility was calculated to be 2.16 mg/g compared with 6.16 mg/g at 20 degrees C/min. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fault Diagnosis in Internal Combustion Engines Using Nonlinear Multivariate Statistics

This paper presents a statistical-based fault diagnosis scheme for application to internal combustion engines. The scheme relies on an identified model that describes the relationships between a set of recorded engine variables using principal component analysis (PCA). Since combustion cycles are complex in nature and produce nonlinear relationships between the recorded engine variables, the paper proposes the use of nonlinear PCA (NLPCA). The paper further justifies the use of NLPCA by comparing the model accuracy of the NLPCA model with that of a linear PCA model. A new nonlinear variable reconstruction algorithm and bivariate scatter plots are proposed for fault isolation, following the application of NLPCA. The proposed technique allows the diagnosis of different fault types under steady-state operating conditions. More precisely, nonlinear variable reconstruction can remove the fault signature from the recorded engine data, which allows the identification and isolation of the root cause of abnormal engine behaviour. The paper shows that this can lead to (i) an enhanced identification of potential root causes of abnormal events and (ii) the masking of faulty sensor readings. The effectiveness of the enhanced NLPCA based monitoring scheme is illustrated by its application to a sensor fault and a process fault. The sensor fault relates to a drift in the fuel flow reading, whilst the process fault relates to a partial blockage of the intercooler. These faults are introduced to a Volkswagen TDI 1.9 Litre diesel engine mounted on an experimental engine test bench facility.

Children with stable asthma have reduced airway matrix metalloproteinase-9 and matrix metalloproteinase-9/tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 ratio

Background Childhood asthma is characterized by inflammation of the airways. Structural changes of the airway wall may also be seen in some children early in the course of the disease. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are key mediators in the metabolism of the extracellular matrix (ECM). Objective To investigate the balance of MMP-8, MMP-9 and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMP)-1 in the airways of children with asthma. Methods One hundred and twenty-four children undergoing elective surgical procedures also underwent non-bronchoscopic bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL). MMP-8, MMP-9 and TIMP-1 were measured by ELISA. Results There was a significant reduction in MMP-9 in atopic asthmatic children (n=31) compared with normal children (n=30) [median difference: 0.57 ng/mL (95% confidence interval: 0.18–1.1 ng/mL)]. The ratio of MMP-9 to TIMP-1 was also reduced in asthmatic children. Levels of all three proteins were significantly correlated to each other and to the relative proportions of particular inflammatory cells in BAL fluid (BALF). Both MMP-8 and MMP-9 were moderately strongly correlated to the percentage neutrophil count (r=0.40 and 0.47, respectively, P