Development and application of a multiple linear regression model to consider the impact of weekly waste container capacity on the yield from kerbside recycling programmes

The paper describes the development and application of a multiple linear regression model to identify how the key elements of waste and recycling infrastructure, namely container capacity and frequency of collection affect the yield from municipal kerbside recycling programmes. The overall aim of the research was to gain an understanding of the factors affecting the yield from municipal kerbside recycling programmes in Scotland. The study isolates the principal kerbside collection service offered by 32 councils across Scotland, eliminating those recycling programmes associated with flatted properties or multi occupancies. The results of a regression analysis model has identified three principal factors which explain 80% of the variability in the average yield of the principal dry recyclate services: weekly residual waste capacity, number of materials collected and the weekly recycling capacity. The use of the model has been evaluated and recommendations made on ongoing methodological development and the use of the results in informing the design of kerbside recycling programmes. The authors hope that the research can provide insights for the ongoing development of methods to optimise the design and operation of kerbside recycling programmes.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC_Ph) for patient waiting time with a logistic regression component to predict patient admission to hospital

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models are a family of models which represent skewed survival data conditioned on specific inter-related discrete variables. The survival data is modeled using a Coxian phase-type distribution which is associated with the inter-related variables using a range of possible data mining approaches such as Bayesian networks (BNs), the Naïve Bayes Classification method and classification regression trees. This paper utilizes the Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC-Ph) to explore the modeling of patient waiting times in an Accident and Emergency Department of a UK hospital. The resulting DC-Ph model takes on the form of the Coxian phase-type distribution conditioned on the outcome of a logistic regression model.

On Regression Methods for Virtual Metrology in Semiconductor Manufacturing

Virtual metrology (VM) aims to predict metrology values using sensor data from production equipment and physical metrology values of preceding samples. VM is a promising technology for the semiconductor manufacturing industry as it can reduce the frequency of in-line metrology operations and provide supportive information for other operations such as fault detection, predictive maintenance and run-to-run control. The prediction models for VM can be from a large variety of linear and nonlinear regression methods and the selection of a proper regression method for a specific VM problem is not straightforward, especially when the candidate predictor set is of high dimension, correlated and noisy. Using process data from a benchmark semiconductor manufacturing process, this paper evaluates the performance of four typical regression methods for VM: multiple linear regression (MLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), neural networks (NN) and Gaussian process regression (GPR). It is observed that GPR performs the best among the four methods and that, remarkably, the performance of linear regression approaches that of GPR as the subset of selected input variables is increased. The observed competitiveness of high-dimensional linear regression models, which does not hold true in general, is explained in the context of extreme learning machines and functional link neural networks.

Components of resistance to Fusarium head blight in wheat detected in a seed germination assay with Microdochium majus and the relationship to FHB disease development and mycotoxin accumulation from Fusarium graminearum infection.

Components of partial disease resistance (PDR) to fusarium head blight (FHB), detected in a seed-germination assay, were compared with whole-plant FHB resistance of 30 USA soft red winter wheat entries in the 2002 Uniform Southern FHB Nursery. Highly significant (P <0·001) differences between cultivars in the in vitro seed-germination assay inoculated with Microdochium majus were correlated to FHB disease incidence (r = -0·41; P <0·05), severity (r = -0·47; P <0·01), FHB index (r = -0·46; P <0·01), damaged kernels (r = -0·52; P <0·01), grain deoxynivalenol (DON) concentration (r = -0·40; P <0·05) and incidence/severity/kernel-damage index (ISK) (r = -0·45; P <0·01) caused by Fusarium graminearum. Multiple linear regression analysis explained a greater percentage of variation in FHB resistance using the seed-germination assay and the previously reported detached-leaf assay PDR components as explanatory factors. Shorter incubation periods, longer latent periods, shorter lesion lengths in the detached-leaf assay and higher germination rates in the seed-germination assay were related to greater FHB resistance across all disease variables, collectively explaining 62% of variation for incidence, 49% for severity, 56% for F. graminearum-damaged kernels (FDK), 39% for DON and 59% for ISK index. Incubation period was most strongly related to disease incidence and the early stages of infection, while resistance detected in the seed germination assay and latent period were more strongly related to FHB disease severity. Resistance detected using the seed-germination assay was notable as it related to greater decline in the level of FDK and a smaller reduction in DON than would have been expected from the reduction in FHB disease assessed by visual symptoms.

A cephalometric study of class II malocclusions treated with mandibular surgery

INTRODUCTION:

Class II malocclusion is often associated with retrognathic mandible. Some of these problems require surgical correction. The purposes of this study were to investigate treatment outcomes in patients with Class II malocclusions whose treatment included mandibular advancement surgery and to identify predictors of good outcomes.
METHODS:

Pretreatment and posttreatment cephalometric radiographs of 90 patients treated with mandibular advancement surgery by 57 consultant orthodontists in the United Kingdom before September 1998 were digitized, and cephalometric landmarks were identified. Paired samples t tests were used to compare the pretreatment and posttreatment cephalometric values for each patient. For each cephalometric variable, the proportion of patients falling within the ideal range was identified. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of achieving ideal range outcomes for the key skeletal (ANB and SNB angles), dental (overjet and overbite), and soft-tissue (Holdaway angle) measurements.
RESULTS:

An overjet within the ideal range of 1 to 4 mm was achieved in 72% of patients and was more likely with larger initial ANB angles. Horizontal correction of the incisor relationship was achieved by a combination of 75% skeletal movement and 25% dentoalveolar change. An ideal posttreatment ANB angle was achieved in 42% of patients and was more likely in females and those with larger pretreatment ANB angles. Ideal soft-tissue Holdaway angles (7 degrees to 14 degrees ) were achieved in 49% of patients and were more likely in females and those with smaller initial SNA angles. Mandibular incisor decompensation was incomplete in 28% of patients and was more likely in females and patients with greater pretreatment mandibular incisor proclination. Correction of increased overbite was generally successful, although anterior open bites were found in 16% of patients at the end of treatment. These patients were more likely to have had initial open bites.
CONCLUSIONS:

Mandibular surgery had a good success rate in normalizing the main dental and skeletal relationships. Less ideal soft-tissue profile outcomes were associated with larger pretreatment SNA-angle values, larger final mandibular incisor inclinations, and smaller final maxillary incisor inclinations. The use of mandibular surgery to correct anterior open bite was associated with poor outcomes.

Glycemic index, carbohydrate and fiber intakes and risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett’s esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma

Objective: To examine the association between dietary glycemic index (GI), glycemic load (GL), total carbohydrate, sugars, starch, and fiber intakes and the risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett’s esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Methods: In an all-Ireland study, dietary information was collected from patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma (n = 224), long-segment Barrett’s esophagus (n = 220), reflux esophagitis (n = 219), and population-based controls (n = 256). Multiple logistic regression analysis examined the association between dietary variables and disease risk by tertiles of intake and as continuous variables, while adjusting for potential confounders.

Results: Reflux esophagitis risk was positively associated with starch intake and negatively associated with sugar intake. Barrett’s esophagus risk was significantly reduced in people in the highest versus the lowest tertile of fiber intake (OR 0.44 95%CI 0.25–0.80). Fiber intake was also associated with a reduced risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma, as was total carbohydrate intake (OR 0.45 95%CI 0.33–0.61 per 50 g/d increase). However, an increased esophageal adenocarcinoma risk was detected per 10 unit increase in GI intake (OR 1.42 95%CI 1.07–1.89).

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that fiber intake is inversely associated with Barrett’s esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma risk. Esophageal adenocarcinoma risk is inversely associated with total carbohydrate consumption but positively associated with high GI intakes.

LDL particle size in habitual exercisers, lean sedentary men and abdominally obese sedentary men

Habitual exercisers enjoy considerable protection from coronary heart disease (CHD). Often, however, only modest differences in traditional CHD risk factors are apparent between habitual exercisers and their sedentary counterparts. For this reason, there is increasing interest in novel predictors of CHD, such as a preponderance of small, dense low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles. Polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis was used to separate lipoprotein subfractions in 32 lean exercisers, 36 lean sedentary men and 21 obese sedentary men aged 30-45 years. Well-validated equations were used to determine LDL concentration and peak particle diameter. Waist girth was used to identify lean (<100 cm) and obese ( >= 100cm) individuals. LDL concentration was lower in lean exercisers than in lean sedentary men (2.64 +/- 0.44 vs. 3.76 +/- 0.79 mmol.l(-1), p <0.001), suggesting that habitual exercise influences this risk factor. In contrast, there were no significant differences in LDL peak particle diameter between lean exercisers, lean sedentary men and obese sedentary men (27.92 +/- 0.67, 28.09 +/- 0.62 and 27.77 +/- 0.77 nm, respectively). In multiple linear regression analysis, triglyceride concentration was the only significant predictor of LDL PPD. These data suggest that habitual exercise influences LDL concentration but does not influence LDL particle size in men aged 30-45 years.

Inflammation markers are associated with Cardiovascular diseases risk in adolescents The Young Hearts Project 2000

Purose: The traditional approach for identifying subjects at risk from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is to determine the extent of clustering of biological risk factors adjusted for lifestyle. Recently, markers of endothelial dysfunction and low grade inflammation, including high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), soluble intercellular adhesion molecules (sICAM), and soluble vascular adhesion molecules (sVCAM), have been included in the detection for high risk individuals. However, the relationship of these novel biomarkers with CVD risk in adolescents remains unclear. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to establish the association of hsCRP, sICAM, and sVCAM with CVD risk in an adolescent population.
Methods: Data from the Young Hearts 2000 cross-sectional cohort study, carried out in 1999-2001, were used. From a total of 2,017 male and female participants, 95 obese subjects were identified and matched according to age, sex, and cigarette smoking, with 95 overweight and 95 normal-weight adolescents. Clustered CVD risk was computed using a sum of Z-scores of biological risk factors. The relationship was described using multiple linear regression analyses.
Results: hsCRP, sICAM, and sVCAM showed significant associations with CVD risk. hsCRP and sICAM had a positive relation with CVD risk, whereas sVCAM showed an inverse relationship. In this study, lifestyle factors showed no relation with CVD risk.
Conclusion: The results fit the hypothesized role of low grade inflammation and endothelial dysfunction in CVD risk in asymptomatic adolescents. The inverse relationship of VCAM, however, is hard to explain and indicates the complex mechanisms underlying CVD. Further research is needed to draw firm conclusions on the biomarkers used.

Identifying additional patients with diabetic nephropathy using the UK primary care initiative

AIMS:
The aim of this study was to use general practice data to estimate the prevalence of diabetic nephropathy within the registered diabetes patients and examine variation in practice prevalence and management performance since introduction of this initiative.
METHODS:
Reported quality indicators from the Northern Ireland General Practice Quality and Outcomes Framework were analysed for diabetes and diabetic nephropathy prevalence and management in the period 2004-2008. Variation in prevalence at practice level was assessed using multiple linear regression adjusting for age, practice size, deprivation and glycaemic control.
RESULTS:
In 2006-2007, 57,454 (4.1%) adult diabetic patients were registered in the denominator population of 1.4 million compared with 51,923 (3.8%) in 2004-2005 (mean practice range 0.5-7.7%). Diabetic nephropathy prevalence was 15.1 and 11.5%, respectively (8688 and 5955 patients). Documented diabetic nephropathy prevalence showed marked variation across practices (range 0-100%) and was significantly negatively correlated with diabetes list size, albumin creatinine ratio testing rates and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockade use and positively correlated with exception reporting rates. Specifically, for every increase in 100 diabetic patients to a register, documented diabetic nephropathy prevalence reduced by 40% (P=0.003). On the positive side, median albumin-creatinine ratio testing rates doubled to 82% compared with figures in the pre-Framework era.
CONCLUSIONS:
Implementation of the Northern Ireland General Practice Quality and Outcomes Framework has positively benefitted testing for diabetic nephropathy and increased numbers of detected patients in a short space of time. Large variation in diabetic nephropathy prevalence remains and is associated with diabetes registry size, screening and treatment practices, suggesting that understanding this variation may help detect and better manage diabetic nephropathy.

Impaired endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is a novel predictor of mortality in intensive care

Objective: Endothelial function may be impaired in critical illness. We hypothesized that impaired endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is a predictor of mortality in critically ill patients.
Design: Prospective observational cohort study.
Setting: Seventeen-bed adult intensive care unit in a tertiary referral university teaching hospital. Patients: Patients were recruited within 24 hrs of admission to the intensive care unit.
Interventions: The SphygmoCor Mx system was used to derive the aortic augmentation index from radial artery pulse pressure waveforms. Endothelium-dependent vasodilatation was calculated as the change in augmentation index in response to an endothelium-dependent vasodilator (salbutamol).
Measurements and Main Results: Demographics, severity of illness scores, and physiological parameters were collected. Statistically significant predictors of mortality identified using single regressor analysis were entered into a multiple logistic regression model. Receiver operator characteristic curves were generated. Ninety-four patients completed the study. There were 80 survivors and 14 nonsurvivors. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, leukocyte count, and endothelium-dependent vasodilatation conferred an increased risk of mortality. In logistic regression analysis, endothelium-dependent vasodilatation was the only predictor of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio of 26.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3-159.5). An endothelium-dependent vasodilatation value of 0.5% or less predicted intensive care unit mortality with a sensitivity of 79% (CI, 59-88%) and specificity of 98% (CI, 94-99%).
Conclusions: In vivo bedside assessment of endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is an independent predictor of mortality in the critically ill. We have shown it to be superior to other validated severity of illness scores with high sensitivity and specificity.

Vitamin D, calcium and dairy intake, and risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma and its precursor conditions

Evidence is accumulating that vitamin D may be protective against carcinogenesis, although exceptions have been observed for some digestive tract neoplasms. The aim of the present study was to explore the association between dietary vitamin D and related nutrients and the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma and its precursor conditions, Barrett's oesophagus and reflux oesophagitis. In an all-Ireland case-control study conducted between March 2002 and July 2005, 218 oesophageal adenocarcinoma patients, 212 Barrett's oesophagus patients, 208 reflux oesophagitis patients and 252 population-based controls completed a 101-item FFQ, and provided lifestyle and demographic information. Multiple logistic regression analysis was applied to examine the association between dietary intake and disease risk. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk was significantly greater for individuals with the highest compared with the lowest tertile of vitamin D intake (OR 1·99, 95 % CI 1·03, 3·86; P for trend = 0·02). The direct association could not be attributed to a particular vitamin D food source. Vitamin D intake was unrelated to Barrett's oesophagus and reflux oesophagitis risk. No significant associations were observed for Ca or dairy intake and oesophageal adenocarcinoma, Barrett's oesophagus or reflux oesophagitis development. High vitamin D intake may increase oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk but is not related to reflux oesophagitis and Barrett's oesophagus. Ca and dairy product intake did not influence the development of these oesophageal lesions. These findings suggest that there may be population subgroups at an increased risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma if advice to improve vitamin D intake from foods is implemented. Limited work has been conducted in this area, and further research is required.

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and the esophageal inflammation-metaplasia-adenocarcinoma sequence

Observational studies suggest that nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) reduce the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma, but it is not known at what stage they may act in the esophageal inflammation-metaplasia-adenocarcinoma sequence. In an all-Ireland case-control study, we investigated the relationship between the use of NSAIDs and risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma, long-segment Barrett's esophagus and population controls were recruited from throughout Ireland. Esophagitis patients were recruited from Northern Ireland only. Data were collected on known and potential risk factors for esophageal adenocarcinoma and on the use of NSAIDs, including aspirin, at least 1 year before interview. Associations between use of NSAIDs and the stages of the esophageal inflammation-metaplasia-adenocarcinoma sequence were estimated by multiple logistic regression. In total, 230 reflux esophagitis, 224 Barrett's esophagus, and 227 esophageal adenocarcinoma and 260 population controls were recruited. Use of aspirin and NSAIDs was associated with a reduced risk of Barrett's esophagus [odds ratio [OR; 95% confidence interval (95% CI)], 0.53 (0.31-0.90) and 0.40 (0.19-0.81), respectively] and esophageal adenocarcinoma [OR (95% CI), 0.57 (0.36-0.93) and 0.58 (0.31-1.08), respectively]. Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma patients were less likely than controls to have used NSAIDs. Selection or recall bias may explain these results and the results of previous observational studies indicating a protective effect of NSAIDs against esophageal adenocarcinoma. If NSAIDs have a true protective effect on the esophageal inflammation-metaplasia-adenocarcinoma sequence, they may act early in the sequence.

Dietary fat and meat intakes and risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma

The aim of our study was to investigate whether dietary fat and meat intakes are associated with reflux esophagitis (RE), Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). In this all-Ireland case-control study, dietary intake data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire in 219 RE patients, 220 BE patients, 224 EAC patients and 256 frequency-matched controls between 2002 and 2005. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between dietary variables and disease risk using quartiles of intake, to attain odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), while adjusting for potential confounders. Patients in the highest quartile of total fat intake had a higher risk of RE (OR = 3.54; 95% CI = 1.32-9.46) and EAC (OR = 5.44; 95% CI = 2.08-14.27). A higher risk of RE and EAC was also reported for patients in the highest quartile of saturated fat intake (OR = 2.79; 95% CI = 1.11-7.04; OR = 2.41; 95% CI = 1.14-5.08, respectively) and monounsaturated fat intake (OR = 2.63; 95% CI = 1.01-6.86; OR = 5.35; 95% CI = 2.14-13.34, respectively). Patients in the highest quartile of fresh red meat intake had a higher risk of EAC (OR = 3.15; 95% CI = 1.38-7.20). Patients in the highest category of processed meat intake had a higher risk of RE (OR = 4.67; 95% CI = 1.71-12.74). No consistent associations were seen for BE with either fat or meat intakes. Further studies investigating the association between dietary fat and food sources of fat are needed to confirm these results.

Quantitative structure-toxicity relationships for chlorophenols to bioluminescent lux-marked bacteria using atom-based semi-empirical molecular-orbital descriptors

Literature data on the toxicity of chlorophenols for three luminescent bacteria (Vibrio fischeri, and the lux-marked Pseudomonas fluorescens 10586s pUCD607 and Burkholderia spp. RASC c2 (Tn4431)) have been analyzed in relation to a set of computed molecular physico-chemical properties. The quantitative structure-toxicity relationships of the compounds in each species showed marked differences when based upon semi-empirical molecular-orbital molecular and atom based properties. For mono-, di- and tri-chlorophenols multiple linear regression analysis of V. fischeri toxicity showed a good correlation with the solvent accessible surface area and the charge on the oxygen atom. This correlation successfully predicted the toxicity of the heavily chlorinated phenols, suggesting in V. fischeri only one overall mechanism is present for all chlorophenols. Good correlations were also found for RASC c2 with molecular properties, such as the surface area and the nucleophilic super-delocalizability of the oxygen. In contrast the best QSTR for P. fluorescens contained the 2nd order connectivity index and ELUMO suggesting a different, more reactive mechanism. Cross-species correlations were examined, and between V. fischeri and RASC c2 the inclusion of the minimum value of the nucleophilic susceptibility on the ring carbons produced good results. Poorer correlations were found with P. fluorescens highlighting the relative similarity of V. fischeri and RASC c2, in contrast to that of P. fluorescens.

Stress processes in caring for an end-of-life family member:Application of a theoretical model

Objectives: Family caregivers play a vital role in maintaining the lives of individuals with advanced illness living in the community. However, the responsibility of caregiving for an end-of-life family member can have profound consequences on the psychological, physical and financial well-being of the caregiver. While the literature has identified caregiver stress or strain as a complex process with multiple contributing factors, few comprehensive studies exist. This study examined a wide range of theory-driven variables contributing to family caregiver stress. Method: Data variables from interviews with primary family caregivers were mapped onto the factors within the Stress Process Model theoretical framework. A hierarchical multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the strongest predictors of caregiver strain as measured by a validated composite index, the Caregiver Strain Index. Results: The study included 132 family caregivers across south-central/western Ontario, Canada. About half of these caregivers experienced high strain, the extent of which was predicted by lower perceived program accessibility, lower functional social support, greater weekly amount of time caregivers committed to the care recipient, younger caregiver age and poorer caregiver self-perceived health. Conclusion: This study examined the influence of a multitude of factors in the Stress Process Model on family caregiver strain, finding stress to be a multidimensional construct. Perceived program accessibility was the strongest predictor of caregiver strain, more so than intensity of care, highlighting the importance of the availability of community resources to support the family caregiving role.