Mapping Ireland’s Energy Pathways: Characterizing and Catalyzing Transition

In 2015 Ireland has arguably begun to make its first bold steps in confronting the challenges of energy transition, with the objective of a “low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by the end of the
year 2050” expressed in the 2015 Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill and the 2015 Energy Bill acknowledging that energy transformation relied on a new breed of ‘energy citizens’. These represent the first formal articulation of Ireland’s ambition to engage in a radical, long-term and far-reaching transition process, and raises a myriad of questions over how this can be operationalised, resourced and whether it can maintain political momentum. A range of perspectives on these issues is provided in the growing body of literature on transition theories (Rotmans et al 2001, Markard et al 2012) and the inter-disciplinary EPA-funded CC Transitions project, based at Queen’s University Belfast, represents an attempt to translate this into the context of Ireland’s institutions and technological profile. By relating this to international research on sustainability transitions, which conceptualises transitions as multi-level, multi-phase and multi-actor processes, this paper will explore the opportunities of alternative pathways that could take Ireland towards a more progressing, inclusive and effective low carbon future. Drawing on a number of case studies it will highlight some of the capacities for transition required in Irish society: where these exist, how they are being built or enabled, and the barriers to wider social change.

Multi-purpose utility of circulating plasma DNA testing in patients with advanced cancers.

Tumor genomic instability and selective treatment pressures result in clonal disease evolution; molecular stratification for molecularly targeted drug administration requires repeated access to tumor DNA. We hypothesized that circulating plasma DNA (cpDNA) in advanced cancer patients is largely derived from tumor, has prognostic utility, and can be utilized for multiplex tumor mutation sequencing when repeat biopsy is not feasible. We utilized the Sequenom MassArray System and OncoCarta panel for somatic mutation profiling. Matched samples, acquired from the same patient but at different time points were evaluated; these comprised formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) archival tumor tissue (primary and/or metastatic) and cpDNA. The feasibility, sensitivity, and specificity of this high-throughput, multiplex mutation detection approach was tested utilizing specimens acquired from 105 patients with solid tumors referred for participation in Phase I trials of molecularly targeted drugs. The median cpDNA concentration was 17 ng/ml (range: 0.5-1600); this was 3-fold higher than in healthy volunteers. Moreover, higher cpDNA concentrations associated with worse overall survival; there was an overall survival (OS) hazard ratio of 2.4 (95% CI 1.4, 4.2) for each 10-fold increase in cpDNA concentration and in multivariate analyses, cpDNA concentration, albumin, and performance status remained independent predictors of OS. These data suggest that plasma DNA in these cancer patients is largely derived from tumor. We also observed high detection concordance for critical 'hot-spot' mutations (KRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA) in matched cpDNA and archival tumor tissue, and important differences between archival tumor and cpDNA. This multiplex sequencing assay can be utilized to detect somatic mutations from plasma in advanced cancer patients, when safe repeat tumor biopsy is not feasible and genomic analysis of archival tumor is deemed insufficient. Overall, circulating nucleic acid biomarker studies have clinically important multi-purpose utility in advanced cancer patients and further studies to pursue their incorporation into the standard of care are warranted.

The Coxian Phase-type distribution with a Hidden Node

Healthcare providers are under increased pressure to ensure that the quality
of care delivered to patients are off the highest standard. Modelling quality of
care is difficult due to the many ways of defining it. This paper introduces a potential
model which could be used to take quality of care into account when modelling
length of stay. The Coxian phase-type distribution is used to model length of stay
and quality of care incorporated into this using a Hidden Markov model. This model
is then applied to

A multi vector energy analysis for interconnected power and gas systems

This paper presents the first multi vector energy analysis for the interconnected energy systems of Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Both systems share a common high penetration of wind power, but significantly different security of supply outlooks. Ireland is heavily dependent on gas imports from GB, giving significance to the interconnected aspect of the methodology in addition to the gas and power interactions analysed. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model coupled to an energy flow model of the gas supply network is developed. Extreme weather events driving increased domestic gas demand and low wind power output were utilised to increase gas supply network stress. Decreased wind profiles had a larger impact on system security than high domestic gas demand. However, the GB energy system was resilient during high demand periods but gas network stress limited the ramping capability of localised generating units. Additionally, gas system entry node congestion in the Irish system was shown to deliver a 40% increase in short run costs for generators. Gas storage was shown to reduce the impact of high demand driven congestion delivering a reduction in total generation costs of 14% in the period studied and reducing electricity imports from GB, significantly contributing to security of supply.

A phase I pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic study of the oral mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MEK) inhibitor, WX-554, in patients with advanced solid tumours

Purpose: We performed a multi-centre phase I study to assess the safety, pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of the orally available small molecule mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MEK) 1/2 inhibitor, WX-554, and to determine the optimal biological dose for subsequent trials.
Experimental design: Patients with treatment-refractory, advanced solid tumours, with adequate performance status and organ function were recruited to a dose-escalation study in a standard 3 + 3 design. The starting dose was 25 mg orally once weekly with toxicity, PK and PD guided dose-escalation with potential to explore alternative schedules.
Results: Forty-one patients with advanced solid tumours refractory to standard therapies and with adequate organ function were recruited in eight cohorts up to doses of 150 mg once weekly and 75 mg twice weekly. No dose-limiting toxicities were observed during the study, and a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) was not established. The highest dose cohorts demonstrated sustained inhibition of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) phosphorylation in peripheral blood mononuclear cells following ex-vivo phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate stimulation. There was a decrease of 70 ± 26% in mean phosphorylated (p)ERK in C1 day 8 tumour biopsies when compared with pre-treatment tumour levels in the 75 mg twice a week cohort. Prolonged stable disease (>6 months) was seen in two patients, one with cervical cancer and one with ampullary carcinoma.
Conclusions: WX-554 was well tolerated, and an optimal biological dose was established for further investigation in either a once or twice weekly regimens. The recommended phase 2 dose is 75 mg twice weekly.

A New Technique for Studying Vapour–liquid Equilibria of Multi-Component Systems

A Fourier transform infrared gas-phase method is described herein and capable of deriving the vapour pressure of each pure component of a poorly volatile mixture and determining the relative vapour phase composition for each system. The performance of the present method has been validated using two standards (naphthalene and ferrocene), and a Raoult’s plot surface of a ternary system is reported as proof-of-principle. This technique is ideal for studying solutions comprising two, three, or more organic compounds dissolved in ionic liquids as they have no measurable vapour pressures.