Multi-agents modelling of EV purchase willingness based on questionnaires

Traditional experimental economics methods often consume enormous resources of qualified human participants, and the inconsistence of a participant’s decisions among repeated trials prevents investigation from sensitivity analyses. The problem can be solved if computer agents are capable of generating similar behaviors as the given participants in experiments. An experimental economics based analysis method is presented to extract deep information from questionnaire data and emulate any number of participants. Taking the customers’ willingness to purchase electric vehicles (EVs) as an example, multi-layer correlation information is extracted from a limited number of questionnaires. Multi-agents mimicking the inquired potential customers are modelled through matching the probabilistic distributions of their willingness embedded in the questionnaires. The authenticity of both the model and the algorithm is validated by comparing the agent-based Monte Carlo simulation results with the questionnaire-based deduction results. With the aid of agent models, the effects of minority agents with specific preferences on the results are also discussed.

Possibility of designing catalysts beyond the traditional volcano curve: A theoretical framework for multi-phase surfaces

The current theory of catalyst activity in heterogeneous catalysis is mainly obtained from the study of catalysts with mono-phases, while most catalysts in real systems consist of multi-phases, the understanding of which is far short of chemists' expectation. Density functional theory (DFT) and micro-kinetics simulations are used to investigate the activities of six mono-phase and nine bi-phase catalysts, using CO hydrogenation that is arguably the most typical reaction in heterogeneous catalysis. Excellent activities that are beyond the activity peak of traditional mono-phase volcano curves are found on some bi-phase surfaces. By analyzing these results, a new framework to understand the unexpected activities of bi-phase surfaces is proposed. Based on the framework, several principles for the design of multi-phase catalysts are suggested. The theoretical framework extends the traditional catalysis theory to understand more complex systems.

Performance enhancement of polymer nanocomposites via multiscale modelling of processing and properties

This paper provides an overview of research on modelling of the structure–property interactions of polymer nanocomposites in manufacturing processes (stretch blow moulding and thermoforming) involving large-strain biaxial stretching of relatively thin sheets, aimed at developing computer modelling tools to help producers of materials, product designers and manufacturers exploit these materials to the full, much more quickly than could be done by experimental methods alone. The exemplar systems studied are polypropylene and polyester terephalate, with nanoclays. These were compounded and extruded into 2mm thick sheet which was then biaxially stretched at 155°C for the PP and 90 to 100°C for the PET. Mechanical properties were determined for the unstretched and stretched materials, together with TEM and XRD studies of structure. Multi-scale modelling, using representative volume elements is used to model the properties of these products.

Behavioural context of multi-scale species distribution models assessed by radio-tracking

Incorporating ecological processes and animal behaviour into Species Distribution Models (SDMs) is difficult. In species with a central resting or breeding place, there can be conflict between the environmental requirements of the 'central place' and foraging habitat. We apply a multi-scale SDM to examine habitat trade-offs between the central place, roost sites, and foraging habitat in . Myotis nattereri. We validate these derived associations using habitat selection from behavioural observations of radio-tracked bats. A Generalised Linear Model (GLM) of roost occurrence using land cover variables with mixed spatial scales indicated roost occurrence was positively associated with woodland on a fine scale and pasture on a broad scale. Habitat selection of radio-tracked bats mirrored the SDM with bats selecting for woodland in the immediate vicinity of individual roosts but avoiding this habitat in foraging areas, whilst pasture was significantly positively selected for in foraging areas. Using habitat selection derived from radio-tracking enables a multi-scale SDM to be interpreted in a behavioural context. We suggest that the multi-scale SDM of . M. nattereri describes a trade-off between the central place and foraging habitat. Multi-scale methods provide a greater understanding of the ecological processes which determine where species occur and allow integration of behavioural processes into SDMs. The findings have implications when assessing the resource use of a species at a single point in time. Doing so could lead to misinterpretation of habitat requirements as these can change within a short time period depending on specific behaviour, particularly if detectability changes depending on behaviour. © 2011 Gesellschaft für ökologie.

A kinetic analysis methodology to elucidate the roles of metal, support and solvent for the hydrogenation of 4-phenyl-2-butanone over Pt/TiO2

The rate and, more importantly, selectivity (ketone vs aromatic ring) of the hydrogenation of 4-phenyl-2-butanone over a Pt/TiO2 catalyst have been shown to vary with solvent. In this study, a fundamental kinetic model for this multi-phase reaction has been developed incorporating statistical analysis methods to strengthen the foundations of mechanistically sound kinetic models. A 2-site model was determined to be most appropriate, describing aromatic hydrogenation (postulated to be over a platinum site) and ketone hydrogenation (postulated to be at the platinum–titania interface). Solvent choice has little impact on the ketone hydrogenation rate constant but strongly impacts aromatic hydrogenation due to solvent-catalyst interaction. Reaction selectivity is also correlated to a fitted product adsorption constant parameter. The kinetic analysis method shown has demonstrated the role of solvents in influencing reactant adsorption and reaction selectivity.

Solvent effects in the hydrogenation of 2-butanone

In liquid-phase reaction systems, the role of the solvent is often limited to the simple requirement of dissolving and/or diluting substrates. However, the correct choice, either pure or mixed, can significantly influence both reaction rate and selectivity. For multi-phase heterogeneously catalysed reactions observed variations may be due to changes in mass transfer rates, reaction mechanism, reaction kinetics, adsorption properties and combinations thereof. The liquid-phase hydrogenation of 2-butanone to 2-butanol over a Ru/SiO catalyst, for example, shows such complex rate behaviour when varying water/isopropyl alcohol (IPA) solvent ratios. In this paper, we outline a strategy which combines measured rate data with physical property measurements and molecular simulation in order to gain a more fundamental understanding of mixed solvent effects for this heterogeneously catalysed reaction. By combining these techniques, the observed complex behaviour of rate against water fraction is shown to be a combination of both mass transfer and chemical effects. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numbered-up gas-liquid micro/milli channels reactor with modular flow distributor

Gas-liquid processing in microreactors remains mostly restricted to the laboratory scale due to the complexity and expenditure needed for an adequate numbering-up with a uniform flow distribution. Here, the numbering-up is presented for multi-phase (gas-liquid) flow in microreactor suitable for a production capacity of kg/h. Based on the barrier channels concept, the barrier-based micro/milli reactor (BMMR) is designed and fabricated to deliver flow non-uniformity of less than 10%. The BMMR consists of eight parallel channels all operated in the Taylor flow regime and with a liquid flow rate up to 150. mL/min. The quality of the flow distribution is reported by studying two aspects. The first aspect is the influence of different viscosities, surface tensions and flow rates. The second aspect is the influence of modularity by testing three different reaction channels type: (1) square channels fabricated in a stainless steel plate, (2) square channels fabricated in a glass plate, and (3) circular channels (capillaries) made of stainless steel. Additionally, the BMMR is compared to that of a single channel regard the slug and bubble lengths and bubble generation frequency. The results pave the ground for bringing multi-phase flow in microreactor one step closer for large scale production via numbering-up. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Outcomes and process in reading tutoring

Background: Large-scale randomised controlled trials are relatively rare in education. The present study approximates to, but is not exactly, a randomised controlled trial. It was an attempt to scale up previous small peer tutoring projects, while investing only modestly in continuing professional development for teachers.Purpose: A two-year study of peer tutoring in reading was undertaken in one local education authority in Scotland. The relative effectiveness of cross-age versus same-age tutoring, light versus intensive intervention, and reading versus reading and mathematics tutoring were investigated.Programme description (if relevant): The intervention was Paired Reading, a freely available cross-ability tutoring method applied to books of the pupils' choice but above the tutee's independent readability level. It involves Reading Together and Reading Alone, and switching from one to the other according to need.Sample: Eighty-seven primary schools of overall average socio-economic status, ability and gender in one council in Scotland. There were few ethnic minority students. Proportions of students with special needs were low. Children were eight and 10 years old as the intervention started. Macro-evaluation n = 3520. Micro-evaluation Year 1 15 schools n = 592, Year 2 a different 15 schools n = 591, compared with a comparison group of five schools n = 240.Design and methods: Almost all the primary schools in the local authority participated and were randomly allocated to condition. A macro-evaluation tested and retested over a two-year period using Performance Indicators in Primary Schools. A micro-evaluation tested and retested within each year using norm-referenced tests of reading comprehension. Macro-evaluation was with multi-level modelling, micro-evaluation with descriptive statistics and effect sizes, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA).Results: Macro-evaluation yielded significant pre-post gains in reading attainment for cross-age tutoring over both years. No other differences were significant. Micro-evaluation yielded pre-post changes in Year 1 (selected) and Year 2 (random) greater than controls, with no difference between same-age and cross-age tutoring. Light and intensive tutoring were equally effective. Tutoring reading and mathematics together was more effective than only tutoring reading. Lower socio-economic and lower reading ability students did better. Girls did better than boys. Regarding observed implementation quality, some factors were high and others low. Few implementation variables correlated with attainment gain.Conclusions: Paired Reading tutoring does lead to better reading attainment compared with students not participating. This is true in the long term (macro-evaluation) for cross-age tutoring, and in the short term (micro-evaluation) for both cross-age and same-age tutoring. Tutors and tutees benefited. Intensity had no effect but dual tutoring did have an effect. Low-socio-economic status, low-ability and female students did better. The results of the different forms of evaluation were indeed different. There are implications for practice and for future research. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Family-based associations in measures of psychological distress and quality of life in a cardiac screening clinic for inheritable cardiac diseases: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Family-based cardiac screening programmes for persons at risk for genetic cardiac diseases are now recommended. However, the psychological wellbeing and health related quality of life (QoL) of such screened patients is poorly understood, especially in younger patients. We sought to examine wellbeing and QoL in a representative group of adults aged 16 and over in a dedicated family cardiac screening clinic.

METHODS: Prospective survey of consecutive consenting patients attending a cardiac screening clinic, over a 12 month period. Data were collected using two health measurement tools: the Short Form 12 (version 2) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), along with baseline demographic and screening visit-related data. The HADS and SF-12v.2 outcomes were compared by age group. Associations with a higher HADS score were examined using logistic regression, with multi-level modelling used to account for the family-based structure of the data.

RESULTS: There was a study response rate of 86.6%, with n=334 patients providing valid HADS data (valid response rate 79.5%), and data on n=316 retained for analysis. One-fifth of patients were aged under 25 (n=61). Younger patients were less likely than older to describe significant depression on their HADS scale (p<0.0001), although there were overall no difference between the prevalence of a significant HADS score between the younger and older age groups (18.0% vs 20.0%, p=0.73). Significant positive associates of a higher HADS score were having lower educational attainment, being single or separated, and being closely related to the family proband. Between-family variance in anxiety and depression scores was greater than within-family variance.

CONCLUSIONS: High levels of anxiety were seen amongst patients attending a family-based cardiac screening clinic.Younger patients also had high rates of clinically significant anxiety. Higher levels of anxiety and depression tends to run in families, and this has implications for family screening and intervention programmes.

Seasonality of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: a systematic review

Background: Although Plasmodium falciparum transmission frequently exhibits seasonal patterns, the drivers of malaria seasonality are often unclear. Given the massive variation in the landscape upon which transmission acts, intra-annual fluctuations are likely influenced by different factors in different settings. Further, the presence of potentially substantial inter-annual variation can mask seasonal patterns; it may be that a location has "strongly seasonal" transmission and yet no single season ever matches the mean, or synoptic, curve. Accurate accounting of seasonality can inform efficient malaria control and treatment strategies. In spite of the demonstrable importance of accurately capturing the seasonality of malaria, data required to describe these patterns is not universally accessible and as such localized and regional efforts at quantifying malaria seasonality are disjointed and not easily generalized. 

Methods: The purpose of this review was to audit the literature on seasonality of P. falciparum and quantitatively summarize the collective findings. Six search terms were selected to systematically compile a list of papers relevant to the seasonality of P. falciparum transmission, and a questionnaire was developed to catalogue the manuscripts. 

Results and discussion: 152 manuscripts were identified as relating to the seasonality of malaria transmission, deaths due to malaria or the population dynamics of mosquito vectors of malaria. Among these, there were 126 statistical analyses and 31 mechanistic analyses (some manuscripts did both). 

Discussion: Identified relationships between temporal patterns in malaria and climatological drivers of malaria varied greatly across the globe, with different drivers appearing important in different locations. Although commonly studied drivers of malaria such as temperature and rainfall were often found to significantly influence transmission, the lags between a weather event and a resulting change in malaria transmission also varied greatly by location. 

Conclusions: The contradicting results of studies using similar data and modelling approaches from similar locations as well as the confounding nature of climatological covariates underlines the importance of a multi-faceted modelling approach that attempts to capture seasonal patterns at both small and large spatial scales.

Mapping Ireland’s Energy Pathways: Characterizing and Catalyzing Transition

In 2015 Ireland has arguably begun to make its first bold steps in confronting the challenges of energy transition, with the objective of a “low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by the end of the
year 2050” expressed in the 2015 Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill and the 2015 Energy Bill acknowledging that energy transformation relied on a new breed of ‘energy citizens’. These represent the first formal articulation of Ireland’s ambition to engage in a radical, long-term and far-reaching transition process, and raises a myriad of questions over how this can be operationalised, resourced and whether it can maintain political momentum. A range of perspectives on these issues is provided in the growing body of literature on transition theories (Rotmans et al 2001, Markard et al 2012) and the inter-disciplinary EPA-funded CC Transitions project, based at Queen’s University Belfast, represents an attempt to translate this into the context of Ireland’s institutions and technological profile. By relating this to international research on sustainability transitions, which conceptualises transitions as multi-level, multi-phase and multi-actor processes, this paper will explore the opportunities of alternative pathways that could take Ireland towards a more progressing, inclusive and effective low carbon future. Drawing on a number of case studies it will highlight some of the capacities for transition required in Irish society: where these exist, how they are being built or enabled, and the barriers to wider social change.

Experimental and Modelling Studies of the Thermodynamics and Kinetics of Phase and Structural Transformations in a Gamma TiAl-based Alloy

This work combines microscopy, synchrotron radiation X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry and thermodynamic calculations in the characterisation of phase transformation behaviour of a Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy upon continuous heating at constant rates. It has been found that the Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy after being forged at 1200 °C without further treatment has a duplex microstructure consisting of fine equiaxed and lamellar ? grains with a small amount of a2 plates and particles and about 1 wt.% B2 phase. Differential scanning calorimetry revealed reproducibly several thermal effects upon heating of the as-forged alloy. These thermal effects are related to the equilibration and homogenisation of the sample, change of phase ratios between a2, ? and B2 phases in particular the increase of B2 in respect to a2 and ?, and the following five phase transformations: a2 + ? + B2 a + ? + B2, a + ? + B2 a + ?, ? + a a, a a + ß, a + ß a + ß + L. The observation of these transformations by differential scanning calorimetry is largely in agreement with literature phase diagrams and thermodynamic calculations, though care is needed to consider the different alloy compositions. Kinetics of the ? + a a phase transformation in the Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy has been quantitatively derived from the calorimetry data, giving phase compositions at any point during the transformation upon continuous heating.