Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources

In two experiments we tested the prediction derived from Tversky and Kahneman's (1983) work on the causal conjunction fallacy that the strength of the causal connection between constituent events directly affects the magnitude of the causal conjunction fallacy. We also explored whether any effects of perceived causal strength were due to graded output from heuristic Type 1 reasoning processes or the result of analytic Type 2 reasoning processes. As predicted, Experiment 1 demonstrated that fallacy rates were higher for strongly than for weakly related conjunctions. Weakly related conjunctions in turn attracted higher rates of fallacious responding than did unrelated conjunctions. Experiment 2 showed that a concurrent memory load increased rates of fallacious responding for strongly related but not for weakly related conjunctions. We interpret these results as showing that manipulations of the strength of the perceived causal relationship between the conjuncts result in graded output from heuristic reasoning process and that additional mental resources are required to suppress strong heuristic output.

Dietary antioxidant and mineral intake in humans is associated with reduced risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma but not reflux esophagitis or Barrett's esophagus

The role of antioxidants in the pathogenesis of reflux esophagitis (RE), Barrett's esophagus (BE), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) remains unknown. We evaluated the associations among dietary antioxidant intake and these diseases. We performed an assessment of dietary antioxidant intake in a case control study of RE (n = 219), BE (n = 220), EAC (n = 224), and matched population controls (n = 256) (the Factors Influencing the Barrett's Adenocarcinoma Relationship study) using a modification of a validated FFQ. We found that overall antioxidant index, a measure of the combined intake of vitamin C, vitamin E, total carotenoids, and selenium, was associated with a reduced risk of EAC [odds ratio (OR) = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.33-0.98], but not BE (OR = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.53-1.71) or RE (OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 0.86-2.98), for those in the highest compared with lowest category of intake. Those in the highest category of vitamin C intake had a lower risk of EAC (OR = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.21-0.66; P-trend = 0.001) and RE (OR = 0.46; 95% CI = 0.24-0.90; P-trend = 0.03) compared with those in the lowest category. Vitamin C intake was not associated with BE, and intake of vitamin E, total carotenoids, zinc, copper, or selenium was not associated with EAC, BE, or RE. In conclusion, the overall antioxidant index was associated with a reduced risk of EAC. Higher dietary intake of vitamin C was associated with a reduced risk of EAC and RE. These results suggest that antioxidants may play a role in the pathogenesis of RE and EAC and may be more important in terms of progression rather than initiation of the disease process.

How Porosity and Permeability Vary Spatially With Grain Size, Sorting, Cement Volume, and Mineral Dissolution In Fluvial Triassic Sandstones: The Value of Geostatistics and Local Regression

Although it is well known that sandstone porosity and permeability are controlled by a range of parameters such as grain size and sorting, amount, type, and location of diagenetic cements, extent and type of compaction, and the generation of intergranular and intragranular secondary porosity, it is less constrained how these controlling parameters link up in rock volumes (within and between beds) and how they spatially interact to determine porosity and permeability. To address these unknowns, this study examined Triassic fluvial sandstone outcrops from the UK using field logging, probe permeametry of 200 points, and sampling at 100 points on a gridded rock surface. These field observations were supplemented by laser particle-size analysis, thin-section point-count analysis of primary and diagenetic mineralogy, quantitiative XRD mineral analysis, and SEM/EDAX analysis of all 100 samples. These data were analyzed using global regression, variography, kriging, conditional simulation, and geographically weighted regression to examine the spatial relationships between porosity and permeability and their potential controls. The results of bivariate analysis (global regression) of the entire outcrop dataset indicate only a weak correlation between both permeability porosity and their diagenetic and depositional controls and provide very limited information on the role of primary textural structures such as grain size and sorting. Subdividing the dataset further by bedding unit revealed details of more local controls on porosity and permeability. An alternative geostatistical approach combined with a local modelling technique (geographically weighted regression; GWR) subsequently was used to examine the spatial variability of porosity and permeability and their controls. The use of GWR does not require prior knowledge of divisions between bedding units, but the results from GWR broadly concur with results of regression analysis by bedding unit and provide much greater clarity of how porosity and permeability and their controls vary laterally and vertically. The close relationship between depositional lithofacies in each bed, diagenesis, and permeability, porosity demonstrates that each influences the other, and in turn how understanding of reservoir properties is enhanced by integration of paleoenvironmental reconstruction, stratigraphy, mineralogy, and geostatistics.

Accumulating research: a systematic account of how cumulative meta-analyses would have provided knowledge, improved health, reduced harm and saved resources

BACKGROUND: "Cumulative meta-analysis" describes a statistical procedure to calculate, retrospectively, summary estimates from the results of similar trials every time the results of a further trial in the series had become available. In the early 1990 s, comparisons of cumulative meta-analyses of treatments for myocardial infarction with advice promulgated through medical textbooks showed that research had continued long after robust estimates of treatment effects had accumulated, and that medical textbooks had overlooked strong, existing evidence from trials. Cumulative meta-analyses have subsequently been used to assess what could have been known had new studies been informed by systematic reviews of relevant existing evidence and how waste might have been reduced.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a systematic approach to identify and summarise the findings of cumulative meta-analyses of studies of the effects of clinical interventions, published from 1992 to 2012. Searches were done of PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Methodology Register and Science Citation Index. A total of 50 eligible reports were identified, including more than 1,500 cumulative meta-analyses. A variety of themes are illustrated with specific examples. The studies showed that initially positive results became null or negative in meta-analyses as more trials were done; that early null or negative results were over-turned; that stable results (beneficial, harmful and neutral) would have been seen had a meta-analysis been done before the new trial; and that additional trials had been much too small to resolve the remaining uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS: This large, unique collection of cumulative meta-analyses highlights how a review of the existing evidence might have helped researchers, practitioners, patients and funders make more informed decisions and choices about new trials over decades of research. This would have led to earlier uptake of effective interventions in practice, less exposure of trial participants to less effective treatments, and reduced waste resulting from unjustified research.

Availability and transfer to grain of As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in a barley agri-system: Impact of biochar, organic and mineral fertilizers

With biochar becoming an emerging soil amendment and a tool to mitigate climate change, there are only a few studies documenting its effects on trace element cycling in agriculture. Zn and Cu are deficient in many human diets, whilst exposures to As, Pb and Cd need to be decreased. Biochar has been shown to affect many of them mainly at a bench or greenhouse scale, but field research is not available. In our experiment we studied the impact of biochar, as well as its interactions with organic (compost and sewage sludge) and mineral fertilisers (NPK and nitrosulfate), on trace element mobility in a Mediterranean agricultural field (east of Madrid, Spain) cropped with barley. At harvesting time, we analysed the soluble fraction, the available fraction (assessed with the diffusive gradients in thin gels technique, DGT) and the concentration of trace elements in barley grain. No treatment was able to significantly increase Zn, Cu or Ni concentration in barley grain, limiting the application for cereal fortification. Biochar helped to reduce Cd and Pb in grain, whereas As concentration slightly increased. Overall biochar amendments demonstrated a potential to decrease Cd uptake in cereals, a substantial pathway of exposure in the Spanish population, whereas mineral fertilisation and sewage sludge increased grain Cd and Pb. In the soil, biochar helped to stabilise Pb and Cd, while marginally increasing As release/mobilisation. Some of the fertilisation practises or treatments increased toxic metals and As solubility in soil, but never to an extent high enough to be considered an environmental risk. Future research may try to fortify Zn, Cu and Ni using other combinations of organic amendments and different parent biomass to produce enriched biochars.