Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.

Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

Objectives: To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses. Design: Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination. Setting: Northern Ireland. Main outcome measure: Intensity of use of inpatient services. Results: After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.

Hidden Gems: systematically searching electronic databases for research publications for social work and social care.

Context: Electronic bibliographic databases are a key source for professional publications about social work and community care more generally. This article describes and evaluates a method of identifying relevant articles as part of a systematic review of research evidence. Decision making about institutional and home care services for older people is used as an example. Method: Four databases (Social Science Citation Index, Medline, CINAHL, and Caredata) that abstract publications relevant to health and social services were searched systematically to identify relevant research studies. The items retrieved were appraised independently using a standard form developed for the purpose. The searches were compared in terms of sensitivity, precision, overlap between databases, and inter-rater reliability. Results: The search retrieved 525 articles, of which 276 were relevant. The four databases retrieved 55%, 41%, 19%, and 1% of the relevant articles respectively, achieving these sensitivities with precision levels of 54%, 48%, 84% and 94%. The databases retrieved 116, 73, 24 and 15 unique relevant articles respectively, showing the need to use a range of databases. Discussion: A general approach to creating a search to retrieve relevant research has been developed. The development of an international, indexed database dedicated to literature relevant to social services is a priority to enable progress in evidence-based policy and practice in social work. Editors and researchers should consider using structured abstracts in order to improve the retrieval and dissemination of research.