This Time is Different: Causes and Consequences of British Banking Instability over the Long Run

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How severe were the episodes of banking instability
experienced by the UK over the past two centuries? (2) What have been the macroeconomic
indicators of UK banking instability? and (3) What have been the consequences of UK banking
instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830 to 2010
to assess the stability of the UK banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more
severe since the 1970s. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth, and equity
prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long run.
Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields for the period 1860 to 2010, we
find that there is a significant long-run relationship between banking instability and the creditrisk
premium faced by businesses.

Environmental Isotopes as Indicators for Ground Water Recharge to Fractured Granite

To assess the contribution of accumulated winter precipitation and glacial meltwater to the recharge of deep ground water flow systems in fracture crystalline rocks, measurements of environmental isotope ratios, hydrochemical composition, and in situ parameters of ground water were performed in a deep tunnel. The measurements demonstrate the significance of these ground water recharge components for deep ground water flow systems in fractured granites of a high alpine catchment in the Central Alps, Switzerland. Hydrochemical and in situ parameters, as well as d18O in ground water samples collected in the tunnel, show only small temporal variations. The precipitation record of d18O shows seasonal variations of ~14‰ and a decrease of 0.23‰ ± 0.03‰ per 100 m elevation gain. d2H and d18O in precipitation are well correlated and plot close to the meteoric water line, as well as d2H and d18O in ground water samples, reflecting the meteoric origin of the latter. The depletion of 18O in ground water compared to 18O content in precipitation during the ground water recharge period indicates significant contributions from accumulated depleted winter precipitation to ground water recharge. The hydrochemical composition of the encountered ground water, Na-Ca-HCO3-SO4(-F), reflects an evolution of the ground water along the flowpath through the granite body. Observed tritium concentrations in ground water range from 2.6 to 16.6 TU, with the lowest values associated with a local negative temperature anomaly and anomalous depleted 18O in ground water. This demonstrates the effect of local ground water recharge from meltwater of submodern glacial ice. Such localized recharge from glaciated areas occurs along preferential flowpaths within the granite body that are mainly controlled by observed hydraulic active shear fractures and cataclastic faults.