Biogeographical conditions, the transition to agriculture and long-run growth

We use new data on the timing of the transition to agriculture, developed by Putterman and Trainor (2006), to test the theory of Diamond (1997) and Olsson and Hibbs (2005) that an earlier transition is reflected in higher incomes today. Our results confirm the theory, even after controlling for institutional quality and other geographical factors. The date of transition is correlated with prehistoric biogeography (the availability of wild grasses and large domesticable animal species). The factors conducive to high per capita incomes today are good institutions, an early transition to agriculture, access to the sea and a low incidence of fatal malaria. Geographical influences have been at work in all of these proximate determinants of per capita income.

Geographical Influences on Long-Run Development

We show that geographical factors influence long-run per capita income directly, as well as indirectly, through the quality of institutions. The direct influence of geography on per capita incomes is robust to the inclusion of a sub-Saharan Africa dummy and other tests. We obtain our results by replacing the usual instrument (settlers’ mortality (SM)) by stronger instruments for institutional quality (latitude, the share of the country in the temperate climatic zone). We also provide evidence that SM suffers from endogeneity with respect to institutional quality for early colonies, because of its dependence on nineteenth-century mortality data.

Calculated and observed long term performance of Leneghans embankment

This paper presents the finite element (FE) analysis of the consolidation of the foundation of an embankment constructed over soft clay deposit which shows significant time dependent behaviour and was improved with prefabricated vertical drains. To assess the capability of a simple elastic viscoplastic (EVP) model to predict the long term performance of a geotechnical structure constructed on soft soils, a well documented (Leneghans) embankment was analyzed to predict its long term behaviour characteristics. Two fully coupled two dimensional (2D) plane strain FE analyses have been carried out. In one of these, the foundation of the embankment was modelled with a relatively simpler time dependent EVP model and in the other one, for comparison purposes, the foundation soil was modelled with elasto-plastic Modified Cam-clay (MCC) model. Details of the analyses and the results are discussed in comparison with the field performance. Predictions from the creep (EVP) model were found to be better than those from Elasto-plastic (MCC) analysis. However, the creep analysis requires an additional parameter and additional computational time and resources. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Effect of geosynthetic reinforcement creep on the long term performance of an embankment

Geo-synthetic reinforcements are often used to enhance the stability of geotechnical structures such as embankments. These geosynthetic polymers often show significant creep deformational behaviour. In the short-term performance of a geotechnical structure, it may not play a significant role. However, while dealing with the long term behaviour, it is necessary to investigate its effect. In this paper two plane strain fully coupled finite element analysis have been conducted; one with and the other without taking into account of the creep behaviour of geosynthetics. A well documented field case of Leneghans embankment (Geogrid improved wide embankment constructed near Sydney, Australia in 1990s) have been used for this purpose. It is evident from the analyses that though the geosynthetic reinforcements may play a vital role in the performance/stability of an embankment in the early days (during and after construction), its contribution may become insignificant with time and the creep of geo-synthetic may not play a significant role in the long term stability. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.

This Time is Different: Causes and Consequences of British Banking Instability over the Long Run

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How severe were the episodes of banking instability
experienced by the UK over the past two centuries? (2) What have been the macroeconomic
indicators of UK banking instability? and (3) What have been the consequences of UK banking
instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830 to 2010
to assess the stability of the UK banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more
severe since the 1970s. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth, and equity
prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long run.
Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields for the period 1860 to 2010, we
find that there is a significant long-run relationship between banking instability and the creditrisk
premium faced by businesses.

Performance evaluation of a zerovalent iron reactive barrier: Mineralogical characteristics

There is a limited amount of information about the effects of mineral precipitates and corrosion on the lifespan and long-term performance of in situ Fe° reactive barriers. The objectives of this paper are (1) to investigate mineral precipitates through an in situ permeable Fe° reactive barrier and (2) to examine the cementation and corrosion of Fe° filings in order to estimate the lifespan of this barrier. This field scale barrier (225' long x 2' wide x 31' deep) has been installed in order to remove uranium from contaminated groundwater at the Y-12 plant site, Oak Ridge, TN. According to XRD and SEM-EDX analysis of core samples recovered from the Fe° portion of the barrier, iron oxyhydroxides were found throughout, while aragonite, siderite, and FeS occurred predominantly in the shallow portion. Additionally, aragonite and FeS were present in up-gradient deeper zone where groundwater first enters the Fe° section of the barrier. After 15 months in the barrier, most of the Fe° filings in the core samples were loose, and a little corrosion of Fe° filings was observed in most of the barrier. However, larger amounts of corrosion (~10-150 µm thick corrosion rinds) occurred on cemented iron particles where groundwater first enters the barrier. Bicarbonate/ carbonate concentrations were high in this section of the barrier. Byproducts of this corrosion, iron oxyhydroxides, were the primary binding material in the cementation. Also, aragonite acted as a binding material to a lesser extent, while amorphous FeS occurred as coatings and infilings. Thin corrosion rinds (2-50 µm thick) were also found on the uncemented individual Fe° filings in the same area of the cementation. If corrosion continues, the estimated lifespan of Fe° filings in the more corroded sections is 5 to 10 years, while the Fe° filings in the rest of the barrier perhaps would last longer than 15 years. The mineral precipitates on the Fe° filing surfaces may hinder this corrosion but they may also decrease reactive surfaces. This research shows that precipitation will vary across a single reactive barrier and that greater corrosion and subsequent cementation of the filings may occur where groundwater first enters the Fe° section of the barrier.