2 resultados para Load estimation

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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The validity of load estimates from intermittent, instantaneous grab sampling is dependent on adequate spatial coverage by monitoring networks and a sampling frequency that re?ects the variability in the system under study. Catchments with a ?ashy hydrology due to surface runoff pose a particular challenge as intense short duration rainfall events may account for a signi?cant portion of the total diffuse transfer of pollution from soil to water in any hydrological year. This can also be exacerbated by the presence of strong background pollution signals from point sources during low flows. In this paper, a range of sampling methodologies and load estimation techniques are applied to phosphorus data from such a surface water dominated river system, instrumented at three sub-catchments (ranging from 3 to 5 km2 in area) with near-continuous monitoring stations. Systematic and Monte Carlo approaches were applied to simulate grab sampling using multiple strategies and to calculate an estimated load, Le based on established load estimation methods. Comparison with the actual load, Lt, revealed signi?cant average underestimation, of up to 60%, and high variability for all feasible sampling approaches. Further analysis of the time series provides an insight into these observations; revealing peak frequencies and power-law scaling in the distributions of P concentration, discharge and load associated with surface runoff and background transfers. Results indicate that only near-continuous monitoring that re?ects the rapid temporal changes in these river systems is adequate for comparative monitoring and evaluation purposes. While the implications of this analysis may be more tenable to small scale ?ashy systems, this represents an appropriate scale in terms of evaluating catchment mitigation strategies such as agri-environmental policies for managing diffuse P transfers in complex landscapes.

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Consumption of milk and dairy products is considered one of the main routes of human exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Quantitative data on MAP load in raw cows’ milk are essential starting point for exposure assessment. Our study provides this information on a regional scale, estimating the load of MAP in bulk tank milk (BTM) produced in Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). The survey was carried out on 2934 BTM samples (88.6% of the farms herein present) using two different target sequences for qPCR (f57 and IS900). Data about the performances of both qPCRs are also reported, highlighting the superior sensitivity of IS900-qPCR. Seven hundred and eighty-nine samples tested MAP-positive (apparent prevalence 26.9%) by IS900 qPCR. However, only 90 of these samples were quantifiable by qPCR. The quantifiable samples contained a median load of 32.4 MAP cells mL−1 (and maximum load of 1424 MAP cells mL−1). This study has shown that a small proportion (3.1%) of BTM samples from Emilia-Romagna region contained MAP in excess of the limit of detection (1.5 × 101 MAP cells mL−1), indicating low potential exposure for consumers if the milk subsequently undergoes pasteurization or if it is destined to typical hard cheese production.