Explaining young mortality

Stochastic modeling of mortality rates focuses on fitting linear models to logarithmically adjusted mortality data from the middle or late ages. Whilst this modeling enables insurers to project mortality rates and hence price mortality products it does not provide good fit for younger aged mortality. Mortality rates below the early 20's are important to model as they give an insight into estimates of the cohort effect for more recent years of birth. It is also important given the cumulative nature of life expectancy to be able to forecast mortality improvements at all ages. When we attempt to fit existing models to a wider age range, 5-89, rather than 20-89 or 50-89, their weaknesses are revealed as the results are not satisfactory. The linear innovations in existing models are not flexible enough to capture the non-linear profile of mortality rates that we see at the lower ages. In this paper we modify an existing 4 factor model of mortality to enable better fitting to a wider age range, and using data from seven developed countries our empirical results show that the proposed model has a better fit to the actual data, is robust, and has good forecasting ability.

Single feed low profile omnidirectional antenna with slant 45 degrees linear polarization

It is shown that a side-fed bifilar helix antenna with a single feed, can generate a slant 451 linearly polarized onmidirectional toroidal pattern. The antenna has a low profile and does not require a ground plane. The bifilar helix antenna provides slant 45 degrees polarization over a solid angle of almost 4 pi steradians as compared to a crossed dipole which generates a tilted 45 degrees linearly, polarized pattern only over a solid angle of 1.14 pi steradians. The computed results are validated by experimental data.

Modulated electrostatic modes in pair plasmas: Modulational stability profile and envelope excitations

A pair plasma consisting of two types of ions, possessing equal masses and opposite charges, is considered. The nonlinear propagation of modulated electrostatic wave packets is studied by employing a two-fluid plasma model. Considering propagation parallel to the external magnetic field, two distinct electrostatic modes are obtained, namely a quasiacoustic lower moddfe and a Langmuir-like, as optic-type upper one, in agreement with experimental observations and theoretical predictions. Considering small yet weakly nonlinear deviations from equilibrium, and adopting a multiple-scale technique, the basic set of model equations is reduced to a nonlinear Schrodinger equation for the slowly varying electric field perturbation amplitude. The analysis reveals that the lower (acoustic) mode is stable and may propagate in the form of a dark-type envelope soliton (a void) modulating a carrier wave packet, while the upper linear mode is intrinsically unstable, and may favor the formation of bright-type envelope soliton (pulse) modulated wave packets. These results are relevant to recent observations of electrostatic waves in pair-ion (fullerene) plasmas, and also with respect to electron-positron plasma emission in pulsar magnetospheres. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Anisotropic Impedance Surfaces for Linear to Circular Polarization Conversion

Anisotropic impedance surfaces are employed as low-profile and broadband reflectors that convert orthogonal linear to right- and left-handed circular polarization respectively. By virtue of anisotropy, it is possible to independently control the reflection characteristics of two orthogonal linearly polarized incident plane waves and therefore achieve linear to circular polarization conversion. Equivalent circuits for anisotropic impedance surfaces with arbitrarily shaped elements are employed to demonstrate the operating principle and a design procedure is proposed. The proposed design procedure is demonstrated by means of an example involving a dipole array. A prototype is designed and its performance characteristics are evaluated. The 3-dB relative axial ratio bandwidth exceeds 60%, while low loss and angular stability are also reported. Numerical and experimental results on a fabricated prototype are presented to validate the synthesis and the performance. © 2006 IEEE.

Search for the Return of Activity in Active Asteroid 176P/LINEAR

We present the results of a search for the reactivation of active asteroid 176P/LINEAR during its 2011 perihelion passage using deep optical observations obtained before, during, and after that perihelion passage. Deep composite images of 176P constructed from data obtained between 2011 June and 2011 December show no visible signs of activity, while photometric measurements of the object during this period also show no significant brightness enhancements similar to that observed for 176P between 2005 November and 2005 December when it was previously observed to be active. An azimuthal search for dust emission likewise reveals no evidence for directed emission (i.e., a tail, as was previously observed for 176P), while a one-dimensional surface brightness profile analysis shows no indication of a spherically symmetric coma at any time in 2011. We conclude that 176P did not in fact exhibit activity in 2011, at least not on the level on which it exhibited activity in 2005, and suggest that this could be due to the devolatization or mantling of the active site responsible for its activity in 2005.

Dynamic modelling of die melt temperature profile in polymer extrusion: Effects of process settings, screw geometry and material

Extrusion is one of the major methods for processing polymeric materials and the thermal homogeneity of the process output is a major concern for manufacture of high quality extruded products. Therefore, accurate process thermal monitoring and control are important for product quality control. However, most industrial extruders use single point thermocouples for the temperature monitoring/control although their measurements are highly affected by the barrel metal wall temperature. Currently, no industrially established thermal profile measurement technique is available. Furthermore, it has been shown that the melt temperature changes considerably with the die radial position and hence point/bulk measurements are not sufficient for monitoring and control of the temperature across the melt flow. The majority of process thermal control methods are based on linear models which are not capable of dealing with process nonlinearities. In this work, the die melt temperature profile of a single screw extruder was monitored by a thermocouple mesh technique. The data obtained was used to develop a novel approach of modelling the extruder die melt temperature profile under dynamic conditions (i.e. for predicting the die melt temperature profile in real-time). These newly proposed models were in good agreement with the measured unseen data. They were then used to explore the effects of process settings, material and screw geometry on the die melt temperature profile. The results showed that the process thermal homogeneity was affected in a complex manner by changing the process settings, screw geometry and material.