Evolving southwest African response to abrupt deglacial North Atlantic climate change events

Climate change during the last deglaciation was strongly influenced by the „bipolar seesaw‟, producing antiphase climate responses between the North and South Atlantic. However, mounting evidence demands refinements of this model, with the occurrence of abrupt events in southern low to mid latitudes occurring in-phase with North Atlantic climate. Improved constraints on the north-south phasing and spatial extent of these events are therefore critical to
understanding the mechanisms that propagate abrupt events within the climate system. We present a 19,400 year multi-proxy record of climate change obtained from a rock hyrax midden in southernmost Africa. Arid anomalies in phase with the Younger Dryas and 8.2 ka events are apparent, indicating a clear shift in the influence of the bipolar seesaw, which diminished as the Earth warmed, and was succeeded after ~14.6 ka by the emergence of a dominant interhemispheric atmospheric teleconnection.

A realistic evaluation of Early Warning Systems and acute care training in Northern Ireland: findings and recommendations

Statement of purpose The purpose of this concurrent session is to present the main findings and recommendations from a five year study evaluating the implementation of Early Warning Systems (EWS) and the Acute Life-threatening Events: Recognition and Treatment (ALERT) course in Northern Ireland. The presentation will provide delegates with an understanding of those factors that enable and constrain successful implementation of EWS and ALERT in practice in order to provide an impetus for change. Methods The research design was a multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland. It followed the principles of realist evaluation research which allowed empirical data to be gathered to test and refine RRS programme theory [1]. The stages included identifying the programme theories underpinning EWS and ALERT, generating hypotheses, gathering empirical evidence and refining the programme theories. This approach used a variety of mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation and documentary analysis of EWS compliance data and ALERT training records. A within and across case comparison facilitated the development of mid-range theories from the research evidence. Results The official RRS theories developed from the realist synthesis were critically evaluated and compared with the study findings to develop a mid-range theory to explain what works, for whom in what circumstances. The findings of what works suggests that clinical experience, established working relationships, flexible implementation of protocols, ongoing experiential learning, empowerment and pre-emptive management are key to the success of EWS and ALERT implementation. Each concept is presented as ‘context, mechanism and outcome configurations’ to provide an understanding of how the context impacts on individual reasoning or behaviour to produce certain outcomes. Conclusion These findings highlight the combination of factors that can improve the implementation and sustainability of EWS and ALERT and in light of this evidence several recommendations are made to provide policymakers with guidance and direction for future policy development. References: 1. Pawson R and Tilley N. (1997) Realistic Evaluation. Sage Publications; London Type of submission: Concurrent session Source of funding: Sandra Ryan Fellowship funded by the School of Nursing & Midwifery, Queen’s University of Belfast

The Beta Agonist Lung Injury Trial Prevention:A Randomized Controlled Trial

Rationale: Experimental studies suggest that pretreatment with b-agonists might prevent acute lung injury (ALI).

Objectives: To determine if in adult patients undergoing elective esophagectomy, perioperative treatment with inhaled b-agonists effects the development of early ALI.

Methods:We conducted a randomized placebo-controlled trial in 12 UK centers (2008-2011). Adult patients undergoing elective esophagectomy were allocated to prerandomized, sequentially numbered treatment packs containing inhaled salmeterol (100 mg twice daily) or a matching placebo. Patients, clinicians, and researchers were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was development of ALI within 72 hours of surgery. Secondary outcomes were ALI within 28 days, organ failure, adverse events, survival, and health-related quality of life. An exploratory substudy measured biomarkers of alveolar-capillary inflammation and injury.

Measurements and Main Results: A total of 179 patients were randomized to salmeterol and 183 to placebo. Baseline characteristics were similar. Treatment with salmeterol did not prevent early lung injury (32 [19.2%] of 168 vs. 27 [16.0%] of 170; odds ratio [OR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-2.22). There was no difference in organ failure, survival, or health-related quality of life.Adverse events were less frequent in the salmeterol group (55 vs. 70; OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.39-0.99), predominantly because of a lower number of pneumonia (7 vs. 17; OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.16-0.96). Salmeterol reduced some biomarkers of alveolar inflammation and epithelial injury.

Conclusion: Perioperative treatment with inhaled salmeterol was well tolerated but did not prevent ALI.

Clinical trial registered with International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Register (ISRCTN47481946) and European Union database of randomized Controlled Trials (EudraCT 2007-004096-19).Copyright © 2014 by the American Thoracic Society.

Realist synthesis: Critical care rapid response systems.

Background Rapid Response Systems (RRS) consist of four interrelated and interdependent components; an event detection and trigger mechanism, a response strategy, a governance structure and process improvement system. These multiple components of the RRS pose problems in evaluation as the intervention is complex and cannot be evaluated using a traditional systematic review. Complex interventions in healthcare aimed at changing service delivery and related behaviour of health professionals require a different approach to summarising the evidence. Realist synthesis is such an approach to reviewing research evidence on complex interventions to provide an explanatory analysis of how and why an intervention works or doesn’t work in practice. The core principle is to make explicit the underlying assumptions about how an intervention is suppose to work (ie programme theory) and then use this theory to guide evaluation. Methods A realist synthesis process was used to explain those factors that enable or constrain the success of RRS programmes. Results The findings from the review include the articulation of the RRS programme theories, evaluation of whether these theories are supported or refuted by the research evidence and an evaluation of evidence to explain the underlying reasons why RRS works or doesn’t work in practice. Rival conjectured RRS programme theories were identified to explain the constraining factors regarding implementation of RRS in practice. These programme theories are presented using a logic model to highlight all the components which impact or influence the delivery of RRS programmes in the practice setting. The evidence from the realist synthesis provided the foundation for the development of hypothesis to test and refine the theories in the subsequent stages of the Realist Evaluation PhD study [1]. This information will be useful in providing evidence and direction for strategic and service planning of acute care to improve patient safety in hospital. References: McGaughey J, Blackwood B, O’Halloran P, Trinder T. J. & Porter S. (2010) Realistic Evaluation of Early Warning Systems and the Acute Life-threatening Events – Recognition and Treatment training course for early recognition and management of deteriorating ward-based patients: research protocol. Journal of Advanced Nursing 66 (4), 923-932.

A realistic evaluation of track and trigger systems and acute care training for early recognition and treatment of deteriorating ward-based patients: research protocol.

Aim The aim of the study is to evaluate factors that enable or constrain the implementation and service delivery of early warnings systems or acute care training in practice. Background To date there is limited evidence to support the effectiveness of acute care initiatives (early warning systems, acute care training, outreach) in reducing the number of adverse events (cardiac arrest, death, unanticipated Intensive Care admission) through increased recognition and management of deteriorating ward based patients in hospital [1-3]. The reasons posited are that previous research primarily focused on measuring patient outcomes following the implementation of an intervention or programme without considering the social factors (the organisation, the people, external influences) which may have affected the process of implementation and hence measured end-points. Further research which considers the social processes is required in order to understand why a programme works, or does not work, in particular circumstances [4]. Method The design is a multiple case study approach of four general wards in two acute hospitals where Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Acute Life-threatening Events Recognition and Treatment (ALERT) course have been implemented. Various methods are being used to collect data about individual capacities, interpersonal relationships and institutional balance and infrastructures in order to understand the intended and unintended process outcomes of implementing EWS and ALERT in practice. This information will be gathered from individual and focus group interviews with key participants (ALERT facilitators, nursing and medical ALERT instructors, ward managers, doctors, ward nurses and health care assistants from each hospital); non-participant observation of ward organisation and structure; audit of patients' EWS charts and audit of the medical notes of patients who deteriorated during the study period to ascertain whether ALERT principles were followed. Discussion & progress to date This study commenced in January 2007. Ethical approval has been granted and data collection is ongoing with interviews being conducted with key stakeholders. The findings from this study will provide evidence for policy-makers to make informed decisions regarding the direction for strategic and service planning of acute care services to improve the level of care provided to acutely ill patients in hospital. References 1. Esmonde L, McDonnell A, Ball C, Waskett C, Morgan R, Rashidain A et al. Investigating the effectiveness of Critical Care Outreach Services: A systematic review. Intensive Care Medicine 2006; 32: 1713-1721 2. McGaughey J, Alderdice F, Fowler R, Kapila A, Mayhew A, Moutray M. Outreach and Early Warning Systems for the prevention of Intensive Care admission and death of critically ill patients on general hospital wards. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2007, Issue 3. www.thecochranelibrary.com 3. Winters BD, Pham JC, Hunt EA, Guallar E, Berenholtz S, Pronovost PJ (2007) Rapid Response Systems: A systematic review. Critical Care Medicine 2007; 35 (5): 1238-43 4. Pawson R and Tilley N. Realistic Evaluation. London; Sage: 1997

Perceptions of stressful life events in Northern Irish school children: a longitudinal study.

Adults’ perceptions of stressful life events have been acknowledged as important moderators of the stress adjustment relationship. Until recently, however, there has been a lack of research on children's perceptions of negative life events. This study assesses children's own perceptions of the stressfulness of negative familial, academic and social events as well as events related to the political conflict in Northern Ireland. Method: Developmental changes in children's perceptions of events are traced over time. One hundred and sixty 8-year-old children completed a self-report measure of the perceived stressfulness of a range of negative life events. The sample was drawn from schools in the Greater Belfast area to include children of both genders, primary religious affiliations in Northern Ireland (i.e., Protestant and Roman Catholic) and of varying socio-economic status. Three years later, 113 of these children, then aged 11, were traced through the school system and completed the same measure. Results: Children's perceptions of stressful events are related to a host of social factors. Girls viewed many negative events as more stressful than their male counterparts. Roman Catholic and Protestant children differed in their perceptions of conflict-related events. Perceptions of various types of negative experiences were differentially related to socio-economic status and age. Conclusion: Personal, social and situational factors differentially determine children's perceptions of negative life experiences.

Comparison of weight in middle age, weight at 18 years, and weight change between, in predicting subsequent 14 year mortality and coronary events: Caerphilly Prospective Study

Objective-The prevalence of obesity is increasing in many European countries and in the United States. This report examines the mortality and morbidity associated with being overweight and obese in the Caerphilly Prospective Study and the relative effects of weight in middle age and self reported weight at 18 years.

Using mixed-methods to examine teachers’ attitudes to educational change:The case of the Skills for Life strategy for improving adult literacy and numeracy skills in England.

This paper reports on a longitudinal study that examines how a national reform introduced in England in the field of adult literacy, language, and numeracy is affecting teachers. The paper focuses on the use of a mixed methodology to explore teachers' attitudes to the reform and how these change over time. The quantitative strand includes the construction and use of a Likert-type instrument for measuring the attitudes of a panel of 1,500 teachers. The qualitative strand builds on the quantitative results and includes focus groups and in-depth interviews with a subsample of teachers in the panel. As the study is still in its initial phase, the purpose is not to present findings, but to discuss how quantitative and qualitative evidence can be combined in evaluation research.

Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China

Volatiles erupted from large-scale explosive volcanic activities have a significant impact on climate and environmental changes. As an important ecological factor, the occurrence of fire is affected by vegetation cover, and fire can feed back into both vegetation and climatic change. The causes of fire events are diverse; and can include volcanic eruptions. The amount of charcoal in sediment sequences is related to the frequency and intensity of fire, and hence under good preservation conditions fire history can be reconstructed from fossil charcoal abundance. Until now, little research on the role of fire has been carried out in northeastern China. In this study, through research on charcoal and tephra shards from Gushantun and Hanlongwan, Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China, was investigated. Where tephra shards are present in Gushantun it is associated with low level of both conifers and broadleaved trees, and is also associated with a pronounced charcoal peak. This suggests forest cover was greatly reduced from a fire caused by an eruption of the Tianchi volcano. We also detected one tephra layer in Hanlongwan, which also has the almost same depth with low level forest pollen values and one charcoal peak. This was caused probably by an eruption of the Jinlongdingzi volcano.