The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) inChina and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’sEPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply andcapital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronicrespiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost ofthe five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD).For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that thecosts are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory,and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys foraddressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial