Care proceedings: Exploring the relationship between case duration and achieving permanency for the child

The 1989 Children Act in England and Wales and the derivative 1995 Children (NI) Order in Northern Ireland provide the legislative framework within which issues pertaining to the care and supervision of children that come before the Courts are examined. Both pieces of legislation were intended to address a number of problems with the way that such issues were dealt with by the Court, particularly the tendency for proceedings to become protracted and for children to ‘drift’ in care as a consequence. The imposition of the ‘No Delay’ principle in both jurisdictions was designed specifically to address these concerns. However, since the introduction of both the 1989 Children Act (implemented in October 1991) and the 1995 Children (NI) Order (implemented in November 1996), there has been a steady increase in the average duration of proceedings and concerns remain about the impact that this may be having upon the children involved. This paper presents the findings of a research study (McSherry et al., 2004) that explored the complex relationship between the duration of care proceedings and costs to children in terms of the likelihood of achieving permanency.

Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

In this article, we extend the earlier work of Freeland and McCabe [Journal of time Series Analysis (2004) Vol. 25, pp. 701–722] and develop a general framework for maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes. Our exposition includes the case where the innovation sequence has a Poisson distribution and the thinning is binomial. A recursive representation of the transition probability of the model is proposed. Based on this transition probability, we derive expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix, which form the basis for ML estimation and inference. Similar to the results in Freeland and McCabe (2004), we show that the score function and the Fisher information matrix can be neatly represented as conditional expectations. Using the INAR(2) speci?cation with binomial thinning and Poisson innovations, we examine both the asymptotic e?ciency and ?nite sample properties of the ML estimator in relation to the widely used conditional least
squares (CLS) and Yule–Walker (YW) estimators. We conclude that, if the Poisson assumption can be justi?ed, there are substantial gains to be had from using ML especially when the thinning parameters are large.

Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

Corrigendum Vol. 30, Issue 2, 259, Article first published online: 15 MAR 2009 to correct the order of authors names: Bu R., K. Hadri, and B. McCabe.

Predicting the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation: validation of BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, Myriad and the Manchester scoring system using data from UK genetics clinics

Objectives: Genetic testing for the breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 has important implications for the clinical management of people found to carry a mutation. However, genetic testing is expensive and may be associated with adverse psychosocial effects. To provide a cost-efficient and clinically appropriate genetic counselling service, genetic testing should be targeted at those individuals most likely to carry pathogenic mutations. Several algorithms that predict the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or a BRCA2 mutation are currently used in clinical practice to identify such individuals.

Predator diversity enhances secondary production and decreases the likelihood of trophic cascades

We manipulated the diversity of top predators in a three trophic level marine food web. The food web included four top benthic marine fish predators (black goby, rock goby, sea scorpion and shore rockling), an intermediate trophic level of small fish, and a lower trophic level of benthic invertebrates. We kept predator density constant and monitored the response of the lower trophic levels. As top predator diversity increased, secondary production increased. We also observed that in the presence of the manipulated fish predators, the density of small gobiid fish (intermediate consumers) was suppressed, releasing certain groups of benthic invertebrates (caprellid amphipods, copepods, nematodes and spirorbid worms) from heavy intermediate predation pressure. We attribute the mechanism responsible for this trophic cascade to a trait-mediated indirect interaction, with the small gobiid fish changing their use of space in response to altered predator diversity. In the absence of top fish predators, a full-blown trophic cascade occurs. Therefore the diversity of predators reduces the likelihood of trophic cascades occurring and hence provides insurance against the loss of an important ecosystem function (i.e. secondary production).

A specificity-enhanced time-resolved fluoroimmunoassay for zeranol employing the dry reagent all-in-one-well principle

A simple dry chemistry time-resolved fluorescence immunoassay (TR-FIA) method was developed for the measurement of zeranol in bovine urine samples. The samples were purified by immunoaffinity chromatography and a specificity-enhanced zeranol antibody was employed in the immunoassay. This resulted in a highly selective method, which had only negligible reactivity with Fusarium spp, toxins. The all-in-one-well dry chemistry concept made the assay very simple to use because all the assay-specific reagents were already present in the reaction wells in dry form. Only the addition of diluted sample extract was required to perform the competitive one-step TR-FIA and the results were available in less than 1 h. The analytical limit of detection (mean + 3s) for the immunoassay was 0.16 ng ml(-1) (n=12) and the functional limit of detection for the whole method, estimated by the analysis of zeranol-free samples, was 1.3 ng ml(-1) (n=20). The recovery of zeranol at the level of 2 ng ml(-1) was 99% (n=18) and the within-assay variation ranged between 4.5 and 9.0%.