An extended framework for evidential reasoning systems

Based on the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence and G. Yen's (1989), extension of the theory, the authors propose approaches to representing heuristic knowledge by evidential mapping and pooling the mass distribution in a complex frame by partitioning that frame using Shafter's partition technique. The authors have generalized Yen's model from Bayesian probability theory to the D-S theory of evidence. Based on such a generalized model, an extended framework for evidential reasoning systems is briefly specified in which a semi-graph method is used to describe the heuristic knowledge. The advantage of such a method is that it can avoid the complexity of graphs without losing the explicitness of graphs. The extended framework can be widely used to build expert systems

Computerised Diagnostic Decision Support System for the Classification of Pre-Invasive Cervical Squamous Lesions.

Previous studies have revealed considerable interobserver and intraobserver variation in the histological classification of preinvasive cervical squamous lesions. The aim of the present study was to develop a decision support system (DSS) for the histological interpretation of these lesions. Knowledge and uncertainty were represented in the form of a Bayesian belief network that permitted the storage of diagnostic knowledge and, for a given case, the collection of evidence in a cumulative manner that provided a final probability for the possible diagnostic outcomes. The network comprised 8 diagnostic histological features (evidence nodes) that were each independently linked to the diagnosis (decision node) by a conditional probability matrix. Diagnostic outcomes comprised normal; koilocytosis; and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1, CIN II, and CIN M. For each evidence feature, a set of images was recorded that represented the full spectrum of change for that feature. The system was designed to be interactive in that the histopathologist was prompted to enter evidence into the network via a specifically designed graphical user interface (i-Path Diagnostics, Belfast, Northern Ireland). Membership functions were used to derive the relative likelihoods for the alternative feature outcomes, the likelihood vector was entered into the network, and the updated diagnostic belief was computed for the diagnostic outcomes and displayed. A cumulative probability graph was generated throughout the diagnostic process and presented on screen. The network was tested on 50 cervical colposcopic biopsy specimens, comprising 10 cases each of normal, koilocytosis, CIN 1, CIN H, and CIN III. These had been preselected by a consultant gynecological pathologist. Using conventional morphological assessment, the cases were classified on 2 separate occasions by 2 consultant and 2 junior pathologists. The cases were also then classified using the DSS on 2 occasions by the 4 pathologists and by 2 medical students with no experience in cervical histology. Interobserver and intraobserver agreement using morphology and using the DSS was calculated with K statistics. Intraobserver reproducibility using conventional unaided diagnosis was reasonably good (kappa range, 0.688 to 0.861), but interobserver agreement was poor (kappa range, 0.347 to 0.747). Using the DSS improved overall reproducibility between individuals. Using the DSS, however, did not enhance the diagnostic performance of junior pathologists when comparing their DSS-based diagnosis against an experienced consultant. However, the generation of a cumulative probability graph also allowed a comparison of individual performance, how individual features were assessed in the same case, and how this contributed to diagnostic disagreement between individuals. Diagnostic features such as nuclear pleomorphism were shown to be particularly problematic and poorly reproducible. DSSs such as this therefore not only have a role to play in enhancing decision making but also in the study of diagnostic protocol, education, self-assessment, and quality control. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Rise and Fall of the Legal Expert System

Those very few of us who were critical of the rise of legal expert systems in the early 1980s probably wonder, in idle moments, whether there is a possibility of rejuvenation of an approach which was once multi¬various and is now obscure and esoteric. Is it possible that after rising and falling, that legal expert system research programme could rise again? What were the conditions which gave impetus to the field and could they be repeated? In this article I want to return, with a personal viewpoint, on the rise of expert systems and why – despite their failure – the appeal of commoditising legal expertise continues to allure the unwary.

PROSTATIC INTRAEPITHELIAL NEOPLASIA (PIN) - PERFORMANCE OF BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK FOR DIAGNOSIS AND GRADING

Prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) diagnosis and grading are affected by uncertainties which arise from the fact that almost all knowledge of PIN histopathology is expressed in concepts, descriptive linguistic terms, and words. A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was therefore used to reduce the problem of uncertainty in diagnostic clue assessment, while still considering the dependences between elements in the reasoning sequence. A shallow network was used with an open-tree topology, with eight first-level descendant nodes for the diagnostic clues (evidence nodes), each independently linked by a conditional probability matrix to a root node containing the diagnostic alternatives (decision node). One of the evidence nodes was based on the tissue architecture and the others were based on cell features. The system was designed to be interactive, in that the histopathologist entered evidence into the network in the form of likelihood ratios for outcomes at each evidence node. The efficiency of the network was tested on a series of 110 prostate specimens, subdivided as follows: 22 cases of non-neoplastic prostate or benign prostatic tissue (NP), 22 PINs of low grade (PINlow), 22 PINs of high grade (PINhigh), 22 prostatic adenocarcinomas with cribriform pattern (PACcri), and 22 prostatic adenocarcinomas with large acinar pattern (PAClgac). The results obtained in the benign and malignant categories showed that the belief for the diagnostic alternatives is very high, the values being in general more than 0.8 and often close to 1.0. When considering the PIN lesions, the network classified and graded most of the cases with high certainty. However, there were some cases which showed values less than 0.8 (13 cases out of 44), thus indicating that there are situations in which the feature changes are intermediate between contiguous categories or grades. Discrepancy between morphological grading and the BBN results was observed in four out of 44 PIN cases: one PINlow was classified as PINhigh and three PINhigh were classified as PINlow. In conclusion, the network can grade PlN lesions and differentiate them from other prostate lesions with certainty. In particular, it offers a descriptive classifier which is readily implemented and which allows the use of linguistic, fuzzy variables.

Man-in-the-Middle Attack Test-bed Investigating Cyber-security Vulnerabilities in Smart Grid SCADA Systems

The increased complexity and interconnectivity of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems in the Smart Grid has exposed them to a wide range of cyber-security issues, and there are a multitude of potential access points for cyber attackers. This paper presents a SCADA-specific cyber-security test-bed which contains SCADA software and communication infrastructure. This test-bed is used to investigate an Address Resolution Protocol (ARP) spoofing based man-in-the-middle attack. Finally, the paper proposes a future work plan which focuses on applying intrusion detection and prevention technology to address cyber-security issues in SCADA systems.

A computational intelligent approach to multi-factor analysis of violent crime information systems

Various scientific studies have explored the causes of violent behaviour from different perspectives, with psychological tests, in particular, applied to the analysis of crime factors. The relationship between bi-factors has also been extensively studied including the link between age and crime. In reality, many factors interact to contribute to criminal behaviour and as such there is a need to have a greater level of insight into its complex nature. In this article we analyse violent crime information systems containing data on psychological, environmental and genetic factors. Our approach combines elements of rough set theory with fuzzy logic and particle swarm optimisation to yield an algorithm and methodology that can effectively extract multi-knowledge from information systems. The experimental results show that our approach outperforms alternative genetic algorithm and dynamic reduct-based techniques for reduct identification and has the added advantage of identifying multiple reducts and hence multi-knowledge (rules). Identified rules are consistent with classical statistical analysis of violent crime data and also reveal new insights into the interaction between several factors. As such, the results are helpful in improving our understanding of the factors contributing to violent crime and in highlighting the existence of hidden and intangible relationships between crime factors.

Knowledge Transfer in Quadruple Helix Ecosystems: An Absorptive Capacity Perspective

Increased understanding of knowledge transfer (KT) from universities to the wider regional knowledge ecosystem offers opportunities for increased regional innovation and commercialisation. The aim of this article is to improve the understanding of the KT phenomena in an open innovation context where multiple diverse quadruple helix stakeholders are interacting. An absorptive capacity-based conceptual framework is proposed, using a priori constructs which portrays the multidimensional process of KT between universities and its constituent stakeholders in pursuit of open innovation and commercialisation. Given the lack of overarching theory in the field, an exploratory, inductive theory building methodology was adopted using semi-structured interviews, document analysis and longitudinal observation data over a three-year period. The findings identify five factors, namely human centric factors, organisational factors, knowledge characteristics, power relationships and network characteristics, which mediate both the ability of stakeholders to engage in KT and the effectiveness of knowledge acquisition, assimilation, transformation and exploitation. This research has implications for policy makers and practitioners by identifying the need to implement interventions to overcome the barriers to KT effectiveness between regional quadruple helix stakeholders within an open innovation ecosystem.

Multidimensional Intrusion Detection System for IEC 61850 based SCADA Networks

Emerging cybersecurity vulnerabilities in supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are becoming urgent engineering issues for modern substations. This paper proposes a novel intrusion detection system (IDS) tailored for cybersecurity of IEC 61850 based substations. The proposed IDS integrates physical knowledge, protocol specifications and logical behaviours to provide a comprehensive and effective solution that is able to mitigate various cyberattacks. The proposed approach comprises access control detection, protocol whitelisting, model-based detection, and multi-parameter based detection. This SCADA-specific IDS is implemented and validated using a comprehensive and realistic cyber-physical test-bed and data from a real 500kV smart substation.

Hierarchical Task Network Planning with Common-Sense Reasoning for Multiple-People Behaviour Analysis

Safety on public transport is a major concern for the relevant authorities. We
address this issue by proposing an automated surveillance platform which combines data from video, infrared and pressure sensors. Data homogenisation and integration is achieved by a distributed architecture based on communication middleware that resolves interconnection issues, thereby enabling data modelling. A common-sense knowledge base models and encodes knowledge about public-transport platforms and the actions and activities of passengers. Trajectory data from passengers is modelled as a time-series of human activities. Common-sense knowledge and rules are then applied to detect inconsistencies or errors in the data interpretation. Lastly, the rationality that characterises human behaviour is also captured here through a bottom-up Hierarchical Task Network planner that, along with common-sense, corrects misinterpretations to explain passenger behaviour. The system is validated using a simulated bus saloon scenario as a case-study. Eighteen video sequences were recorded with up to six passengers. Four metrics were used to evaluate performance. The system, with an accuracy greater than 90% for each of the four metrics, was found to outperform a rule-base system and a system containing planning alone.