Analysing orchestrations with risk profiles and angel-daemon games

In this paper game theory is used to analyse the effect of a number of service failures during the execution of a grid orchestration. A service failure may be catastrophic in that it causes an entire orchestration to fail. Alternatively, a grid manager may utilise alternative services in the case of failure, allowing an orchestration to recover, A risk profile provides a means of modelling situations in a way that is neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic. Risk profiles are analysed using angel and daemon games. A risk profile can be assigned a valuation through an analysis of the structure of its associated Nash equilibria. Some structural properties of valuation functions, that show their validity as a measure for risk, are given. Two main cases are considered, the assessment of Orc expressions and the arrangement of a meeting using reputations.

Reasoning about orchestrations of web services using partial correctness

A service is a remote computational facility which is made available for general use by means of a wide-area network. Several types of service arise in practice: stateless services, shared state services and services with states which are customised for individual users. A service-based orchestration is a multi-threaded computation which invokes remote services in order to deliver results back to a user (publication). In this paper a means of specifying services and reasoning about the correctness of orchestrations over stateless services is presented. As web services are potentially unreliable the termination of even finite orchestrations cannot be guaranteed. For this reason a partial-correctness powerdomain approach is proposed to capture the semantics of recursive orchestrations.

Web Services and Incerta Spiriti: A Game Theoretic Approach to Uncertainty

A web-service is a remote computational facility which is made available for general use by means of the internet. An orchestration is a multi-threaded computation which invokes remote services. In this paper game theory is used to analyse the behaviour of orchestration evaluations when underlying web-services are unreliable. Uncertainty profiles are proposed as a means of defining bounds on the number of service failures that can be expected during an orchestration evaluation. An uncertainty profile describes a strategic situation that can be analyzed using a zero-sum angel-daemon game with two competing players: an angel a whose objective is to minimize damage to an orchestration and a daemon d who acts in a destructive fashion. An uncertainty profile is assessed using the value of its angel daemon game. It is shown that uncertainty profiles form a partial order which is monotonic with respect to assessment.

Stressed Web Environments as Strategic Games: Risk Profiles and Weltanschauung

We consider the behaviour of a set of services in a stressed web environment where performance patterns may be difficult to predict. In stressed environments the performances of some providers may degrade while the performances of others, with elastic resources, may improve. The allocation of web-based providers to users (brokering) is modelled by a strategic non-cooperative angel-daemon game with risk profiles. A risk profile specifies a bound on the number of unreliable service providers within an environment without identifying the names of these providers. Risk profiles offer a means of analysing the behaviour of broker agents which allocate service providers to users. A Nash equilibrium is a fixed point of such a game in which no user can locally improve their choice of provider – thus, a Nash equilibrium is a viable solution to the provider/user allocation problem. Angel daemon games provide a means of reasoning about stressed environments and offer the possibility of designing brokers using risk profiles and Nash equilibria.

Proteomics on porcine haptoglobin and IgG/IgA show protein species distribution and glycosylation pattern to remain similar in PCV2-SD infection

Haptoglobin (Hp) and immunoglobulins are plasma glycoproteins involved in the immune reaction of the organism after infection and/or inflammation. Porcine circovirus type 2-systemic disease (PCV2-SD), formerly known as postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS), is a globally spread pig disease of great economic impact. PCV2-SD affects the immunological system of pigs causing immunosuppression. The aim of this work was to characterize the Hp protein species of healthy and PCV2-SD affected pigs, as well as the protein backbone and the glycan chain composition of porcine Hp. PCV2-SD affected pigs had an increased overall Hp level, but it did not affect the ratio between Hp species. Glycoproteomic analysis of the Hp β subunits confirmed that porcine Hp is N-glycosylated and, unexpectedly, O-glycosylated, a PTM that is not found on Hp from healthy humans. The glyco-profile of porcine IgG and IgA heavy chains was also characterized; decreased levels of both proteins were found in the investigated group of PCV2-SD affected pigs. Obtained results indicate that no significant changes in the N- and O-glycosylation patterns of these major porcine plasma glycoproteins were detectable between healthy and PCV2-SD affected animals.

Analysing Web-Orchestrations Under Stress Using Uncertainty Profiles

An orchestration is a multi-threaded computation that invokes a number of remote services. In practice, the responsiveness of a web-service fluctuates with demand; during surges in activity service responsiveness may be degraded, perhaps even to the point of failure. An uncertainty profile formalizes a user's perception of the effects of stress on an orchestration of web-services; it describes a strategic situation, modelled by a zero-sum angel–daemon game. Stressed web-service scenarios are analysed, using game theory, in a realistic way, lying between over-optimism (services are entirely reliable) and over-pessimism (all services are broken). The ‘resilience’ of an uncertainty profile can be assessed using the valuation of its associated zero-sum game. In order to demonstrate the validity of the approach, we consider two measures of resilience and a number of different stress models. It is shown how (i) uncertainty profiles can be ordered by risk (as measured by game valuations) and (ii) the structural properties of risk partial orders can be analysed.

Uncertainty in the Cloud: An Angel-Daemon Approach to Modelling Performance

Uncertainty profiles are used to study the effects of contention within cloud and service-based environments. An uncertainty profile provides a qualitative description of an environment whose quality of service (QoS) may fluctuate unpredictably. Uncertain environments are modelled by strategic games with two agents; a daemon is used to represent overload and high resource contention; an angel is used to represent an idealised resource allocation situation with no underlying contention. Assessments of uncertainty profiles are useful in two ways: firstly, they provide a broad understanding of how environmental stress can effect an application’s performance (and reliability); secondly, they allow the effects of introducing redundancy into a computation to be assessed

The Robustness of Periodic Orchestrations in Uncertain Evolving Environments

A framework for assessing the robustness of long-duration repetitive orchestrations in uncertain evolving environments is proposed. The model assumes that service-based evaluation environments are stable over short time-frames only; over longer periods service-based environments evolve as demand fluctuates and contention for shared resources varies. The behaviour of a short-duration orchestration E in a stable environment is assessed by an uncertainty profile U and a corresponding zero-sum angel-daemon game Γ(U) [2]. Here the angel-daemon approach is extended to assess evolving environments by means of a subfamily of stochastic games. These games are called strategy oblivious because their transition probabilities are strategy independent. It is shown that the value of a strategy oblivious stochastic game is well defined and that it can be computed by solving a linear system. Finally, the proposed stochastic framework is used to assess the evolution of the Gabrmn IT system.

The timing and spatiotemporal patterning of Neanderthal disappearance

ThetimingofNeanderthal disappearanceandtheextent to whichthey overlapped with the earliest incoming anatomically modern humans (AMHs)inEurasia arekey questions inpalaeoanthropology1,2 .Deter- mining the spatiotemporal relationship between the two populations is crucial if we are to understand the processes, timing and reasons leading to the disappearance of Neanderthals and the likelihood of cultural and genetic exchange. Serious technical challenges, however, havehinderedreliable datingof the period,as theradiocarbonmethod reaches its limit at 50,000 years ago3 .Herewe apply improved accel- erator mass spectrometry 14C techniques to construct robust chro- nologies from 40 key Mousterian and Neanderthal archaeological sites, ranging fromRussia toSpain.Bayesianagemodellingwas used togenerate probability distributionfunctions todetermine the latest appearancedate.Weshowthat theMousterianendedby41,030–39,260 calibratedyears BP(at95.4%probability) acrossEurope.Wealsodem- onstrate that succeeding ‘transitional’ archaeological industries, one ofwhich has beenlinked withNeanderthals (Cha ˆtelperronian)4 ,end at a similar time. Our data indicate that the disappearance of Nean- derthals occurred at different times in different regions.Comparing the data with results obtained fromthe earliest datedAMHsites in Europe, associated with the Uluzzian technocomplex5 , allows us to quantify the temporal overlap between the two human groups. The results revealasignificantoverlap of 2,600–5,400years (at 95.4%prob- ability).This hasimportant implications formodels seeking toexplain the cultural, technological and biological elements involved in the replacement of Neanderthals byAMHs.Amosaic of populations in Europe during the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition suggests that there was ample time for the transmission of cultural and sym- bolic behaviours, as well as possible genetic exchanges, between the two groups.

Decentralized Computation of Pareto Optimal Pure Nash Equilibria of Boolean Games with Privacy Concerns

In Boolean games, agents try to reach a goal formulated as a Boolean formula. These games are attractive because of their compact representations. However, few methods are available to compute the solutions and they are either limited or do not take privacy or communication concerns into account. In this paper we propose the use of an algorithm related to reinforcement learning to address this problem. Our method is decentralized in the sense that agents try to achieve their goals without knowledge of the other agents’ goals. We prove that this is a sound method to compute a Pareto optimal pure Nash equilibrium for an interesting class of Boolean games. Experimental results are used to investigate the performance of the algorithm.

Reduced risk of pancreatic cancer associated with asthma and nasal allergies

OBJECTIVE: Studies indicate an inverse association between ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (PDAC) and nasal allergies. However, controversial findings are reported for the association with asthma. Understanding PDAC risk factors will help us to implement appropriate strategies to prevent, treat and diagnose this cancer. This study assessed and characterised the association between PDAC and asthma and corroborated existing reports regarding the association between allergies and PDAC risk.

DESIGN: Information about asthma and allergies was collated from 1297 PDAC cases and 1024 controls included in the PanGenEU case-control study. Associations between PDAC and atopic diseases were studied using multilevel logistic regression analysis. Meta-analyses of association studies on these diseases and PDAC risk were performed applying random-effects model.

RESULTS: Asthma was associated with lower risk of PDAC (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.88), particularly long-standing asthma (>=17 years, OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.65). Meta-analysis of 10 case-control studies sustained our results (metaOR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.89). Nasal allergies and related symptoms were associated with lower risk of PDAC (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.83 and OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.77, respectively). These results were supported by a meta-analysis of nasal allergy studies (metaOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.72). Skin allergies were not associated with PDAC risk.

CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a consistent inverse association between PDAC and asthma and nasal allergies, supporting the notion that atopic diseases are associated with reduced cancer risk. These results point to the involvement of immune and/or inflammatory factors that may either foster or restrain pancreas carcinogenesis warranting further research to understand the molecular mechanisms driving this association.