Do fertility transitions influence infant mortality declines? Evidence from early modern Germany

The timing and sequencing of fertility transitions and early-life mortality declines in historical Western societies indicate that reductions in sibship (number of siblings) may have contributed to improvements in infant health. Surprisingly, however, this demographic relationship has received little attention in empirical research. We outline the difficulties associated with establishing the effect of sibship on infant mortality and discuss the inherent bias associated with conventional empirical approaches. We offer a solution that permits an empirical test of this relationship while accounting for reverse causality and potential omitted variable bias. Our approach is illustrated by evaluating the causal impact of family size on infant mortality using genealogical data from 13 German parishes spanning the sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries. Overall, our findings do not support the hypothesis that declining fertility led to increased infant survival probabilities in historical populations.

Excess mortality in Type 1 diabetes diagnosed in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review of population-based cohorts

Aims: Systematic review of mortality in childhood-/adolescent-diagnosed Type 1 diabetes and examination of factors explaining the mortality variation between studies. 
Methods: Relevant studies were identified from systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE. Observed and expected numbers of deaths were extracted, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate association between mortality and study/country characteristics.
Results: Thirteen relevant publications with mortality data were identified describing 23 independent studies. SMRs varied markedly ranging from 0 to 854 (chi-squared = 70.68,df = 21, p<0.0001). Significant associations were observed between SMR and mid-year of follow-up [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.95, 95 % CI 0.91–0.99 equivalent to a 5 % decrease per year], between SMR and infant mortality rate (IRR 1.07, 95 % CI 1.02–1.12, a 7 % increase for each death per 1,000 live births) and, after omitting an outlier, between SMR and health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (IRR 0.79, 95 % CI 0.68–0.93, a 21 % decrease for each one percent increase in GDP). No relationship was detected between SMR and a country’s childhood diabetes incidence rate or GDP.
Conclusions: Excess mortality in childhood-/adolescent diagnosed Type 1 diabetes is apparent across countries worldwide. Excesses were less marked in more recent studies and in countries with lower infant mortality and higher health expenditure.

Impact of different health systems on the burden of type 2 diabetes in two populations

Objectives: Health policy directs the management of patients with chronic disease in a country, but evaluating nationwide policies is difficult, not least because of the absence of suitable comparators. This paper examines the management of patients with type 2 diabetes in two demographically comparable populations with different health care systems to see if this represents a viable approach to evaluation.

Methods: A secondary analysis of centralized prescribing databases for 2010 was undertaken to compare the levels and costs of care of patients with type 2 diabetes in Northern Ireland’s National Health Service (NHS) (NI, n = 1.8 million) which has structured care, financial incentives related to diabetes care and an emphasis on generic prescribing, with that of the Republic of Ireland (ROI, n = 4.3 million) where management of diabetes care is guided solely by clinical and other guidelines.

Results: The prevalence of treated type 2 diabetes was 3.59% in NI and 3.09% in ROI, but there were similar and high levels of prescribing of secondary cardiovascular medications. Medication costs per person for anti-diabetic, anti-obesity and cardiovascular medication were 46% higher in ROI than NI, due to differences in levels of generic prescribing.

Conclusions: These different health care systems appear to be producing similar levels of care for patients with type 2 diabetes, although at different levels of cost. The findings question the need for financial incentives in NI and highlight the large cost savings potentially accruing from a greater shift to generic prescribing in ROI. Cross-country comparison, though not without difficulties, may prove a useful adjunct to within-country analysis of policy impact.

Progress and the Lack of Progress in Addressing Infant Health and Infant Health Inequalities in Ireland during the 20th Century

There is a growing literature which documents the importance of early life environment for outcomes across the life cycle. Research, including studies based on Irish data, demonstrates that those who experience better childhood conditions go on to be wealthier and healthier adults. Therefore, inequalities at birth and in childhood shape inequality in wellbeing in later life, and the historical evolution of the mortality and morbidity of children born in Ireland is important for understanding the current status of the Irish population. In this paper, I describe these patterns by reviewing the existing literature on infant health in Ireland over the course of the 20th century. Up to the 1950s, infant mortality in Ireland (both North and South) was substantially higher than in other developed countries, with a large penalty for those born in urban areas. The subsequent reduction in this penalty, and the sustained decline in infant death rates, occurred later than would be expected from the experience in other contexts. Using records from the Rotunda Lying-in Hospital in Dublin, I discuss sources of disparities in stillbirth in the early 1900s. Despite impressive improvements in death rates since that time, a comparison with those born at the end of the century reveals that Irish children continue to be born unequal. Evidence from studies which track people across the life course, for example research on the returns to birthweight, suggests that the economic cost of this early life inequality is substantial.

Is childhood type 1 diabetes a wealth-related disease? An ecological analysis of European incidence rates

Aims/Hypothesis: To describe the epidemiology of childhood-onset Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes in Europe, the EURODIAB collaborative group has established prospective, geographically-defined registers of children diagnosed under 15 years. A total of 16,362 cases were registered by 44 centres during the period 1989-1994. The registers cover a population of approximately 28 million children with most European countries represented. Methods In most centres a primary and a secondary source of ascertainment were used so that the completeness of registration could be assessed by the capture-recapture method. Ecological correlation and regression analyses were used to study the relationship between incidence and various environmental, health and economic indicators. Findings: The standardised average annual incidence rate during the period 1989-94 ranged from 3.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia to 40.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in Finland. Indicators of national prosperity such as infant mortality (r= -0.64) and gross domestic product (r= 0.58) were most strongly and significantly correlated with incidence rate, and previously-reported associations with coffee consumption (r= 0.51), milk consumption (r= 0.58) and latitude (r= 0.40) were also observed. Conclusion/Interpretation: The wide variation in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rates within Europe could be partially explained by indicators of national prosperity. These indicators could reflect differences in environmental risk factors such as nutrition or lifestyle that are important in determining a country's incidence rate.

Genetics of Healthy Aging in Europe.The EU-Integrated Project GEHA (GEnetics of Healthy Aging)

The aim of the 5-year European Union (EU)-Integrated Project GEnetics of Healthy Aging (GEHA), constituted by 25 partners (24 from Europe plus the Beijing Genomics Institute from China), is to identify genes involved in healthy aging and longevity, which allow individuals to survive to advanced old age in good cognitive and physical function and in the absence of major age-related diseases. To achieve this aim a coherent, tightly integrated program of research that unites demographers, geriatricians, geneticists, genetic epidemiologists, molecular biologists, bioinfomaticians, and statisticians has been set up. The working plan is to: (a) collect DNA and information on the health status from an unprecedented number of long-lived 90+ sibpairs (n = 2650) and of younger ethnically matched controls (n = 2650) from 11 European countries; (b) perform a genome-wide linkage scannning in all the sibpairs (a total of 5300 individuals); this investigation will be followed by linkage disequilibrium mapping (LD mapping) of the candidate chromosomal regions; (c) study in cases (i.e., the 2650 probands of the sibpairs) and controls (2650 younger people), genomic regions (chromosome 4, D4S1564, chromosome 11, 11.p15.5) which were identified in previous studies as possible candidates to harbor longevity genes; (d) genotype all recruited subjects for apoE polymorphisms; and (e) genotype all recruited subjects for inherited as well as epigenetic variability of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). The genetic analysis will be performed by 9 high-throughput platforms, within the framework of centralized databases for phenotypic, genetic, and mtDNA data. Additional advanced approaches (bioinformatics, advanced statistics, mathematical modeling, functional genomics and proteomics, molecular biology, molecular genetics) are envisaged to identify the gene variant(s) of interest. The experimental design will also allow (a) to identify gender-specific genes involved in healthy aging and longevity in women and men stratified for ethnic and geographic origin and apoE genotype; (b) to perform a longitudinal survival study to assess the impact of the identified genetic loci on 90+ people mortality; and (c) to develop mathematical and statistical models capable of combining genetic data with demographic characteristics, health status, socioeconomic factors, lifestyle habits.

Do perinatal and early life exposures influence the risk of malignant melanoma?:A Northern Ireland birth cohort analysis

Aim: Intrauterine, early life and maternal exposures may have important consequences for cancer development in later life. The aim of this study was to examine perinatal and birth characteristics with respect to Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) risk. Methods: The Northern Ireland Child Health System database was used to examine gestational age adjusted birth weight, infant feeding practices, parental age and socioeconomic factors at birth in relation to CMM risk amongst 447,663 infants delivered between January 1971 and December 1986. Follow-up of histologically verified CMM cases was undertaken from the beginning of 1993 to 31st December 2007. Multivariable adjusted unconditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of CMM risk. Results: A total of 276 CMM cases and 440,336 controls contributed to the final analysis. In reference to normal (gestational age-adjusted) weight babies, those heaviest at birth were twice as likely to develop CMM OR 2.4 (95% CI 1.1-5.1). Inverse associations with CMM risk were observed with younger (

Known risk factors for violence predict 12-month-old infants' aggressiveness with peers

This study tested the hypothesis that 12-month-old infants' use of force against peers is associated with known risk factors for violence. We conducted a prospective longitudinal study, which included laboratory observations of firstborn British infants (N = 271) during simulated birthday parties. No gender differences in aggressiveness were observed. The infants' observed aggressiveness was significantly correlated with mothers' mood disorder during pregnancy and with mothers' history of conduct problems. Infants' observed aggressiveness was correlated with parents' ratings of infants' anger and aggression, which were also predicted by mothers' mood disorder and history of conduct problems. Our findings indicate that infants at risk for serious aggression can already be identified when the motor ability to use physical force first enters the human repertoire.

The role of angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors in the second trimester in the prediction of preeclampsia in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes

OBJECTIVE To assess the association between circulating angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors in the second trimester and risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Maternal plasma concentrations of placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1), and soluble endoglin (sEng) were available at 26 weeks of gestation in 540 women with type 1 diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes and Preeclampsia Intervention Trial.

RESULTS Preeclampsia developed in 17% of pregnancies (n = 94). At 26 weeks of gestation, women in whom preeclampsia developed later had significantly lower PlGF (median [interquartile range]: 231 pg/mL [120–423] vs. 365 pg/mL [237–582]; P < 0.001), higher sFlt-1 (1,522 pg/mL [1,108–3,393] vs. 1,193 pg/mL [844–1,630] P < 0.001), and higher sEng (6.2 ng/mL [4.9–7.9] vs. 5.1 ng/mL[(4.3–6.2]; P < 0.001) compared with women who did not have preeclampsia. In addition, the ratio of PlGF to sEng was significantly lower (40 [17–71] vs. 71 [44–114]; P < 0.001) and the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF was significantly higher (6.3 [3.4–15.7] vs. 3.1 [1.8–5.8]; P < 0.001) in women who later developed preeclampsia. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to a logistic model containing established risk factors (area under the curve [AUC], 0.813) significantly improved the predictive value (AUC, 0.850 and 0.846, respectively; P < 0.01) and significantly improved reclassification according to the integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) (IDI scores 0.086 and 0.065, respectively; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors measured during the second trimester are predictive of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to established clinical risk factors significantly improves the prediction of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.

Preeclampsia is characterized by the development of hypertension and new-onset proteinuria during the second half of pregnancy (1,2), leading to increased maternal morbidity and mortality (3). Women with type 1 diabetes are at increased risk for development of preeclampsia during pregnancy, with rates being two-times to four-times higher than that of the background maternity population (4,5). Small advances have come from preventive measures, such as low-dose aspirin in women at high risk (6); however, delivery remains the only effective intervention, and preeclampsia is responsible for up to 15% of preterm births and a consequent increase in infant mortality and morbidity (7).

Although the etiology of preeclampsia remains unclear, abnormal placental vascular remodeling and placental ischemia, together with maternal endothelial dysfunction, hemodynamic changes, and renal pathology, contribute to its pathogenesis (8). In addition, over the past decade accumulating evidence has suggested that an imbalance between angiogenic factors, such as placental growth factor (PlGF), and antiangiogenic factors, such as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) and soluble endoglin (sEng), plays a key role in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia (8,9). In women at low risk (10–13) and women at high risk (14,15), concentrations of angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors are significantly different between women who later develop preeclampsia (lower PlGF, higher sFlt-1, and higher sEng levels) compared with women who do not.

Few studies have specifically focused on circulating angiogenic factors and risk of preeclampsia in women with diabetes, and the results have been conflicting. In a small study, higher sFlt-1 and lower PlGF were reported at the time of delivery in women with diabetes who developed preeclampsia (16). In a longitudinal prospective cohort of pregnant women with diabetes, Yu et al. (17) reported increased sFlt-1 and reduced PlGF in the early third trimester as potential predictors of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes, but they did not show any difference in sEng levels in women with preeclampsia compared with women without preeclampsia. By contrast, Powers et al. (18) reported only increased sEng in the second trimester in women with pregestational diabetes who developed preeclampsia.

The aim of this study, which was significantly larger than the previous studies highlighted, was to assess the association between circulating angiogenic (PlGF) and antiangiogenic (sFlt-1 and sEng) factors and the risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. A further aim was to evaluate the added predictive ability and clinical usefulness of angiogenic factors and established risk factors for preeclampsia risk prediction in women with type 1 diabetes.