'Trusting the numbers': mineral prospecting, raising finance and the governance of knowledge

Mineral prospecting and raising finance for ‘junior’ mining firms has historically been regarded as a speculative activity. For the regulators of securities markets upon which ‘junior’ mining companies seek to raise capital, a perennial problem has been handling not only the indeterminacy of scientific claims, but also the social basis of epistemic practices. This paper examines the production of a system of public warrant and associated knowledge practices intended to enable investors to differentiate between ‘destructive’ and ‘productive’ varieties of financial speculation. It traces the use of the notion of ‘disclosure’ in constructing and legitimizing the ‘juniors’ market in Canada. It argues that though the work of ‘economics’ may be necessary in the construction of markets, it is by no means sufficient. Attention must also be given to the ways in which legal models of ‘the free-market’ can be translated and constantly re-worked across the sites and spaces of regulatory practice, animating the geographies of markets.

'Trusting the numbers': mineral prospecting, raising finance and the governance of knowledge

Mineral prospecting and raising finance for ‘junior’ mining firms has historically been regarded as a speculative activity. For the regulators of securities markets upon which ‘junior’ mining companies seek to raise capital, a perennial problem has been handling not only the indeterminacy of scientific claims, but also the social basis of epistemic practices. This paper examines the production of a system of public warrant and associated knowledge practices intended to enable investors to differentiate between ‘destructive’ and ‘productive’ varieties of financial speculation. It traces the use of the notion of ‘disclosure’ in constructing and legitimizing the ‘juniors’ market in Canada. It argues that though the work of ‘economics’ may be necessary in the construction of markets, it is by no means sufficient. Attention must also be given to the ways in which legal models of ‘the free-market’ can be translated and constantly re-worked across the sites and spaces of regulatory practice, animating the geographies of markets.

The statistical significance of randomized controlled trial results is frequently fragile: A case for a Fragility Index

Objectives

A P-value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost with small changes in the numbers of outcomes.

Study Design and Setting

A review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P-value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result.

Results

The 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15-112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8-5,142); 53% reported a P-value <0.01. The median Fragility Index was 8 (range: 0-109); 25% had a Fragility Index of 3 or less. In 53% of trials, the Fragility Index was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up.

Conclusion

The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events. The Fragility Index complements the P-value and helps identify less robust results. 

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.

Lung clearance index in adults and children with cystic fibrosis

Background: Lung clearance index (LCI) has good clinimetric properties and an acceptable feasibility profile as a surrogate endpoint in Cystic Fibrosis (CF). Although most studies to date have been in children, increasing numbers of adults with CF also have normal spirometry. Further study of LCI as an endpoint in CF adults is required. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the clinimetric properties of LCI over the complete age range of people with CF. Methods: Clinically stable adults and children with CF and age matched healthy controls were recruited. Results: LCI and spirometry data for 110 CF subjects and 61 controls were collected at a stable visit. CF Questionnaire-Revised (CFQ-R) was completed by 80/110 CF subjects. Fifty-six CF subjects completed a second stable visit. The LCI CV% was 4.1% in adults and 6.3% in children with CF. The coefficient of repeatability of LCI was 1.2 in adults and 1.3 in children. In both adults and children, LCI (AUCROC=0.93 and 0.84) had greater combined sensitivity and specificity to discriminate between people with CF and controls compared to FEV1 (AUCROC=0.88 and 0.60) and FEF25-75 (AUCROC=0.87 and 0.68). LCI correlated significantly with the CFQ-R treatment burden in adults (r=-0.37; p<0.01) and children (r=-0.50; p<0.01). Washout tests were successful in 90% of CF subjects and were perceived as comfortable and easy to perform in both adults and children. Conclusions: These data support the use of LCI as a surrogate outcome measure in CF clinical trials in adults as well as children.